Lota Schwager vs Colina
Match result probability Model pick: Lota Schwager win
Lota Schwager winPick
43.3%
Draw
29.3%
Colina win
27.4%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes49.3%
No50.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.541.2%
Under 2.558.8%
How much we know
Lota Schwager history15 matches
Colina history13 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Lota Schwager
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 20:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 21:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Lota Schwager are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Lota Schwager are rated 27 Elo points higher
Elo 1,482 against 1,455. On rating alone Lota Schwager would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.
-
Colina score more
1.00 goals a game over 15 matches for Lota Schwager, against 1.23 over 13 for Colina.
-
Lota Schwager concede fewer
Lota Schwager concede 1.07 a game, Colina 1.23.
-
Colina games more often go over 2.5 goals
27% of Lota Schwager matches, against 46% for Colina. The model puts this match at 41% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Colina@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1481.7
ELO
1454.9
15
ELO · Matches
13
1481.7
Current Team ELO
1454.9
1454.9
Current Opponent ELO
1481.7
26.76
Current ELO Difference
-26.76
0.54
Expected score
0.46
15
History Matches
13
-0.05
Residual Mean
-0.18
47.67
Overperformance
42.84
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.18
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.80
1.60
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.30
1.10
Goals against per game
1.20
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.35
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.22
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.64
Overall performance9 signals 90
15
Matches
13
1.13
PPG
0.92
26.7%
Win rate
23.1%
33.3%
Draw rate
23.1%
40.0%
Loss rate
53.8%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
69.2%
26.7%
Over 2.5 rate
46.2%
13.3%
Over 3.5 rate
15.4%
1.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
Venue performance10 signals 100
8
Matches
7
1.13
PPG
0.71
25.0%
Win rate
14.3%
37.5%
Draw rate
28.6%
37.5%
Loss rate
57.1%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
57.1%
37.5%
Over 2.5 rate
28.6%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.73
8
History Matches
7
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.00
Goals for per game
1.23
73.3%
Scoring rate
76.9%
53.3%
BTTS rate
61.5%
1.13
Goals for per game
0.71
75.0%
Scoring rate
71.4%
62.5%
BTTS rate
57.1%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.23
73.3%
Scoring rate
76.9%
53.3%
BTTS rate
61.5%
15
History Matches
13
1.00
Goals Mean
1.23
0.82
Goals Std
1.25
73.3%
Scored 1+ rate
76.9%
20.0%
Scored 2+ rate
23.1%
6.7%
Scored 3+ rate
7.7%
1.13
Venue Goals Mean
0.71
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.07
Goals against per game
1.23
80.0%
Conceding rate
84.6%
1.25
Goals against per game
1.14
87.5%
Conceding rate
85.7%
1.07
Goals against per game
1.23
80.0%
Conceding rate
84.6%
15
History Matches
13
1.07
Conceded Mean
1.23
0.68
Conceded Std
0.70
26.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.5%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
1.25
Venue Conceded Mean
1.14
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
15
History Matches
13
0.99
Result entropy
0.92
1.12
Goal Difference Std
1.47
1.22
Stability score
8.06
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
14
Eligible Matches
13
3
Lead Matches
3
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.78
5
Trailing Matches
4
40.0%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
14
Halftime Coverage Matches
13
0.36
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.64
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
78.04
Rest days
83.21
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
8
Normal Rest History Matches
4
0.75
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.50
6
Long Rest History Matches
8
1.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.25
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Portability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
15
Matches
13
1.13
PPG
0.92
26.7%
Win rate
23.1%
33.3%
Draw rate
23.1%
40.0%
Loss rate
53.8%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
69.2%
26.7%
Over 2.5 rate
46.2%
13.3%
Over 3.5 rate
15.4%
1.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
15
Current Competition Matches
13
1.13
Current Competition PPG
0.92
-0.07
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
1
Competition Season Count
1
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
15
Clean History Matches
13
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO26.76
PPG0.21
GF-0.23
GA-0.16
PPG0.21
PPG0.41
PPG0.80
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate4.6%
Failed-to-score rate3.6%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.23
Goals Std-0.43
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.41
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.47
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.16
Conceded Std-0.02
Clean-sheet rate4.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.05
History Matches2
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.34
Stability score-6.83
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.42
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate15.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Current Competition Matches2
Current Competition PPG0.21
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.07
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days-5.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.25
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.42
Current Team ELO26.76
Current Opponent ELO-26.76
Current ELO Difference53.53
Expected score0.08
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.13
Overperformance4.83
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.21
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Lota Schwager
W
Santiago Morning1–4Lota Schwager31 Oct · away
Pick: Santiago Morning 41% · missed W
Lota Schwager5–1Deportes Rengo24 Oct · home
Pick: Lota Schwager 40% · hit D
Colina0–0Lota Schwager29 Aug · away
Pick: Colina 42% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Colina
D
Colina1–1Santiago Morning24 Oct · home
Pick: Colina 44% · missed W
General Velásquez2–3Colina4 Oct · away
Pick: General Velásquez 44% · missed D
Colina0–0Lota Schwager29 Aug · home
Pick: Colina 42% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Lota Schwager and Colina meet in Segunda División on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Lota Schwager win 43.3%, draw 29.3%, Colina win 27.4%. The pick is Lota Schwager win. Over 2.5 goals: 41.2%. Both teams to score: 49.3%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.