Tapachula vs Zacatepec 1948
Match result probability Model pick: Zacatepec 1948 win
Tapachula win
30.0%
Draw
23.9%
Zacatepec 1948 winPick
46.1%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes55.0%
No45.0%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.554.1%
Under 2.545.9%
How much we know
Tapachula history30 matches
Zacatepec 1948 history35 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Zacatepec 1948
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
- Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 17:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre6 Nov · 18:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Zacatepec 1948 are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Zacatepec 1948 are rated 36 Elo points higher
Elo 1,555 against 1,519. On rating alone Zacatepec 1948 would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.
-
Tapachula score far more
2.00 goals a game over 30 matches for Tapachula, against 1.26 over 35 for Zacatepec 1948.
-
Zacatepec 1948 concede fewer
Tapachula concede 1.63 a game, Zacatepec 1948 0.80.
-
Tapachula games more often go over 2.5 goals
77% of Tapachula matches, against 34% for Zacatepec 1948. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 26 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Zacatepec 1948@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1518.9
ELO
1554.6
30
ELO · Matches
35
1518.9
Current Team ELO
1554.6
1554.6
Current Opponent ELO
1518.9
-35.69
Current ELO Difference
35.69
0.45
Expected score
0.55
30
History Matches
35
0.03
Residual Mean
0.07
51.93
Overperformance
54.44
0.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
1.20
2.60
Goals for per game
1.40
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.50
2.70
Goals for per game
1.60
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.42
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.11
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.56
Overall performance9 signals 90
30
Matches
35
1.43
PPG
1.57
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
23.3%
Draw rate
37.1%
36.7%
Loss rate
22.9%
90.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
76.7%
Over 2.5 rate
34.3%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
Venue performance10 signals 100
15
Matches
19
1.80
PPG
1.58
53.3%
Win rate
42.1%
20.0%
Draw rate
31.6%
26.7%
Loss rate
26.3%
86.7%
Over 1.5 rate
57.9%
73.3%
Over 2.5 rate
42.1%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
26.3%
2.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
15
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.00
Goals for per game
1.26
83.3%
Scoring rate
71.4%
76.7%
BTTS rate
40.0%
2.33
Goals for per game
1.32
86.7%
Scoring rate
68.4%
73.3%
BTTS rate
42.1%
30
History Matches
35
2.00
Goals Mean
1.26
1.46
Goals Std
1.20
83.3%
Scored 1+ rate
71.4%
56.7%
Scored 2+ rate
31.4%
40.0%
Scored 3+ rate
14.3%
2.33
Venue Goals Mean
1.32
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.63
Goals against per game
0.80
86.7%
Conceding rate
54.3%
1.20
Goals against per game
0.95
80.0%
Conceding rate
63.2%
30
History Matches
35
1.63
Conceded Mean
0.80
1.08
Conceded Std
0.92
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
20.0%
20.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
2.9%
1.20
Venue Conceded Mean
0.95
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
13.3%
Clean-sheet rate
45.7%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
13.3%
Clean-sheet rate
45.7%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.8%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
13.3%
Clean-sheet rate
45.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
30
History Matches
35
0.98
Result entropy
0.98
1.97
Goal Difference Std
1.59
2.24
Stability score
2.45
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
29
Eligible Matches
35
7
Lead Matches
11
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
72.7%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.82
9
Trailing Matches
5
44.4%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
29
Halftime Coverage Matches
35
0.90
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.93
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.37
1.03
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
201.7
Rest days
194.7
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
12
Normal Rest History Matches
17
1.67
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.53
17
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.35
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.53
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.01
Portability PPG Std
0.18
0.03
Portability PPG Range
0.36
97.30
Portability Score
73.40
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
30
Clean History Matches
35
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-35.69
PPG-0.14
GF0.74
GA0.83
PPG0.22
PPG1.40
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.32
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches-5
Goals Mean0.74
Goals Std0.26
Scored 1+ rate11.9%
Scored 2+ rate25.2%
Scored 3+ rate25.7%
Venue Goals Mean1.02
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.01
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean0.83
Conceded Std0.16
Clean-sheet rate-0.32
Conceded 2+ rate30.0%
Conceded 3+ rate17.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.10
History Matches-5
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.38
Stability score-0.20
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.55
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate13.0%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate24.4%
Trailing Win Rate11.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean0.56
Second Half Goals For Mean0.38
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.30
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.17
Portability PPG Range-0.33
Portability Score23.89
Rest days7.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.14
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.18
Current Team ELO-35.69
Current Opponent ELO35.69
Current ELO Difference-71.38
Expected score-0.10
History Matches-5
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.52
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Tapachula
L
Tigres de Alica4–1Tapachula31 Oct · away
Pick: Tigres de Alica 52% · hit W
Tapachula2–0H2O Purepechas24 Oct · home
Pick: Tapachula 66% · hit L
Tapachula1–4Deportiva Venados20 Oct · home
Pick: Deportiva Venados 48% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Zacatepec 1948
L
Zacatepec 19481–5Racing de Veracruz31 Oct · home
Pick: Racing de Veracruz 37% · hit L
Irapuato2–0Zacatepec 194818 Oct · away
Pick: Irapuato 48% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Tapachula and Zacatepec 1948 meet in Primera Premier on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Tapachula win 30.0%, draw 23.9%, Zacatepec 1948 win 46.1%. The pick is Zacatepec 1948 win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.1%. Both teams to score: 55.0%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.