ScoreProb
UEFA Europa League World Round 4 2026

Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb

Sunderland Home · Elo 1,563
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Dinamo Zagreb Away · Elo 1,737
Stadium of Light, Sunderland Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Dinamo Zagreb win
Sunderland win
25.3%
Draw
24.7%
Dinamo Zagreb winPick
50.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.2%
No49.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.3%
Under 2.545.7%

How much we know

Sunderland history75 matches
Dinamo Zagreb history83 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (50.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Dinamo Zagreb are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Dinamo Zagreb are rated 174 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,737 against 1,563. On rating alone Dinamo Zagreb would be expected to take 73% of the points on offer.

  • Dinamo Zagreb score far more

    1.07 goals a game over 75 matches for Sunderland, against 2.45 over 83 for Dinamo Zagreb.

  • Dinamo Zagreb concede fewer

    Sunderland concede 1.23 a game, Dinamo Zagreb 0.99.

  • Dinamo Zagreb games more often go over 2.5 goals

    43% of Sunderland matches, against 69% for Dinamo Zagreb. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sunderland
Dinamo Zagreb
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1563.2
ELO
1737.3
75
ELO · Matches
83
1563.2
Current Team ELO
1737.3
1737.3
Current Opponent ELO
1563.2
-174.1
Current ELO Difference
174.1
0.27
Expected score
0.73
75
History Matches
83
0.04
Residual Mean
0.15
52.83
Overperformance
61.71
0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.60
1.20
Goals for per game
3.20
0.80
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
2.20
1.80
Goals for per game
2.50
1.10
Goals against per game
0.90
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.50
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.68
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.69
Overall performance9 signals
90
75
Matches
83
1.36
PPG
2.14
37.3%
Win rate
66.3%
24.0%
Draw rate
15.7%
38.7%
Loss rate
18.1%
65.3%
Over 1.5 rate
89.2%
42.7%
Over 2.5 rate
68.7%
14.7%
Over 3.5 rate
47.0%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.32
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
39
1.41
PPG
2.00
38.2%
Win rate
61.5%
26.5%
Draw rate
15.4%
35.3%
Loss rate
23.1%
58.8%
Over 1.5 rate
89.7%
38.2%
Over 2.5 rate
64.1%
14.7%
Over 3.5 rate
46.2%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.69
34
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.07
Goals for per game
2.45
64.0%
Scoring rate
86.7%
45.3%
BTTS rate
50.6%
1.06
Goals for per game
2.46
61.8%
Scoring rate
82.1%
41.2%
BTTS rate
48.7%
75
History Matches
83
1.07
Goals Mean
2.45
1.05
Goals Std
1.80
64.0%
Scored 1+ rate
86.7%
30.7%
Scored 2+ rate
68.7%
9.3%
Scored 3+ rate
42.2%
1.06
Venue Goals Mean
2.46
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.23
Goals against per game
0.99
74.7%
Conceding rate
60.2%
1.06
Goals against per game
1.08
73.5%
Conceding rate
64.1%
75
History Matches
83
1.23
Conceded Mean
0.99
1.10
Conceded Std
1.02
28.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
27.7%
14.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.4%
1.06
Venue Conceded Mean
1.08
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
25.3%
Clean-sheet rate
39.8%
36.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
35.9%
38.2%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
25.3%
Clean-sheet rate
39.8%
36.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
26.5%
Clean-sheet rate
35.9%
38.2%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
25.3%
Clean-sheet rate
39.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
75
History Matches
83
0.98
Result entropy
0.79
1.58
Goal Difference Std
2.32
1.90
Stability score
20.61
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
75
Eligible Matches
81
20
Lead Matches
44
60.0%
Lead Win Rate
93.2%
0.70
Lead Points Retention
0.95
25
Trailing Matches
17
32.0%
Non-loss rate
35.3%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
17.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
75
Halftime Coverage Matches
81
0.44
First Half Goals For Mean
1.05
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.44
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.25
Rest days
75.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
8
0.71
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.25
46
Normal Rest History Matches
60
1.07
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.05
21
Long Rest History Matches
14
2.14
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.43
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
8
Competition Season Count
9
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.74
Portability PPG Std
0.60
2.33
Portability PPG Range
1.70
40.48
Portability Score
45.32
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
75
Clean History Matches
83
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-174.1
PPG-0.78
GF-1.38
GA0.24
PPG-0.59
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate22.7%
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate20.3%
History Matches-8
Goals Mean-1.38
Goals Std-0.75
Scored 1+ rate-0.23
Scored 2+ rate-0.38
Scored 3+ rate-0.33
Venue Goals Mean-1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.03
History Matches-8
Conceded Mean0.24
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Conceded 2+ rate0.3%
Conceded 3+ rate6.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.02
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.31
History Matches-8
Result entropy0.19
Goal Difference Std-0.74
Stability score-18.71
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.01
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches-24
Lead Win Rate-0.33
Lead Points Retention-0.25
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate2.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.82
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.13
Portability PPG Range0.63
Portability Score-4.83
Rest days0.21
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.54
Normal Rest History Matches-14
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.98
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.29
Current Team ELO-174.1
Current Opponent ELO174.1
Current ELO Difference-348.3
Expected score-0.46
History Matches-8
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-8.88
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sunderland

L
Coventry3–1Sunderland31 Oct · away
Pick: Coventry 44% · hit
W
Sunderland3–2Brentford28 Oct · home
Pick: Sunderland 52% · hit
D
Sunderland0–0Leeds25 Oct · home
Pick: Leeds 38% · missed
D
Lech Poznan1–1Sunderland22 Oct · away
Pick: Lech Poznan 58% · missed
L
Bournemouth2–0Sunderland18 Oct · away
Pick: Bournemouth 46% · hit

Dinamo Zagreb

W
Dinamo Zagreb2–1HNK Rijeka27 Oct · home
Pick: Dinamo Zagreb 48% · hit
L
Dinamo Zagreb2–4NEC Nijmegen22 Oct · home
Pick: Dinamo Zagreb 64% · missed
W
NK Slaven Belupo1–5Dinamo Zagreb18 Oct · away
Pick: Dinamo Zagreb 73% · hit
W
Dinamo Zagreb1–0Anderlecht15 Oct · home
Pick: Dinamo Zagreb 43% · hit
W
Vukovar0–4Dinamo Zagreb4 Oct · away
Pick: Dinamo Zagreb 55% · hit

About this match

Sunderland and Dinamo Zagreb meet in UEFA Europa League on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadium of Light, Sunderland. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Sunderland win 25.3%, draw 24.7%, Dinamo Zagreb win 50.0%. The pick is Dinamo Zagreb win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.3%. Both teams to score: 50.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.