ScoreProb
J2 League Japan Round 16 2026

Vanraure Hachinohe vs Consadole Sapporo

Vanraure Hachinohe Home · Elo 1,489
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Consadole Sapporo Away · Elo 1,513
Prifoods Stadium, Hachinohe Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Vanraure Hachinohe win
Vanraure Hachinohe winPick
42.9%
Draw
22.7%
Consadole Sapporo win
34.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.3%
No51.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.2%
Under 2.554.8%

How much we know

Vanraure Hachinohe history65 matches
Consadole Sapporo history68 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 19 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 04:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Vanraure Hachinohe are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,489 against 1,513. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Consadole Sapporo score more

    1.09 goals a game over 65 matches for Vanraure Hachinohe, against 1.35 over 68 for Consadole Sapporo.

  • Vanraure Hachinohe concede fewer

    Vanraure Hachinohe concede 0.85 a game, Consadole Sapporo 1.51.

  • Consadole Sapporo games more often go over 2.5 goals

    23% of Vanraure Hachinohe matches, against 57% for Consadole Sapporo. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Vanraure Hachinohe
Consadole Sapporo
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1488.9
ELO
1513.3
65
ELO · Matches
68
1488.9
Current Team ELO
1513.3
1513.3
Current Opponent ELO
1488.9
-24.47
Current ELO Difference
24.47
0.46
Expected score
0.54
65
History Matches
68
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.00
49.29
Overperformance
50.36
-0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.40
0.60
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.50
0.50
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
10.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.67
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.33
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.60
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
68
1.54
PPG
1.41
41.5%
Win rate
41.2%
29.2%
Draw rate
17.6%
29.2%
Loss rate
41.2%
50.8%
Over 1.5 rate
77.9%
23.1%
Over 2.5 rate
57.4%
13.8%
Over 3.5 rate
26.5%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
36
1.64
PPG
1.17
45.5%
Win rate
30.6%
27.3%
Draw rate
25.0%
27.3%
Loss rate
44.4%
60.6%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
21.2%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
12.1%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
33
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.09
Goals for per game
1.35
67.7%
Scoring rate
79.4%
33.8%
BTTS rate
57.4%
1.18
Goals for per game
1.28
72.7%
Scoring rate
77.8%
39.4%
BTTS rate
61.1%
0.78
Goals for per game
1.35
47.8%
Scoring rate
78.3%
30.4%
BTTS rate
52.2%
65
History Matches
68
1.09
Goals Mean
1.35
1.12
Goals Std
1.00
67.7%
Scored 1+ rate
79.4%
23.1%
Scored 2+ rate
39.7%
12.3%
Scored 3+ rate
14.7%
1.18
Venue Goals Mean
1.28
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.85
Goals against per game
1.51
56.9%
Conceding rate
76.5%
0.82
Goals against per game
1.56
60.6%
Conceding rate
80.6%
1.22
Goals against per game
1.26
73.9%
Conceding rate
69.6%
65
History Matches
68
0.85
Conceded Mean
1.51
1.00
Conceded Std
1.32
18.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.2%
4.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.6%
0.82
Venue Conceded Mean
1.56
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
43.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
32.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.6%
39.4%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
52.2%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
43.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
32.3%
Failed-to-score rate
20.6%
39.4%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
43.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
68
0.99
Result entropy
0.94
1.49
Goal Difference Std
1.73
1.33
Stability score
5.62
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
66
20
Lead Matches
20
85.0%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.85
16
Trailing Matches
23
25.0%
Non-loss rate
21.7%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
8.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
0.53
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.38
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.83
Rest days
77.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
5
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.80
38
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.26
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.36
24
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.96
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.48
Competition & season17 signals
170
23
Matches
23
0.96
PPG
1.48
21.7%
Win rate
43.5%
30.4%
Draw rate
17.4%
47.8%
Loss rate
39.1%
52.2%
Over 1.5 rate
78.3%
21.7%
Over 2.5 rate
52.2%
17.4%
Over 3.5 rate
13.0%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
23
Current Competition Matches
23
0.96
Current Competition PPG
1.48
-0.43
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.09
5
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.47
Portability PPG Std
0.04
0.94
Portability PPG Range
0.08
51.59
Portability Score
92.90
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
68
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-24.47
PPG0.13
GF-0.26
GA-0.67
PPG-0.52
PPG0.47
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate19.5%
Failed-to-score rate11.7%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate19.9%
Failed-to-score rate5.1%
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.26
Goals Std0.12
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate-0.17
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.53
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean-0.67
Conceded Std-0.33
Clean-sheet rate19.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.23
Conceded 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Conceded Mean-0.74
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.07
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.24
Stability score-4.29
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.13
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate5.0%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate3.3%
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.27
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.46
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.52
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.52
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.43
Portability PPG Range0.85
Portability Score-41.31
Rest days-0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.20
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.10
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.48
Current Team ELO-24.47
Current Opponent ELO24.47
Current ELO Difference-48.94
Expected score-0.07
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-1.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Vanraure Hachinohe

L
Oita Trinita1–0Vanraure Hachinohe3 Nov · away
Pick: Oita Trinita 45% · hit
L
Vanraure Hachinohe1–2Montedio Yamagata31 Oct · home
Pick: Vanraure Hachinohe 43% · missed
L
Sagan Tosu2–0Vanraure Hachinohe25 Oct · away
Pick: Sagan Tosu 51% · hit
W
Tokushima Vortis0–1Vanraure Hachinohe21 Oct · away
Pick: Tokushima Vortis 53% · missed
D
Imabari3–3Vanraure Hachinohe17 Oct · away
Pick: Imabari 38% · missed

Consadole Sapporo

W
Imabari0–4Consadole Sapporo3 Nov · away
Pick: Consadole Sapporo 38% · hit
W
Consadole Sapporo1–0Shonan Bellmare31 Oct · home
Pick: Consadole Sapporo 41% · hit
W
Kataller Toyama0–1Consadole Sapporo25 Oct · away
Pick: Kataller Toyama 53% · missed
W
Montedio Yamagata0–2Consadole Sapporo21 Oct · away
Pick: Montedio Yamagata 44% · missed
W
Consadole Sapporo1–0Blaublitz Akita17 Oct · home
Pick: Consadole Sapporo 41% · hit

About this match

Vanraure Hachinohe and Consadole Sapporo meet in J2 League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 04:00 UTC. The match is played at Prifoods Stadium, Hachinohe. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Vanraure Hachinohe win 42.9%, draw 22.7%, Consadole Sapporo win 34.4%. The pick is Vanraure Hachinohe win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.2%. Both teams to score: 48.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.