ScoreProb
Czech Liga Czechia Round 14 2026

Plzen vs Sparta Praha

Plzen Home · Elo 1,631
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sparta Praha Away · Elo 1,649
Doosan Arena, Plzen Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Plzen win
Plzen winPick
40.3%
Draw
28.9%
Sparta Praha win
30.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.5%
No42.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.9%
Under 2.544.1%

How much we know

Plzen history89 matches
Sparta Praha history86 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Plzen are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,631 against 1,649. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.83 goals a game over 89 matches for Plzen, against 1.84 over 86 for Sparta Praha.

  • Defences are close

    Plzen concede 1.24 a game, Sparta Praha 1.16.

  • Sparta Praha games more often go over 2.5 goals

    54% of Plzen matches, against 63% for Sparta Praha. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Plzen
Sparta Praha
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1630.7
ELO
1648.8
89
ELO · Matches
86
1630.7
Current Team ELO
1648.8
1648.8
Current Opponent ELO
1630.7
-18.12
Current ELO Difference
18.12
0.47
Expected score
0.53
89
History Matches
86
0.07
Residual Mean
0.08
56.10
Overperformance
56.54
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.80
2.40
Goals for per game
2.00
2.20
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.50
2.10
Goals for per game
1.80
2.30
Goals against per game
1.70
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.51
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.54
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.62
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.49
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.60
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.70
Overall performance9 signals
90
89
Matches
86
1.74
PPG
1.86
49.4%
Win rate
57.0%
25.8%
Draw rate
15.1%
24.7%
Loss rate
27.9%
80.9%
Over 1.5 rate
82.6%
53.9%
Over 2.5 rate
62.8%
31.5%
Over 3.5 rate
33.7%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
Venue performance10 signals
100
46
Matches
45
1.78
PPG
1.40
50.0%
Win rate
42.2%
28.3%
Draw rate
13.3%
21.7%
Loss rate
44.4%
82.6%
Over 1.5 rate
75.6%
47.8%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
32.6%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
46
History Matches
45
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.83
Goals for per game
1.84
78.7%
Scoring rate
81.4%
55.1%
BTTS rate
52.3%
1.83
Goals for per game
1.36
84.8%
Scoring rate
71.1%
58.7%
BTTS rate
46.7%
2.50
Goals for per game
2.40
100.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
89
History Matches
86
1.83
Goals Mean
1.84
1.49
Goals Std
1.31
78.7%
Scored 1+ rate
81.4%
53.9%
Scored 2+ rate
59.3%
29.2%
Scored 3+ rate
29.1%
1.83
Venue Goals Mean
1.36
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.24
Goals against per game
1.16
68.5%
Conceding rate
65.1%
1.13
Goals against per game
1.27
67.4%
Conceding rate
68.9%
2.75
Goals against per game
1.40
100.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
89
History Matches
86
1.24
Conceded Mean
1.16
1.23
Conceded Std
1.16
31.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.6%
15.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.8%
1.13
Venue Conceded Mean
1.27
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
31.5%
Clean-sheet rate
34.9%
21.3%
Failed-to-score rate
18.6%
32.6%
Clean-sheet rate
31.1%
15.2%
Failed-to-score rate
28.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
31.5%
Clean-sheet rate
34.9%
21.3%
Failed-to-score rate
18.6%
32.6%
Clean-sheet rate
31.1%
15.2%
Failed-to-score rate
28.9%
31.5%
Clean-sheet rate
34.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
89
History Matches
86
0.95
Result entropy
0.88
1.80
Goal Difference Std
1.89
5.02
Stability score
12.41
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
89
Eligible Matches
86
46
Lead Matches
32
80.4%
Lead Win Rate
96.9%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.97
22
Trailing Matches
22
18.2%
Non-loss rate
22.7%
13.6%
Trailing Win Rate
13.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
89
Halftime Coverage Matches
86
0.97
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
0.87
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.08
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.96
Rest days
78.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
18
Short Rest History Matches
14
1.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.93
51
Normal Rest History Matches
54
1.69
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.80
19
Long Rest History Matches
17
2.05
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.12
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
5
1.25
PPG
1.80
25.0%
Win rate
60.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
80.0%
1.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.53
4
Current Competition Matches
5
1.25
Current Competition PPG
1.80
-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
10
Competition Season Count
9
9
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.38
Portability PPG Std
0.28
1.20
Portability PPG Range
0.90
56.68
Portability Score
63.75
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
89
Clean History Matches
86
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-18.12
PPG-0.12
GF-0.01
GA0.07
PPG-0.55
PPG0.38
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate2.7%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate1.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches3
Goals Mean-0.01
Goals Std0.18
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate0.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.47
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.02
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.07
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate2.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.13
History Matches3
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.09
Stability score-7.39
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.10
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches14
Lead Win Rate-0.16
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.55
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.25
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.10
Portability PPG Range0.30
Portability Score-7.07
Rest days6.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.26
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.11
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.07
Current Team ELO-18.12
Current Opponent ELO18.12
Current ELO Difference-36.25
Expected score-0.05
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.44
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Plzen

W
Baník Ostrava0–4Plzen1 Nov · away
Pick: Plzen 48% · hit
W
Vysočina Jihlava1–6Plzen28 Oct · away
Pick: Plzen 48% · hit
L
Plzen1–2Pardubice25 Oct · home
Pick: Plzen 53% · missed
L
Plzen1–2Levski Sofia22 Oct · home
Pick: Levski Sofia 35% · hit
W
FK Jablonec2–3Plzen18 Oct · away
Pick: FK Jablonec 48% · missed

Sparta Praha

D
Bohemians 19050–0Sparta Praha1 Nov · away
Pick: Sparta Praha 46% · missed
L
Sparta Praha0–2Baník Ostrava28 Oct · home
Pick: Sparta Praha 50% · missed
W
Sparta Praha5–1Slovácko25 Oct · home
Pick: Sparta Praha 70% · hit
L
Olympiakos Piraeus1–0Sparta Praha22 Oct · away
Pick: Olympiakos Piraeus 43% · hit
D
Baník Ostrava0–0Sparta Praha18 Oct · away
Pick: Sparta Praha 46% · missed

About this match

Plzen and Sparta Praha meet in Czech Liga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. The match is played at Doosan Arena, Plzen. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Plzen win 40.3%, draw 28.9%, Sparta Praha win 30.8%. The pick is Plzen win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.9%. Both teams to score: 57.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.