ScoreProb
U19 Bundesliga Germany Preliminary 2026

St. Pauli U19 vs BAK 07 U19

St. Pauli U19 Home · Elo 1,579
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
BAK 07 U19 Away · Elo 1,454
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: St. Pauli U19 win
St. Pauli U19 winPick
64.6%
Draw
18.5%
BAK 07 U19 win
17.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.9%
No42.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.574.8%
Under 2.525.2%

How much we know

St. Pauli U19 history44 matches
BAK 07 U19 history40 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (64.6%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why St. Pauli U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • St. Pauli U19 are rated 126 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,579 against 1,454. On rating alone St. Pauli U19 would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • St. Pauli U19 score more

    2.18 goals a game over 44 matches for St. Pauli U19, against 1.58 over 40 for BAK 07 U19.

  • St. Pauli U19 concede fewer

    St. Pauli U19 concede 1.30 a game, BAK 07 U19 1.95.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    68% of St. Pauli U19 matches, against 73% for BAK 07 U19. The model puts this match at 75% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
St. Pauli U19
BAK 07 U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1579.3
ELO
1453.5
44
ELO · Matches
40
1579.3
Current Team ELO
1453.5
1453.5
Current Opponent ELO
1579.3
125.8
Current ELO Difference
-125.8
0.67
Expected score
0.33
44
History Matches
40
0.09
Residual Mean
-0.05
55.87
Overperformance
46.73
0.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.19
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.20
2.80
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.40
PPG
0.60
3.10
Goals for per game
1.00
0.80
Goals against per game
2.10
70.0%
Win rate
20.0%
3.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
2.07
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.34
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
2.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.92
Overall performance9 signals
90
44
Matches
40
1.75
PPG
1.28
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
7.5%
25.0%
Loss rate
52.5%
84.1%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
68.2%
Over 2.5 rate
72.5%
47.7%
Over 3.5 rate
45.0%
2.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.47
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
18
1.86
PPG
0.83
52.4%
Win rate
27.8%
28.6%
Draw rate
0.0%
19.0%
Loss rate
72.2%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
94.4%
76.2%
Over 2.5 rate
83.3%
57.1%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.19
21
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.18
Goals for per game
1.58
84.1%
Scoring rate
67.5%
59.1%
BTTS rate
52.5%
2.29
Goals for per game
1.33
90.5%
Scoring rate
66.7%
61.9%
BTTS rate
61.1%
1.67
Goals for per game
1.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
44
History Matches
40
2.18
Goals Mean
1.58
1.72
Goals Std
1.58
84.1%
Scored 1+ rate
67.5%
59.1%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
38.6%
Scored 3+ rate
27.5%
2.29
Venue Goals Mean
1.33
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.30
Goals against per game
1.95
68.2%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.19
Goals against per game
2.67
66.7%
Conceding rate
94.4%
0.67
Goals against per game
1.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
44
History Matches
40
1.30
Conceded Mean
1.95
1.14
Conceded Std
1.55
40.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
57.5%
18.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
30.0%
1.19
Venue Conceded Mean
2.67
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
15.9%
Failed-to-score rate
32.5%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
5.6%
9.5%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
15.9%
Failed-to-score rate
32.5%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
5.6%
9.5%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
44
History Matches
40
0.95
Result entropy
0.82
2.12
Goal Difference Std
2.47
5.36
Stability score
18.16
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
44
Eligible Matches
40
18
Lead Matches
13
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
76.9%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.77
11
Trailing Matches
17
27.3%
Non-loss rate
11.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
44
Halftime Coverage Matches
40
0.91
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.66
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
1.27
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.03
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.08
Rest days
76.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
21
Normal Rest History Matches
22
1.67
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.18
21
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.95
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.29
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.33
PPG
1.00
66.7%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.33
Current Competition PPG
1.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.33
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.35
Portability PPG Std
0.33
0.83
Portability PPG Range
0.73
59.02
Portability Score
59.99
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
44
Clean History Matches
40
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO125.8
PPG0.48
GF0.61
GA-0.65
PPG1.33
PPG1.02
PPG1.00
PPG1.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate11.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate27.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches4
Goals Mean0.61
Goals Std0.14
Scored 1+ rate16.6%
Scored 2+ rate19.1%
Scored 3+ rate11.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.95
Recent 10 Goals Mean2.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.73
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.65
Conceded Std-0.41
Clean-sheet rate11.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.17
Conceded 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Conceded Mean-1.48
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.04
History Matches4
Result entropy0.13
Goal Difference Std-0.34
Stability score-12.80
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.13
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate6.4%
Lead Points Retention0.12
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate15.5%
Trailing Win Rate-0.12
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.27
Second Half Goals For Mean0.40
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.39
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.67
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.01
Portability PPG Range0.11
Portability Score-0.98
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.48
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.66
Current Team ELO125.8
Current Opponent ELO-125.8
Current ELO Difference251.6
Expected score0.35
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.13
Overperformance9.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.44

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

St. Pauli U19

D
Magdeburg U191–1St. Pauli U1931 Oct · away
Pick: St. Pauli U19 48% · missed
L
Hamburger SV U193–2St. Pauli U1918 Oct · away
Pick: St. Pauli U19 44% · missed
L
St. Pauli U191–2Köln U1930 Aug · home
Pick: St. Pauli U19 49% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

BAK 07 U19

L
Hansa Rostock U194–1BAK 07 U1917 Oct · away
Pick: BAK 07 U19 48% · missed
L
BAK 07 U191–2Karlsruher SC U1929 Aug · home
Pick: Karlsruher SC U19 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

St. Pauli U19 and BAK 07 U19 meet in U19 Bundesliga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: St. Pauli U19 win 64.6%, draw 18.5%, BAK 07 U19 win 17.0%. The pick is St. Pauli U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 74.8%. Both teams to score: 57.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.