ScoreProb
J2 League Japan Round 16 2026

Tochigi City vs Omiya Ardija

Tochigi City Home · Elo 1,541
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Omiya Ardija Away · Elo 1,536
City Football Station, Tochigi Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Omiya Ardija win
Tochigi City win
32.7%
Draw
23.1%
Omiya Ardija winPick
44.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.3%
No41.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.0%
Under 2.542.0%

How much we know

Tochigi City history64 matches
Omiya Ardija history69 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 20 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 05:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Omiya Ardija are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,541 against 1,536. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.67 goals a game over 64 matches for Tochigi City, against 1.77 over 69 for Omiya Ardija.

  • Defences are close

    Tochigi City concede 1.23 a game, Omiya Ardija 1.28.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    59% of Tochigi City matches, against 64% for Omiya Ardija. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Tochigi City
Omiya Ardija
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1541.1
ELO
1536.4
64
ELO · Matches
69
1541.1
Current Team ELO
1536.4
1536.4
Current Opponent ELO
1541.1
4.77
Current ELO Difference
-4.77
0.51
Expected score
0.49
64
History Matches
69
0.03
Residual Mean
0.03
52.24
Overperformance
52.23
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.60
2.20
Goals for per game
2.40
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.90
1.80
Goals for per game
2.20
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
69
1.70
PPG
1.61
50.0%
Win rate
46.4%
20.3%
Draw rate
21.7%
29.7%
Loss rate
31.9%
70.3%
Over 1.5 rate
78.3%
59.4%
Over 2.5 rate
63.8%
35.9%
Over 3.5 rate
31.9%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
33
1.91
PPG
1.58
56.3%
Win rate
45.5%
21.9%
Draw rate
21.2%
21.9%
Loss rate
33.3%
71.9%
Over 1.5 rate
78.8%
65.6%
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
36.4%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
32
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.67
Goals for per game
1.77
75.0%
Scoring rate
85.5%
51.6%
BTTS rate
60.9%
1.78
Goals for per game
1.82
84.4%
Scoring rate
81.8%
56.3%
BTTS rate
63.6%
1.43
Goals for per game
2.13
69.6%
Scoring rate
100.0%
56.5%
BTTS rate
82.6%
64
History Matches
69
1.67
Goals Mean
1.77
1.43
Goals Std
1.25
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
85.5%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
55.1%
26.6%
Scored 3+ rate
23.2%
1.78
Venue Goals Mean
1.82
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.23
Goals against per game
1.28
70.3%
Conceding rate
71.0%
1.13
Goals against per game
1.39
65.6%
Conceding rate
75.8%
1.70
Goals against per game
1.48
78.3%
Conceding rate
82.6%
64
History Matches
69
1.23
Conceded Mean
1.28
1.22
Conceded Std
1.09
31.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.6%
10.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.6%
1.13
Venue Conceded Mean
1.39
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
14.5%
34.4%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
15.6%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
17.4%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
14.5%
34.4%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
15.6%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
69
0.94
Result entropy
0.96
1.94
Goal Difference Std
1.60
6.17
Stability score
4.19
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
63
Eligible Matches
67
17
Lead Matches
23
94.1%
Lead Win Rate
73.9%
0.96
Lead Points Retention
0.77
16
Trailing Matches
13
25.0%
Non-loss rate
15.4%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
0.70
First Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.04
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.79
Rest days
77.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
40
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.83
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.60
19
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.32
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.61
Competition & season17 signals
170
23
Matches
23
1.26
PPG
1.78
34.8%
Win rate
56.5%
21.7%
Draw rate
8.7%
43.5%
Loss rate
34.8%
73.9%
Over 1.5 rate
95.7%
65.2%
Over 2.5 rate
82.6%
47.8%
Over 3.5 rate
34.8%
2.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.88
23
Current Competition Matches
23
1.26
Current Competition PPG
1.78
-0.26
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.65
5
Competition Season Count
6
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.38
Portability PPG Std
0.08
0.77
Portability PPG Range
0.17
56.64
Portability Score
85.67
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
69
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO4.77
PPG0.09
GF-0.10
GA-0.04
PPG-0.52
PPG0.33
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate0.7%
Failed-to-score rate10.5%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate10.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-5
Goals Mean-0.10
Goals Std0.17
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate3.4%
Venue Goals Mean-0.04
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.68
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean-0.04
Conceded Std0.13
Clean-sheet rate0.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.27
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.34
History Matches-5
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.33
Stability score1.97
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.76
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate20.2%
Lead Points Retention0.19
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate9.6%
Trailing Win Rate4.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.52
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.91
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.30
Portability PPG Range0.60
Portability Score-29.03
Rest days-0.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.23
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.29
Current Team ELO4.77
Current Opponent ELO-4.77
Current ELO Difference9.54
Expected score0.01
History Matches-5
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Tochigi City

L
Tegevajaro Miyazaki3–0Tochigi City3 Nov · away
Pick: Tegevajaro Miyazaki 55% · hit
L
Tochigi City1–3Iwaki31 Oct · home
Pick: Tochigi City 41% · missed
L
Shonan Bellmare2–1Tochigi City25 Oct · away
Pick: Shonan Bellmare 51% · hit
D
Tochigi City2–2Fujieda MYFC21 Oct · home
Pick: Tochigi City 39% · missed
D
Tochigi City1–1Yokohama FC17 Oct · home
Pick: Yokohama FC 40% · missed

Omiya Ardija

W
Omiya Ardija2–1Iwaki3 Nov · home
Pick: Omiya Ardija 50% · hit
W
Vegalta Sendai1–2Omiya Ardija31 Oct · away
Pick: Vegalta Sendai 40% · missed
D
Omiya Ardija2–2Yokohama FC24 Oct · home
Pick: Omiya Ardija 44% · missed
L
Omiya Ardija0–3Kataller Toyama21 Oct · home
Pick: Omiya Ardija 42% · missed
L
Sagan Tosu2–1Omiya Ardija17 Oct · away
Pick: Sagan Tosu 38% · hit

About this match

Tochigi City and Omiya Ardija meet in J2 League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 05:00 UTC. The match is played at City Football Station, Tochigi. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Tochigi City win 32.7%, draw 23.1%, Omiya Ardija win 44.2%. The pick is Omiya Ardija win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.0%. Both teams to score: 58.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.