ScoreProb
Segunda División Chile Promotion Group - 11 2026

Trasandino vs Provincial Osorno

Trasandino Home · Elo 1,477
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Provincial Osorno Away · Elo 1,552
Estadio Regional de Los Andes Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Provincial Osorno win
Trasandino win
33.6%
Draw
25.7%
Provincial Osorno winPick
40.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.0%
No46.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.5%
Under 2.544.5%

How much we know

Trasandino history39 matches
Provincial Osorno history36 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 13 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 22:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Provincial Osorno are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Provincial Osorno are rated 75 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,552 against 1,477. On rating alone Provincial Osorno would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Provincial Osorno score more

    1.28 goals a game over 39 matches for Trasandino, against 1.64 over 36 for Provincial Osorno.

  • Provincial Osorno concede fewer

    Trasandino concede 1.54 a game, Provincial Osorno 1.11.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    56% of Trasandino matches, against 56% for Provincial Osorno. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Trasandino
Provincial Osorno@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1476.7
ELO
1551.7
39
ELO · Matches
36
1476.7
Current Team ELO
1551.7
1551.7
Current Opponent ELO
1476.7
-75.08
Current ELO Difference
75.08
0.39
Expected score
0.61
39
History Matches
36
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.08
47.92
Overperformance
54.87
0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
0.60
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.70
1.60
Goals for per game
0.90
0.90
Goals against per game
0.40
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.40
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.66
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.42
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.02
Overall performance9 signals
90
39
Matches
36
1.23
PPG
1.67
35.9%
Win rate
44.4%
15.4%
Draw rate
33.3%
48.7%
Loss rate
22.2%
71.8%
Over 1.5 rate
69.4%
56.4%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
36.1%
1.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
Venue performance10 signals
100
19
Matches
17
1.26
PPG
1.24
36.8%
Win rate
29.4%
15.8%
Draw rate
35.3%
47.4%
Loss rate
35.3%
73.7%
Over 1.5 rate
64.7%
63.2%
Over 2.5 rate
52.9%
31.6%
Over 3.5 rate
29.4%
1.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.26
19
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.28
Goals for per game
1.64
66.7%
Scoring rate
77.8%
53.8%
BTTS rate
52.8%
1.42
Goals for per game
1.12
73.7%
Scoring rate
64.7%
57.9%
BTTS rate
52.9%
1.25
Goals for per game
1.00
75.0%
Scoring rate
69.2%
62.5%
BTTS rate
23.1%
39
History Matches
36
1.28
Goals Mean
1.64
1.32
Goals Std
1.40
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
77.8%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
47.2%
17.9%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
1.42
Venue Goals Mean
1.12
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.54
Goals against per game
1.11
79.5%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.42
Goals against per game
1.35
73.7%
Conceding rate
76.5%
1.13
Goals against per game
0.46
68.8%
Conceding rate
30.8%
39
History Matches
36
1.54
Conceded Mean
1.11
1.24
Conceded Std
1.02
46.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.6%
15.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.9%
1.42
Venue Conceded Mean
1.35
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.5%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
26.3%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
31.3%
Clean-sheet rate
69.2%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
20.5%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
26.3%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
20.5%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
39
History Matches
36
0.92
Result entropy
0.97
1.86
Goal Difference Std
1.72
8.42
Stability score
3.44
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
39
Eligible Matches
36
10
Lead Matches
12
90.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.83
17
Trailing Matches
6
11.8%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
5.9%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
39
Halftime Coverage Matches
36
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.77
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
78.08
Rest days
84.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
9
Normal Rest History Matches
8
0.78
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.38
29
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.31
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.70
Competition & season17 signals
170
16
Matches
13
1.44
PPG
1.85
37.5%
Win rate
46.2%
31.3%
Draw rate
46.2%
31.3%
Loss rate
7.7%
68.8%
Over 1.5 rate
30.8%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
23.1%
18.8%
Over 3.5 rate
15.4%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.93
16
Current Competition Matches
13
1.44
Current Competition PPG
1.85
0.13
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.54
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.18
Portability PPG Std
0.14
0.35
Portability PPG Range
0.28
74.04
Portability Score
78.07
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
39
Clean History Matches
36
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-75.08
PPG-0.44
GF-0.36
GA0.43
PPG-0.41
PPG0.03
PPG0.00
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate11.1%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate2.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches3
Goals Mean-0.36
Goals Std-0.08
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.48
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.43
Conceded Std0.22
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate15.6%
Conceded 3+ rate1.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.07
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.04
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.14
Stability score4.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.39
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate15.0%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches11
Non-loss rate-0.22
Trailing Win Rate5.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.30
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.31
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Current Competition Matches3
Current Competition PPG-0.41
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.41
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.03
Portability PPG Range0.07
Portability Score-4.02
Rest days-6.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.60
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.39
Current Team ELO-75.08
Current Opponent ELO75.08
Current ELO Difference-150.2
Expected score-0.21
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.11
Overperformance-6.95
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Trasandino

W
Colchagua0–1Trasandino1 Nov · away
Pick: Colchagua 44% · missed
W
Trasandino3–1Concón National24 Oct · home
Pick: Trasandino 41% · hit
D
Provincial Osorno2–2Trasandino29 Aug · away
Pick: Provincial Osorno 53% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Provincial Osorno

W
Provincial Osorno1–0Linares Unido24 Oct · home
Pick: Provincial Osorno 43% · hit
L
Colchagua2–0Provincial Osorno4 Oct · away
Pick: Provincial Osorno 36% · missed
D
Provincial Osorno2–2Trasandino29 Aug · home
Pick: Provincial Osorno 53% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Trasandino and Provincial Osorno meet in Segunda División on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 22:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Regional de Los Andes. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Trasandino win 33.6%, draw 25.7%, Provincial Osorno win 40.7%. The pick is Provincial Osorno win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.5%. Both teams to score: 54.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.