ScoreProb
Championship Northern Ireland Round 15 2026

Strabane Athletic vs Annagh United

Strabane Athletic Home · Elo 1,525
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Annagh United Away · Elo 1,549
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Annagh United win
Strabane Athletic win
29.7%
Draw
23.0%
Annagh United winPick
47.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.0%
No37.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.5%
Under 2.535.5%

How much we know

Strabane Athletic history24 matches
Annagh United history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Annagh United are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,525 against 1,549. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Strabane Athletic score more

    1.92 goals a game over 24 matches for Strabane Athletic, against 1.69 over 64 for Annagh United.

  • Annagh United concede fewer

    Strabane Athletic concede 1.92 a game, Annagh United 1.34.

  • Strabane Athletic games more often go over 2.5 goals

    79% of Strabane Athletic matches, against 56% for Annagh United. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Strabane Athletic
Annagh United
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1525.3
ELO
1548.5
24
ELO · Matches
64
1525.3
Current Team ELO
1548.5
1548.5
Current Opponent ELO
1525.3
-23.28
Current ELO Difference
23.28
0.47
Expected score
0.53
24
History Matches
64
0.05
Residual Mean
0.03
52.81
Overperformance
52.63
-0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
2.20
1.80
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.40
1.50
Goals for per game
2.00
2.20
Goals against per game
2.30
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.48
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
1.78
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.19
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
24
Matches
64
1.75
PPG
1.80
54.2%
Win rate
54.7%
12.5%
Draw rate
15.6%
33.3%
Loss rate
29.7%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
79.7%
79.2%
Over 2.5 rate
56.3%
54.2%
Over 3.5 rate
34.4%
2.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
Venue performance10 signals
100
12
Matches
32
2.17
PPG
1.53
66.7%
Win rate
46.9%
16.7%
Draw rate
12.5%
16.7%
Loss rate
40.6%
91.7%
Over 1.5 rate
71.9%
83.3%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
34.4%
1.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.36
12
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.92
Goals for per game
1.69
83.3%
Scoring rate
75.0%
70.8%
BTTS rate
48.4%
2.08
Goals for per game
1.50
91.7%
Scoring rate
62.5%
83.3%
BTTS rate
40.6%
1.25
Goals for per game
2.25
75.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
24
History Matches
64
1.92
Goals Mean
1.69
1.38
Goals Std
1.48
83.3%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
62.5%
Scored 2+ rate
51.6%
25.0%
Scored 3+ rate
23.4%
2.08
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.92
Goals against per game
1.34
87.5%
Conceding rate
70.3%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.53
91.7%
Conceding rate
71.9%
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
24
History Matches
64
1.92
Conceded Mean
1.34
1.63
Conceded Std
1.19
41.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.6%
25.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.2%
1.33
Venue Conceded Mean
1.53
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.7%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
8.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.7%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
8.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.1%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
24
History Matches
64
0.87
Result entropy
0.89
2.33
Goal Difference Std
2.03
12.78
Stability score
10.74
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
16
Eligible Matches
61
8
Lead Matches
26
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
88.5%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.91
7
Trailing Matches
18
28.6%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
16
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
1.13
First Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.94
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.94
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.24
Rest days
76.24
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
10
Normal Rest History Matches
48
1.80
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.85
12
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.64
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.75
PPG
1.75
25.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.75
Current Competition PPG
1.75
-0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.25
5
Competition Season Count
10
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.99
Portability PPG Std
0.30
2.28
Portability PPG Range
0.82
33.51
Portability Score
62.28
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
24
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-23.28
PPG-0.05
GF0.23
GA0.57
PPG-1.00
PPG0.64
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-40
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches-20
Clean-sheet rate-0.20
Failed-to-score rate-0.29
History Matches-40
Goals Mean0.23
Goals Std-0.10
Scored 1+ rate8.3%
Scored 2+ rate10.9%
Scored 3+ rate1.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.58
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.12
History Matches-40
Conceded Mean0.57
Conceded Std0.44
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate1.0%
Conceded 3+ rate7.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.59
History Matches-40
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.29
Stability score2.04
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.00
Eligible Matches-45
Lead Matches-18
Lead Win Rate-0.01
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches-11
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches-45
First Half Goals For Mean0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean0.35
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-5
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.69
Portability PPG Range1.46
Portability Score-28.78
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-38
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.05
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.02
Current Team ELO-23.28
Current Opponent ELO23.28
Current ELO Difference-46.56
Expected score-0.07
History Matches-40
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Strabane Athletic

D
Rathfriland2–2Strabane Athletic30 Oct · away
Pick: Strabane Athletic 50% · missed
L
Strabane Athletic0–1Ballinamallard United23 Oct · home
Pick: Ballinamallard United 39% · hit
L
Strabane Athletic0–5Glenavon FC20 Oct · home
Pick: Glenavon FC 51% · hit
D
Strabane Athletic1–1Loughgall16 Oct · home
Pick: Loughgall 49% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Annagh United

W
Loughgall0–3Annagh United31 Oct · away
Pick: Loughgall 49% · missed
W
Annagh United5–1Queen's University24 Oct · home
Pick: Annagh United 45% · hit
L
Annagh United3–4Limavady United20 Oct · home
Pick: Limavady United 40% · hit
W
Armagh City1–3Annagh United17 Oct · away
Pick: Annagh United 62% · hit
W
Ballinamallard United1–3Annagh United29 Aug · away
Pick: Annagh United 45% · hit

About this match

Strabane Athletic and Annagh United meet in Championship on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Strabane Athletic win 29.7%, draw 23.0%, Annagh United win 47.2%. The pick is Annagh United win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.5%. Both teams to score: 63.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.