ScoreProb
Championship Northern Ireland Round 15 2026

Moyola Park vs Newry City AFC

Moyola Park Home · Elo 1,487
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Newry City AFC Away · Elo 1,495
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Moyola Park win
Moyola Park winPick
48.7%
Draw
22.9%
Newry City AFC win
28.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.3%
No43.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.3%
Under 2.539.7%

How much we know

Moyola Park history27 matches
Newry City AFC history35 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Moyola Park are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,487 against 1,495. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Moyola Park score more

    1.78 goals a game over 27 matches for Moyola Park, against 1.29 over 35 for Newry City AFC.

  • Newry City AFC concede fewer

    Moyola Park concede 1.56 a game, Newry City AFC 1.40.

  • Moyola Park games more often go over 2.5 goals

    74% of Moyola Park matches, against 57% for Newry City AFC. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Moyola Park
Newry City AFC
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1486.8
ELO
1494.7
27
ELO · Matches
35
1486.8
Current Team ELO
1494.7
1494.7
Current Opponent ELO
1486.8
-7.90
Current ELO Difference
7.90
0.49
Expected score
0.51
27
History Matches
35
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.00
49.54
Overperformance
49.99
-0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
2.00
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.60
1.50
Goals for per game
0.80
1.90
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.69
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.56
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.65
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.91
Overall performance9 signals
90
27
Matches
35
1.44
PPG
1.43
44.4%
Win rate
42.9%
11.1%
Draw rate
14.3%
44.4%
Loss rate
42.9%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
74.3%
74.1%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
40.7%
Over 3.5 rate
25.7%
2.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
Venue performance10 signals
100
16
Matches
16
1.56
PPG
1.25
50.0%
Win rate
37.5%
6.3%
Draw rate
12.5%
43.8%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
81.3%
87.5%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
56.3%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
2.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
16
History Matches
16
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.78
Goals for per game
1.29
77.8%
Scoring rate
80.0%
55.6%
BTTS rate
42.9%
2.31
Goals for per game
1.25
87.5%
Scoring rate
87.5%
62.5%
BTTS rate
56.3%
1.25
Goals for per game
1.00
75.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
27
History Matches
35
1.78
Goals Mean
1.29
1.62
Goals Std
0.94
77.8%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
44.4%
Scored 2+ rate
34.3%
25.9%
Scored 3+ rate
14.3%
2.31
Venue Goals Mean
1.25
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.56
Goals against per game
1.40
74.1%
Conceding rate
60.0%
1.63
Goals against per game
1.75
75.0%
Conceding rate
68.8%
1.75
Goals against per game
2.00
75.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
27
History Matches
35
1.56
Conceded Mean
1.40
1.10
Conceded Std
1.44
59.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.0%
22.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.6%
1.63
Venue Conceded Mean
1.75
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.3%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
27
History Matches
35
0.88
Result entropy
0.91
2.25
Goal Difference Std
2.00
12.17
Stability score
8.59
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
19
Eligible Matches
31
6
Lead Matches
12
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
91.7%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.92
7
Trailing Matches
9
14.3%
Non-loss rate
11.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
19
Halftime Coverage Matches
31
0.84
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.89
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.24
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
9
Normal Rest History Matches
16
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.13
17
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.76
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.78
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.00
PPG
1.50
25.0%
Win rate
50.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
8
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.65
Portability PPG Std
0.51
1.65
Portability PPG Range
1.42
43.66
Portability Score
49.69
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
27
Clean History Matches
35
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-7.90
PPG0.02
GF0.49
GA0.16
PPG-0.50
PPG0.31
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate2.2%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches-8
Goals Mean0.49
Goals Std0.67
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate10.2%
Scored 3+ rate11.6%
Venue Goals Mean1.06
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.94
History Matches-8
Conceded Mean0.16
Conceded Std-0.34
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Conceded 2+ rate19.3%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.13
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.43
History Matches-8
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.25
Stability score3.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.75
Eligible Matches-12
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate3.2%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-12
First Half Goals For Mean0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.14
Portability PPG Range0.23
Portability Score-6.03
Rest days-0.80
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.13
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.01
Current Team ELO-7.90
Current Opponent ELO7.90
Current ELO Difference-15.79
Expected score-0.02
History Matches-8
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.45
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Moyola Park

D
Institute1–1Moyola Park31 Oct · away
Pick: Institute 46% · missed
W
Dundela1–4Moyola Park20 Oct · away
Pick: Dundela 55% · missed
L
Moyola Park2–3Newington Youth16 Oct · home
Pick: Newington Youth 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Newry City AFC

D
Ards1–1Newry City AFC31 Oct · away
Pick: Ards 62% · missed
L
Newry City AFC0–2Newington Youth23 Oct · home
Pick: Newington Youth 56% · hit
L
Carrick Rangers3–0Newry City AFC20 Oct · away
Pick: Carrick Rangers 66% · hit
D
Queen's University1–1Newry City AFC17 Oct · away
Pick: Queen's University 56% · missed
W
Institute1–3Newry City AFC29 Aug · away
Pick: Institute 54% · missed

About this match

Moyola Park and Newry City AFC meet in Championship on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Moyola Park win 48.7%, draw 22.9%, Newry City AFC win 28.4%. The pick is Moyola Park win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.3%. Both teams to score: 56.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.