ScoreProb
Championship Northern Ireland Round 15 2026

Ballinamallard United vs Rathfriland

Ballinamallard United Home · Elo 1,416
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Rathfriland Away · Elo 1,467
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ballinamallard United win
Ballinamallard United winPick
63.0%
Draw
15.8%
Rathfriland win
21.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.9%
No46.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.1%
Under 2.533.9%

How much we know

Ballinamallard United history64 matches
Rathfriland history16 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (63.0%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Ballinamallard United are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Rathfriland are rated 51 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,467 against 1,416. On rating alone Rathfriland would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Rathfriland score far more

    1.08 goals a game over 64 matches for Ballinamallard United, against 1.81 over 16 for Rathfriland.

  • Ballinamallard United concede fewer

    Ballinamallard United concede 1.52 a game, Rathfriland 2.00.

  • Rathfriland games more often go over 2.5 goals

    53% of Ballinamallard United matches, against 88% for Rathfriland. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ballinamallard United
Rathfriland
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1416.4
ELO
1467.0
64
ELO · Matches
16
1416.4
Current Team ELO
1467.0
1467.0
Current Opponent ELO
1416.4
-50.68
Current ELO Difference
50.68
0.43
Expected score
0.57
64
History Matches
16
-0.06
Residual Mean
-0.10
45.38
Overperformance
45.47
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
1.40
Goals against per game
2.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.20
1.30
Goals for per game
1.80
1.00
Goals against per game
2.10
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.79
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.33
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.70
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
2.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.53
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
16
1.08
PPG
1.13
28.1%
Win rate
37.5%
23.4%
Draw rate
0.0%
48.4%
Loss rate
62.5%
68.8%
Over 1.5 rate
93.8%
53.1%
Over 2.5 rate
87.5%
29.7%
Over 3.5 rate
56.3%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.35
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
8
1.36
PPG
1.50
36.4%
Win rate
50.0%
27.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
36.4%
Loss rate
50.0%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
62.5%
1.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.71
33
History Matches
8
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.08
Goals for per game
1.81
56.3%
Scoring rate
87.5%
40.6%
BTTS rate
68.8%
1.30
Goals for per game
2.00
63.6%
Scoring rate
87.5%
45.5%
BTTS rate
62.5%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
64
History Matches
16
1.08
Goals Mean
1.81
1.25
Goals Std
1.24
56.3%
Scored 1+ rate
87.5%
31.3%
Scored 2+ rate
56.3%
14.1%
Scored 3+ rate
18.8%
1.30
Venue Goals Mean
2.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.52
Goals against per game
2.00
76.6%
Conceding rate
81.3%
1.27
Goals against per game
1.88
78.8%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.25
Goals against per game
3.25
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
64
History Matches
16
1.52
Conceded Mean
2.00
1.27
Conceded Std
1.50
40.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
56.3%
23.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
37.5%
1.27
Venue Conceded Mean
1.88
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.4%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
43.8%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
21.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
23.4%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
43.8%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
21.2%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
23.4%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
16
0.95
Result entropy
0.60
1.98
Goal Difference Std
2.35
4.61
Stability score
39.78
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
12
12
Lead Matches
4
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.61
Lead Points Retention
1.00
22
Trailing Matches
4
4.5%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
12
0.34
First Half Goals For Mean
0.92
0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.08
0.56
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.08
0.88
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.24
Rest days
76.24
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
49
Normal Rest History Matches
4
1.22
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.75
14
Long Rest History Matches
11
0.64
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.36
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.50
PPG
0.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.09
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.50
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.25
8
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.34
Portability PPG Std
0.94
0.83
Portability PPG Range
1.88
59.69
Portability Score
34.78
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
16
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-50.68
PPG-0.05
GF-0.73
GA-0.48
PPG1.50
PPG-0.14
PPG0.60
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches48
Clean-sheet rate4.7%
Failed-to-score rate31.3%
History Matches25
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate23.9%
History Matches48
Goals Mean-0.73
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate-0.31
Scored 2+ rate-0.25
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.46
History Matches48
Conceded Mean-0.48
Conceded Std-0.23
Clean-sheet rate4.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.16
Conceded 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.93
History Matches48
Result entropy0.35
Goal Difference Std-0.38
Stability score-35.17
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.43
Eligible Matches47
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate-0.50
Lead Points Retention-0.39
Trailing Matches18
Non-loss rate4.5%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches47
First Half Goals For Mean-0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.39
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.52
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.60
Portability PPG Range-1.04
Portability Score24.90
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches45
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.47
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.72
Current Team ELO-50.68
Current Opponent ELO50.68
Current ELO Difference-101.4
Expected score-0.14
History Matches48
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ballinamallard United

L
Ballinamallard United0–1Armagh City31 Oct · home
Pick: Ballinamallard United 61% · missed
W
Strabane Athletic0–1Ballinamallard United23 Oct · away
Pick: Ballinamallard United 39% · hit
D
Ballinamallard United2–2Warrenpoint Town17 Oct · home
Pick: Ballinamallard United 43% · missed
L
Ballinamallard United1–3Annagh United29 Aug · home
Pick: Annagh United 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Rathfriland

D
Rathfriland2–2Strabane Athletic30 Oct · home
Pick: Strabane Athletic 50% · missed
W
Dundela0–1Rathfriland17 Oct · away
Pick: Dundela 62% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Ballinamallard United and Rathfriland meet in Championship on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Ballinamallard United win 63.0%, draw 15.8%, Rathfriland win 21.2%. The pick is Ballinamallard United win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.1%. Both teams to score: 53.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.