ScoreProb
Segunda División Chile Relegation Group - 11 2026

Provincial Ovalle vs Santiago Morning

Provincial Ovalle Home · Elo 1,431
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Santiago Morning Away · Elo 1,461
Estadio Diaguita Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Santiago Morning win
Provincial Ovalle win
30.8%
Draw
26.3%
Santiago Morning winPick
42.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes44.7%
No55.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.537.9%
Under 2.562.1%

How much we know

Provincial Ovalle history31 matches
Santiago Morning history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Santiago Morning are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Santiago Morning are rated 30 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,461 against 1,431. On rating alone Santiago Morning would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    0.87 goals a game over 31 matches for Provincial Ovalle, against 0.81 over 47 for Santiago Morning.

  • Defences are close

    Provincial Ovalle concede 1.26 a game, Santiago Morning 1.19.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    29% of Provincial Ovalle matches, against 36% for Santiago Morning. The model puts this match at 38% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Provincial Ovalle
Santiago Morning@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1431.0
ELO
1460.7
31
ELO · Matches
47
1431.0
Current Team ELO
1460.7
1460.7
Current Opponent ELO
1431.0
-29.71
Current ELO Difference
29.71
0.46
Expected score
0.54
31
History Matches
47
-0.11
Residual Mean
-0.05
43.04
Overperformance
46.72
-0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
2.40
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.60
PPG
1.10
0.80
Goals for per game
0.90
1.80
Goals against per game
1.10
10.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.54
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.87
Overall performance9 signals
90
31
Matches
47
1.06
PPG
1.11
29.0%
Win rate
25.5%
19.4%
Draw rate
34.0%
51.6%
Loss rate
40.4%
58.1%
Over 1.5 rate
55.3%
29.0%
Over 2.5 rate
36.2%
12.9%
Over 3.5 rate
19.1%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.45
Venue performance10 signals
100
15
Matches
25
1.27
PPG
1.08
33.3%
Win rate
24.0%
26.7%
Draw rate
36.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
64.0%
26.7%
Over 2.5 rate
44.0%
13.3%
Over 3.5 rate
32.0%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
15
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.87
Goals for per game
0.81
54.8%
Scoring rate
55.3%
35.5%
BTTS rate
40.4%
1.00
Goals for per game
0.92
73.3%
Scoring rate
64.0%
46.7%
BTTS rate
48.0%
0.77
Goals for per game
0.93
53.8%
Scoring rate
66.7%
53.8%
BTTS rate
60.0%
31
History Matches
47
0.87
Goals Mean
0.81
0.91
Goals Std
0.89
54.8%
Scored 1+ rate
55.3%
29.0%
Scored 2+ rate
19.1%
3.2%
Scored 3+ rate
6.4%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.92
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.26
Goals against per game
1.19
71.0%
Conceding rate
68.1%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.44
66.7%
Conceding rate
68.0%
1.69
Goals against per game
1.20
92.3%
Conceding rate
86.7%
31
History Matches
47
1.26
Conceded Mean
1.19
1.32
Conceded Std
1.18
29.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.8%
12.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.9%
1.33
Venue Conceded Mean
1.44
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.9%
45.2%
Failed-to-score rate
44.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
36.0%
7.7%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
46.2%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
29.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.9%
45.2%
Failed-to-score rate
44.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
36.0%
29.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
31
History Matches
47
0.93
Result entropy
0.98
1.54
Goal Difference Std
1.45
7.31
Stability score
1.55
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
31
Eligible Matches
46
8
Lead Matches
12
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
58.3%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.69
11
Trailing Matches
7
27.3%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
31
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
0.42
First Half Goals For Mean
0.39
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.30
0.45
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.41
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.89
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.96
Rest days
77.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
8
Normal Rest History Matches
22
0.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.27
22
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.18
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
13
Matches
15
0.54
PPG
1.00
7.7%
Win rate
20.0%
30.8%
Draw rate
40.0%
61.5%
Loss rate
40.0%
61.5%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
30.8%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
23.1%
Over 3.5 rate
26.7%
1.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.06
13
Current Competition Matches
15
0.54
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-0.92
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.27
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.45
Portability PPG Std
0.31
0.91
Portability PPG Range
0.75
52.47
Portability Score
61.59
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
31
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-29.71
PPG-0.04
GF0.06
GA0.07
PPG-0.46
PPG0.19
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate0.5%
History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate1.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-16
Goals Mean0.06
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate0.00
Scored 2+ rate9.9%
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.08
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.05
History Matches-16
Conceded Mean0.07
Conceded Std0.14
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.71
History Matches-16
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std0.09
Stability score5.76
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.68
Eligible Matches-15
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate16.7%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate13.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-15
First Half Goals For Mean0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG-0.46
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.66
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.14
Portability PPG Range0.16
Portability Score-9.12
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-14
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.77
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.18
Current Team ELO-29.71
Current Opponent ELO29.71
Current ELO Difference-59.42
Expected score-0.09
History Matches-16
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-3.68
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Provincial Ovalle

L
Provincial Ovalle1–2General Velásquez24 Oct · home
Pick: General Velásquez 37% · hit
D
Santiago Morning0–0Provincial Ovalle30 Aug · away
Pick: Santiago Morning 54% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Santiago Morning

L
Santiago Morning1–4Lota Schwager31 Oct · home
Pick: Santiago Morning 41% · missed
D
Colina1–1Santiago Morning24 Oct · away
Pick: Colina 44% · missed
D
Santiago Morning0–0Provincial Ovalle30 Aug · home
Pick: Santiago Morning 54% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Provincial Ovalle and Santiago Morning meet in Segunda División on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Diaguita. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Provincial Ovalle win 30.8%, draw 26.3%, Santiago Morning win 42.8%. The pick is Santiago Morning win. Over 2.5 goals: 37.9%. Both teams to score: 44.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.