ScoreProb
Liga 2 Indonesia Round 9 2026

Tornado Pekanbaru vs Persela Lamongan

Tornado Pekanbaru Home · Elo 1,556
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Persela Lamongan Away · Elo 1,516
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tornado Pekanbaru win
Tornado Pekanbaru winPick
36.6%
Draw
29.8%
Persela Lamongan win
33.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.7%
No51.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.5%
Under 2.553.5%

How much we know

Tornado Pekanbaru history26 matches
Persela Lamongan history30 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Tornado Pekanbaru are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Tornado Pekanbaru are rated 39 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,556 against 1,516. On rating alone Tornado Pekanbaru would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Tornado Pekanbaru score more

    1.81 goals a game over 26 matches for Tornado Pekanbaru, against 1.23 over 30 for Persela Lamongan.

  • Tornado Pekanbaru concede fewer

    Tornado Pekanbaru concede 0.77 a game, Persela Lamongan 0.97.

  • Tornado Pekanbaru games more often go over 2.5 goals

    54% of Tornado Pekanbaru matches, against 37% for Persela Lamongan. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 3 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Tornado Pekanbaru
Persela Lamongan
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1555.7
ELO
1516.4
26
ELO · Matches
30
1555.7
Current Team ELO
1516.4
1516.4
Current Opponent ELO
1555.7
39.31
Current ELO Difference
-39.31
0.56
Expected score
0.44
26
History Matches
30
0.11
Residual Mean
0.01
56.35
Overperformance
50.85
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.60
2.00
Goals for per game
2.00
0.40
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.50
2.00
Goals for per game
1.60
0.40
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.67
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.06
0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.49
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.33
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.65
Overall performance9 signals
90
26
Matches
30
1.92
PPG
1.47
57.7%
Win rate
36.7%
19.2%
Draw rate
36.7%
23.1%
Loss rate
26.7%
69.2%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
53.8%
Over 2.5 rate
36.7%
34.6%
Over 3.5 rate
13.3%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
Venue performance10 signals
100
14
Matches
17
2.14
PPG
1.29
64.3%
Win rate
29.4%
21.4%
Draw rate
41.2%
14.3%
Loss rate
29.4%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
64.7%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
41.2%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
17.6%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.68
14
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.81
Goals for per game
1.23
76.9%
Scoring rate
66.7%
38.5%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.07
Goals for per game
1.00
78.6%
Scoring rate
58.8%
35.7%
BTTS rate
47.1%
26
History Matches
30
1.81
Goals Mean
1.23
1.44
Goals Std
1.41
76.9%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
53.8%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
30.8%
Scored 3+ rate
10.0%
2.07
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.77
Goals against per game
0.97
50.0%
Conceding rate
70.0%
0.50
Goals against per game
1.12
42.9%
Conceding rate
70.6%
26
History Matches
30
0.77
Conceded Mean
0.97
0.93
Conceded Std
0.98
19.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
16.7%
7.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.3%
0.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.12
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
57.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
41.2%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
57.1%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
41.2%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
26
History Matches
30
0.89
Result entropy
0.99
1.85
Goal Difference Std
1.79
11.45
Stability score
0.95
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
26
Eligible Matches
30
13
Lead Matches
6
92.3%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.72
2
Trailing Matches
6
0.0%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
26
Halftime Coverage Matches
30
0.69
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.43
1.12
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
189.1
Rest days
189.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
14
Normal Rest History Matches
19
1.57
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.53
11
Long Rest History Matches
10
2.45
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.40
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.41
—
Portability PPG Range
0.83
—
Portability Score
54.74
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
26
Clean History Matches
30
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO39.31
PPG0.46
GF0.57
GA-0.20
PPG0.85
PPG0.20
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate20.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate27.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches-4
Goals Mean0.57
Goals Std0.03
Scored 1+ rate10.3%
Scored 2+ rate20.5%
Scored 3+ rate20.8%
Venue Goals Mean1.07
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.39
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean-0.20
Conceded Std-0.05
Clean-sheet rate20.0%
Conceded 2+ rate2.6%
Conceded 3+ rate4.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.62
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.84
History Matches-4
Result entropy-0.11
Goal Difference Std0.06
Stability score10.51
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.64
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate25.6%
Lead Points Retention0.20
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.50
Trailing Win Rate-0.17
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.32
Second Half Goals For Mean0.35
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.05
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match1.05
Current Team ELO39.31
Current Opponent ELO-39.31
Current ELO Difference78.62
Expected score0.11
History Matches-4
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance5.50
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Tornado Pekanbaru

D
RANS Nusantara0–0Tornado Pekanbaru29 Oct · away
Pick: Tornado Pekanbaru 65% · missed
D
Tornado Pekanbaru2–2Deltras24 Oct · home
Pick: Tornado Pekanbaru 46% · missed
W
Persiba Balikpapan0–3Tornado Pekanbaru16 Oct · away
Pick: Tornado Pekanbaru 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Persela Lamongan

W
Persela Lamongan3–1Persipura Jayapura31 Oct · home
Pick: Persipura Jayapura 39% · missed
D
Persela Lamongan2–2Dejan25 Oct · home
Pick: Persela Lamongan 60% · missed
W
Barito Putera0–1Persela Lamongan4 Oct · away
Pick: Barito Putera 49% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Tornado Pekanbaru and Persela Lamongan meet in Liga 2 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Tornado Pekanbaru win 36.6%, draw 29.8%, Persela Lamongan win 33.7%. The pick is Tornado Pekanbaru win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.5%. Both teams to score: 48.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.