ScoreProb
K League 2 South Korea Round 32 2026

Suwon City FC vs Gyeongnam FC

Suwon City FC Home · Elo 1,536
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Gyeongnam FC Away · Elo 1,457
Suwon Sports Complex Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Suwon City FC win
Suwon City FC winPick
54.7%
Draw
22.8%
Gyeongnam FC win
22.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.3%
No43.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.8%
Under 2.541.2%

How much we know

Suwon City FC history65 matches
Gyeongnam FC history63 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 05:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Suwon City FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Suwon City FC are rated 80 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,536 against 1,457. On rating alone Suwon City FC would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Suwon City FC score far more

    1.58 goals a game over 65 matches for Suwon City FC, against 1.00 over 63 for Gyeongnam FC.

  • Defences are close

    Suwon City FC concede 1.45 a game, Gyeongnam FC 1.44.

  • Suwon City FC games more often go over 2.5 goals

    62% of Suwon City FC matches, against 44% for Gyeongnam FC. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Suwon City FC
Gyeongnam FC
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1536.3
ELO
1456.6
65
ELO · Matches
63
1536.3
Current Team ELO
1456.6
1456.6
Current Opponent ELO
1536.3
79.72
Current ELO Difference
-79.72
0.61
Expected score
0.39
65
History Matches
63
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.03
51.90
Overperformance
47.85
0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.80
1.60
Goals for per game
0.80
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
1.30
2.30
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
0.90
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.36
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.54
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.58
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.57
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
63
1.37
PPG
1.08
36.9%
Win rate
27.0%
26.2%
Draw rate
27.0%
36.9%
Loss rate
46.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
73.0%
61.5%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
38.5%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
30
1.58
PPG
0.93
41.9%
Win rate
20.0%
32.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
25.8%
Loss rate
46.7%
83.9%
Over 1.5 rate
76.7%
61.3%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
32.3%
Over 3.5 rate
13.3%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.44
31
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.58
Goals for per game
1.00
80.0%
Scoring rate
63.5%
70.8%
BTTS rate
49.2%
1.71
Goals for per game
0.77
87.1%
Scoring rate
60.0%
74.2%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.05
Goals for per game
1.32
90.5%
Scoring rate
77.3%
76.2%
BTTS rate
68.2%
65
History Matches
63
1.58
Goals Mean
1.00
1.24
Goals Std
1.02
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
63.5%
47.7%
Scored 2+ rate
25.4%
20.0%
Scored 3+ rate
7.9%
1.71
Venue Goals Mean
0.77
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.45
Goals against per game
1.44
84.6%
Conceding rate
82.5%
1.26
Goals against per game
1.50
80.6%
Conceding rate
90.0%
1.24
Goals against per game
1.36
81.0%
Conceding rate
90.9%
65
History Matches
63
1.45
Conceded Mean
1.44
0.98
Conceded Std
1.05
41.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.3%
16.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.9%
1.26
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
15.4%
Clean-sheet rate
17.5%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.5%
19.4%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
12.9%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
19.0%
Clean-sheet rate
9.1%
9.5%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
15.4%
Clean-sheet rate
17.5%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.5%
19.4%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
12.9%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
15.4%
Clean-sheet rate
17.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
63
0.99
Result entropy
0.97
1.50
Goal Difference Std
1.62
1.10
Stability score
3.14
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
63
22
Lead Matches
10
54.5%
Lead Win Rate
70.0%
0.62
Lead Points Retention
0.77
16
Trailing Matches
20
31.3%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
15.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
63
0.69
First Half Goals For Mean
0.40
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
0.89
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.88
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.77
Rest days
75.77
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
38
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.45
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
23
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.30
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.30
Competition & season17 signals
170
21
Matches
22
1.90
PPG
1.23
52.4%
Win rate
27.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
40.9%
14.3%
Loss rate
31.8%
90.5%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
76.2%
Over 2.5 rate
40.9%
52.4%
Over 3.5 rate
27.3%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
21
Current Competition Matches
22
1.90
Current Competition PPG
1.23
0.81
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.05
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.43
Portability PPG Std
0.10
0.85
Portability PPG Range
0.20
53.92
Portability Score
83.22
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
63
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO79.72
PPG0.29
GF0.58
GA0.00
PPG0.68
PPG0.65
PPG1.20
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate9.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.27
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.58
Goals Std0.22
Scored 1+ rate16.5%
Scored 2+ rate22.3%
Scored 3+ rate12.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.94
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.26
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.00
Conceded Std-0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate0.3%
Conceded 3+ rate1.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.24
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.33
History Matches2
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.12
Stability score-2.04
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.01
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches12
Lead Win Rate-0.15
Lead Points Retention-0.15
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate6.3%
Trailing Win Rate-0.03
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.68
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.85
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.33
Portability PPG Range0.65
Portability Score-29.30
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.50
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.45
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.00
Current Team ELO79.72
Current Opponent ELO-79.72
Current ELO Difference159.4
Expected score0.23
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance4.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Suwon City FC

W
Suwon City FC1–0Ansan Greeners1 Nov · home
Pick: Suwon City FC 68% · hit
L
Suwon City FC0–1Asan Mugunghwa25 Oct · home
Pick: Suwon City FC 51% · missed
W
Seongnam FC1–2Suwon City FC17 Oct · away
Pick: Seongnam FC 38% · missed
W
Suwon City FC2–1Busan I Park30 Aug · home
Pick: Suwon City FC 51% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Gyeongnam FC

W
Gyeongnam FC1–0Hwaseong31 Oct · home
Pick: Hwaseong 40% · missed
L
Busan I Park3–1Gyeongnam FC25 Oct · away
Pick: Busan I Park 51% · hit
D
Gyeongnam FC0–0Asan Mugunghwa17 Oct · home
Pick: Gyeongnam FC 39% · missed
W
Gyeongnam FC1–0Paju Citizen29 Aug · home
Pick: Gyeongnam FC 49% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Suwon City FC and Gyeongnam FC meet in K League 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 05:00 UTC. The match is played at Suwon Sports Complex. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Suwon City FC win 54.7%, draw 22.8%, Gyeongnam FC win 22.5%. The pick is Suwon City FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.8%. Both teams to score: 56.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.