ScoreProb
J2 League Japan Round 16 2026

Vegalta Sendai vs Ventforet Kofu

Vegalta Sendai Home · Elo 1,580
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ventforet Kofu Away · Elo 1,474
Yurtec Stadium Sendai Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Vegalta Sendai win
Vegalta Sendai winPick
48.8%
Draw
27.0%
Ventforet Kofu win
24.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.5%
No54.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.5%
Under 2.555.5%

How much we know

Vegalta Sendai history68 matches
Ventforet Kofu history68 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 21 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 06:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Vegalta Sendai are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Vegalta Sendai are rated 106 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,580 against 1,474. On rating alone Vegalta Sendai would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Vegalta Sendai score more

    1.37 goals a game over 68 matches for Vegalta Sendai, against 1.00 over 68 for Ventforet Kofu.

  • Vegalta Sendai concede fewer

    Vegalta Sendai concede 0.94 a game, Ventforet Kofu 1.15.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    40% of Vegalta Sendai matches, against 38% for Ventforet Kofu. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Vegalta Sendai
Ventforet Kofu
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1580.0
ELO
1473.7
68
ELO · Matches
68
1580.0
Current Team ELO
1473.7
1473.7
Current Opponent ELO
1580.0
106.3
Current ELO Difference
-106.3
0.65
Expected score
0.35
68
History Matches
68
0.06
Residual Mean
-0.02
54.56
Overperformance
48.13
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.21
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.20
0.60
Goals for per game
0.40
1.60
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
0.60
0.90
Goals for per game
0.60
1.30
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
10.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.66
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.55
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.15
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.26
Overall performance9 signals
90
68
Matches
68
1.74
PPG
1.26
47.1%
Win rate
33.8%
32.4%
Draw rate
25.0%
20.6%
Loss rate
41.2%
63.2%
Over 1.5 rate
57.4%
39.7%
Over 2.5 rate
38.2%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
16.2%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.40
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
36
1.60
PPG
1.19
42.9%
Win rate
30.6%
31.4%
Draw rate
27.8%
25.7%
Loss rate
41.7%
68.6%
Over 1.5 rate
52.8%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
36.1%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
35
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.37
Goals for per game
1.00
72.1%
Scoring rate
66.2%
44.1%
BTTS rate
44.1%
1.43
Goals for per game
0.86
74.3%
Scoring rate
58.3%
51.4%
BTTS rate
36.1%
1.57
Goals for per game
1.00
78.3%
Scoring rate
65.2%
43.5%
BTTS rate
39.1%
68
History Matches
68
1.37
Goals Mean
1.00
1.24
Goals Std
1.00
72.1%
Scored 1+ rate
66.2%
39.7%
Scored 2+ rate
22.1%
16.2%
Scored 3+ rate
7.4%
1.43
Venue Goals Mean
0.86
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.94
Goals against per game
1.15
57.4%
Conceding rate
67.6%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.17
65.7%
Conceding rate
61.1%
0.78
Goals against per game
0.96
52.2%
Conceding rate
69.6%
68
History Matches
68
0.94
Conceded Mean
1.15
1.08
Conceded Std
1.06
22.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.4%
11.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.8%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.17
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
42.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
27.9%
Failed-to-score rate
33.8%
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
38.9%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
47.8%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
21.7%
Failed-to-score rate
34.8%
42.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
27.9%
Failed-to-score rate
33.8%
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
38.9%
25.7%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
42.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
68
History Matches
68
0.95
Result entropy
0.98
1.59
Goal Difference Std
1.40
4.86
Stability score
1.82
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
67
19
Lead Matches
16
84.2%
Lead Win Rate
62.5%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.67
19
Trailing Matches
19
47.4%
Non-loss rate
10.5%
21.1%
Trailing Win Rate
10.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.46
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.34
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.92
Rest days
77.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.80
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.33
40
Normal Rest History Matches
45
1.85
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.27
22
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.45
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.16
Competition & season17 signals
170
23
Matches
23
2.00
PPG
1.48
56.5%
Win rate
43.5%
30.4%
Draw rate
17.4%
13.0%
Loss rate
39.1%
69.6%
Over 1.5 rate
52.2%
43.5%
Over 2.5 rate
34.8%
26.1%
Over 3.5 rate
8.7%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.33
23
Current Competition Matches
23
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.48
0.78
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.04
6
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.21
Portability PPG Std
0.16
0.50
Portability PPG Range
0.32
70.26
Portability Score
75.74
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
68
Clean History Matches
68
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO106.3
PPG0.47
GF0.37
GA-0.21
PPG0.52
PPG0.41
PPG0.80
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate10.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.37
Goals Std0.24
Scored 1+ rate5.9%
Scored 2+ rate17.6%
Scored 3+ rate8.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.57
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.17
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.21
Conceded Std0.02
Clean-sheet rate10.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.53
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.20
Stability score3.04
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.89
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate21.7%
Lead Points Retention0.23
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate36.8%
Trailing Win Rate10.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.52
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.74
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.05
Portability PPG Range0.18
Portability Score-5.47
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.53
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.58
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.30
Current Team ELO106.3
Current Opponent ELO-106.3
Current ELO Difference212.6
Expected score0.30
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance6.43
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Vegalta Sendai

L
Kataller Toyama1–0Vegalta Sendai3 Nov · away
Pick: Kataller Toyama 39% · hit
L
Vegalta Sendai1–2Omiya Ardija31 Oct · home
Pick: Vegalta Sendai 40% · missed
L
Albirex Niigata2–1Vegalta Sendai25 Oct · away
Pick: Vegalta Sendai 41% · missed
W
Vegalta Sendai3–1Imabari21 Oct · home
Pick: Vegalta Sendai 60% · hit
D
Vegalta Sendai0–0Tokushima Vortis17 Oct · home
Pick: Vegalta Sendai 40% · missed

Ventforet Kofu

L
Ventforet Kofu0–1Albirex Niigata3 Nov · home
Pick: Ventforet Kofu 41% · missed
D
Imabari1–1Ventforet Kofu31 Oct · away
Pick: Imabari 36% · missed
D
Oita Trinita1–1Ventforet Kofu25 Oct · away
Pick: Oita Trinita 42% · missed
L
Ventforet Kofu0–3Yokohama FC21 Oct · home
Pick: Yokohama FC 42% · hit
L
Iwaki5–0Ventforet Kofu18 Oct · away
Pick: Iwaki 40% · hit

About this match

Vegalta Sendai and Ventforet Kofu meet in J2 League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 06:00 UTC. The match is played at Yurtec Stadium Sendai. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Vegalta Sendai win 48.8%, draw 27.0%, Ventforet Kofu win 24.2%. The pick is Vegalta Sendai win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.5%. Both teams to score: 45.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.