ScoreProb
Liga Profesional Argentina Argentina Round 16 2026

Tigre vs Sarmiento Junin

Tigre Home · Elo 1,541
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sarmiento Junin Away · Elo 1,494
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tigre win
Tigre winPick
50.3%
Draw
28.2%
Sarmiento Junin win
21.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes42.2%
No57.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.536.4%
Under 2.563.6%

How much we know

Tigre history58 matches
Sarmiento Junin history46 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Tigre are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Tigre are rated 47 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,541 against 1,494. On rating alone Tigre would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Tigre score more

    1.00 goals a game over 58 matches for Tigre, against 0.89 over 46 for Sarmiento Junin.

  • Tigre concede fewer

    Tigre concede 0.83 a game, Sarmiento Junin 1.22.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    29% of Tigre matches, against 35% for Sarmiento Junin. The model puts this match at 36% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Tigre
Sarmiento Junin
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1541.1
ELO
1494.3
58
ELO · Matches
46
1541.1
Current Team ELO
1494.3
1494.3
Current Opponent ELO
1541.1
46.85
Current ELO Difference
-46.85
0.57
Expected score
0.43
58
History Matches
46
0.03
Residual Mean
0.01
52.41
Overperformance
50.45
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.40
0.60
Goals for per game
2.00
0.40
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.50
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
0.70
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.18
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.80
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.83
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
46
1.43
PPG
1.22
36.2%
Win rate
32.6%
34.5%
Draw rate
23.9%
29.3%
Loss rate
43.5%
56.9%
Over 1.5 rate
60.9%
29.3%
Over 2.5 rate
34.8%
10.3%
Over 3.5 rate
17.4%
1.13
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
20
1.57
PPG
1.00
42.9%
Win rate
25.0%
28.6%
Draw rate
25.0%
28.6%
Loss rate
50.0%
64.3%
Over 1.5 rate
55.0%
28.6%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
28
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.00
Goals for per game
0.89
67.2%
Scoring rate
58.7%
43.1%
BTTS rate
37.0%
1.11
Goals for per game
0.70
75.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
42.9%
BTTS rate
35.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.28
63.2%
Scoring rate
77.8%
47.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
58
History Matches
46
1.00
Goals Mean
0.89
0.87
Goals Std
0.84
67.2%
Scored 1+ rate
58.7%
27.6%
Scored 2+ rate
30.4%
5.2%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.11
Venue Goals Mean
0.70
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.83
Goals against per game
1.22
62.1%
Conceding rate
69.6%
0.89
Goals against per game
1.45
60.7%
Conceding rate
75.0%
0.79
Goals against per game
1.28
63.2%
Conceding rate
66.7%
58
History Matches
46
0.83
Conceded Mean
1.22
0.77
Conceded Std
1.16
19.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.6%
1.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.0%
0.89
Venue Conceded Mean
1.45
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
37.9%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
32.8%
Failed-to-score rate
41.3%
39.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
36.8%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
37.9%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
32.8%
Failed-to-score rate
41.3%
39.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
37.9%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
46
1.00
Result entropy
0.97
1.13
Goal Difference Std
1.50
0.36
Stability score
2.63
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
46
14
Lead Matches
14
78.6%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.79
13
Trailing Matches
12
30.8%
Non-loss rate
8.3%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
0.45
First Half Goals For Mean
0.43
0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.55
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.46
0.45
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.96
Rest days
77.14
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
26
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.12
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.36
28
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.75
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.10
Competition & season17 signals
170
19
Matches
18
1.42
PPG
1.56
31.6%
Win rate
50.0%
47.4%
Draw rate
5.6%
21.1%
Loss rate
44.4%
57.9%
Over 1.5 rate
72.2%
26.3%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
15.8%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
1.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
19
Current Competition Matches
18
1.42
Current Competition PPG
1.56
0.21
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
5
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.08
Portability PPG Std
0.28
0.19
Portability PPG Range
0.56
86.86
Portability Score
64.29
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
46
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO46.85
PPG0.21
GF0.11
GA-0.39
PPG-0.13
PPG0.57
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate7.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate14.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches12
Goals Mean0.11
Goals Std0.03
Scored 1+ rate8.5%
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate5.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.41
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.38
History Matches12
Conceded Mean-0.39
Conceded Std-0.39
Clean-sheet rate7.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.14
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean-0.56
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.72
History Matches12
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.37
Stability score-2.28
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.49
Eligible Matches12
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate7.1%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate22.4%
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches12
First Half Goals For Mean0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.29
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-0.13
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.21
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.20
Portability PPG Range-0.37
Portability Score22.57
Rest days-1.18
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.24
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match0.65
Current Team ELO46.85
Current Opponent ELO-46.85
Current ELO Difference93.70
Expected score0.13
History Matches12
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance1.96
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Tigre

W
Huracan0–2Tigre30 Oct · away
Pick: Huracan 39% · missed
L
Tigre0–1Atletico Tucuman24 Oct · home
Pick: Tigre 49% · missed
L
Argentinos JRS2–1Tigre4 Oct · away
Pick: Argentinos JRS 51% · hit
D
Tigre0–0Barracas Central1 Sep · home
Pick: Tigre 45% · missed
W
Tigre2–1Central Cordoba de Santiago24 Aug · home
Pick: Tigre 52% · hit

Sarmiento Junin

L
Sarmiento Junin1–2Rosario Central31 Oct · home
Pick: Sarmiento Junin 34% · missed
D
Sarmiento Junin1–1Barracas Central19 Oct · home
Pick: Sarmiento Junin 38% · missed
D
Sarmiento Junin1–1River Plate14 Oct · home
Pick: River Plate 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Tigre and Sarmiento Junin meet in Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Tigre win 50.3%, draw 28.2%, Sarmiento Junin win 21.5%. The pick is Tigre win. Over 2.5 goals: 36.4%. Both teams to score: 42.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.