ScoreProb
Third League - Northeast Bulgaria Northeast - 13 2026

Svetkavitsa 14 vs Riltzi

Svetkavitsa 14 Home · Elo 1,444
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Riltzi Away · Elo 1,390
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Svetkavitsa 14 win
Svetkavitsa 14 winPick
66.4%
Draw
16.0%
Riltzi win
17.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes39.9%
No60.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.5%
Under 2.541.5%

How much we know

Svetkavitsa 14 history31 matches
Riltzi history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (66.4%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Svetkavitsa 14 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Svetkavitsa 14 are rated 54 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,444 against 1,390. On rating alone Svetkavitsa 14 would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Riltzi score more

    0.77 goals a game over 31 matches for Svetkavitsa 14, against 1.04 over 45 for Riltzi.

  • Svetkavitsa 14 concede fewer

    Svetkavitsa 14 concede 1.35 a game, Riltzi 2.31.

  • Riltzi games more often go over 2.5 goals

    32% of Svetkavitsa 14 matches, against 60% for Riltzi. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Svetkavitsa 14
Riltzi
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1444.3
ELO
1390.1
31
ELO · Matches
45
1444.3
Current Team ELO
1390.1
1390.1
Current Opponent ELO
1444.3
54.18
Current ELO Difference
-54.18
0.58
Expected score
0.42
31
History Matches
45
-0.10
Residual Mean
-0.11
44.14
Overperformance
42.21
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.20
1.40
Goals for per game
0.60
0.60
Goals against per game
3.20
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
0.80
1.00
Goals for per game
0.90
1.30
Goals against per game
3.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.18
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.30
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.20
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.86
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.95
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.32
Overall performance9 signals
90
31
Matches
45
0.94
PPG
0.80
22.6%
Win rate
20.0%
25.8%
Draw rate
20.0%
51.6%
Loss rate
60.0%
64.5%
Over 1.5 rate
75.6%
32.3%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
16.1%
Over 3.5 rate
42.2%
1.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.58
Venue performance10 signals
100
14
Matches
21
1.29
PPG
0.24
35.7%
Win rate
4.8%
21.4%
Draw rate
9.5%
42.9%
Loss rate
85.7%
64.3%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
35.7%
Over 2.5 rate
61.9%
7.1%
Over 3.5 rate
38.1%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.58
14
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.77
Goals for per game
1.04
48.4%
Scoring rate
46.7%
29.0%
BTTS rate
37.8%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.43
57.1%
Scoring rate
28.6%
28.6%
BTTS rate
23.8%
4.00
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
31
History Matches
45
0.77
Goals Mean
1.04
1.01
Goals Std
1.38
48.4%
Scored 1+ rate
46.7%
19.4%
Scored 2+ rate
31.1%
6.5%
Scored 3+ rate
15.6%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.43
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.35
Goals against per game
2.31
67.7%
Conceding rate
82.2%
1.07
Goals against per game
2.67
64.3%
Conceding rate
85.7%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
31
History Matches
45
1.35
Conceded Mean
2.31
1.38
Conceded Std
2.05
35.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
57.8%
19.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
42.2%
1.07
Venue Conceded Mean
2.67
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.3%
Clean-sheet rate
17.8%
51.6%
Failed-to-score rate
53.3%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
71.4%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
32.3%
Clean-sheet rate
17.8%
51.6%
Failed-to-score rate
53.3%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
71.4%
32.3%
Clean-sheet rate
17.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
31
History Matches
45
0.93
Result entropy
0.86
1.90
Goal Difference Std
2.58
6.52
Stability score
13.50
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
7
Eligible Matches
11
1
Lead Matches
0
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
—
1.00
Lead Points Retention
—
2
Trailing Matches
4
50.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
7
Halftime Coverage Matches
11
0.14
First Half Goals For Mean
0.00
0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.18
0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.27
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.88
Rest days
76.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
4
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
15
Normal Rest History Matches
24
0.67
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.92
13
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.38
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.56
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
0.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
4.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
2
Competition Season Count
3
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.18
—
Portability PPG Range
0.36
—
Portability Score
73.28
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
31
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO54.18
PPG0.14
GF-0.27
GA-0.96
PPG3.00
PPG1.05
PPG1.40
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-14
Clean-sheet rate14.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate21.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.29
History Matches-14
Goals Mean-0.27
Goals Std-0.37
Scored 1+ rate1.7%
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean0.57
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.12
History Matches-14
Conceded Mean-0.96
Conceded Std-0.67
Clean-sheet rate14.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.22
Conceded 3+ rate-0.23
Venue Conceded Mean-1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.76
History Matches-14
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.68
Stability score-6.98
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.37
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches1
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate50.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean0.82
Second Half Goals Against Mean-1.13
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean5.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.82
Current Team ELO54.18
Current Opponent ELO-54.18
Current ELO Difference108.4
Expected score0.15
History Matches-14
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.93
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Svetkavitsa 14

L
Botev Novi Pazar2–1Svetkavitsa 1424 Oct · away
Pick: Botev Novi Pazar 41% · hit
W
Svetkavitsa 143–0Olympic Varna17 Oct · home
Pick: Svetkavitsa 14 60% · hit
W
Ustrem Donchevo2–3Svetkavitsa 1429 Aug · away
Pick: Ustrem Donchevo 40% · missed
W
Svetkavitsa 144–0Fratria II26 Aug · home
Pick: Svetkavitsa 14 62% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Riltzi

W
Riltzi2–0Botev Novi Pazar31 Oct · home
Pick: Botev Novi Pazar 55% · missed
L
Olympic Varna2–0Riltzi24 Oct · away
Pick: Olympic Varna 55% · hit
L
Riltzi0–3Chernomorets Balchik21 Oct · home
Pick: Chernomorets Balchik 68% · hit
W
Riltzi1–0Dorostol26 Aug · home
Pick: Riltzi 62% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Svetkavitsa 14 and Riltzi meet in Third League - Northeast on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Svetkavitsa 14 win 66.4%, draw 16.0%, Riltzi win 17.5%. The pick is Svetkavitsa 14 win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.5%. Both teams to score: 39.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.