ScoreProb
Serie C - Girone A Italy Girone A - 13 2026

Trento vs Albinoleffe

Trento Home · Elo 1,537
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Albinoleffe Away · Elo 1,511
Stadio Briamasco, Trento Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Trento win
Trento winPick
42.5%
Draw
30.5%
Albinoleffe win
27.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.3%
No46.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.4%
Under 2.547.6%

How much we know

Trento history62 matches
Albinoleffe history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 16:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Trento are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Trento are rated 27 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,537 against 1,511. On rating alone Trento would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.39 goals a game over 62 matches for Trento, against 1.35 over 60 for Albinoleffe.

  • Trento concede fewer

    Trento concede 1.15 a game, Albinoleffe 1.33.

  • Albinoleffe games more often go over 2.5 goals

    48% of Trento matches, against 58% for Albinoleffe. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Trento
Albinoleffe
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1537.5
ELO
1510.7
62
ELO · Matches
60
1537.5
Current Team ELO
1510.7
1510.7
Current Opponent ELO
1537.5
26.81
Current ELO Difference
-26.81
0.54
Expected score
0.46
62
History Matches
60
0.04
Residual Mean
0.01
52.67
Overperformance
50.89
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.80
1.20
Goals for per game
2.00
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.60
1.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.30
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.01
Overall performance9 signals
90
62
Matches
60
1.50
PPG
1.40
38.7%
Win rate
38.3%
33.9%
Draw rate
25.0%
27.4%
Loss rate
36.7%
77.4%
Over 1.5 rate
78.3%
48.4%
Over 2.5 rate
58.3%
25.8%
Over 3.5 rate
26.7%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
29
1.76
PPG
1.17
45.5%
Win rate
27.6%
39.4%
Draw rate
34.5%
15.2%
Loss rate
37.9%
69.7%
Over 1.5 rate
82.8%
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
62.1%
30.3%
Over 3.5 rate
27.6%
1.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
33
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.39
Goals for per game
1.35
74.2%
Scoring rate
78.3%
56.5%
BTTS rate
56.7%
1.58
Goals for per game
1.24
81.8%
Scoring rate
79.3%
57.6%
BTTS rate
69.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
62
History Matches
60
1.39
Goals Mean
1.35
1.18
Goals Std
1.00
74.2%
Scored 1+ rate
78.3%
41.9%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
16.1%
Scored 3+ rate
16.7%
1.58
Venue Goals Mean
1.24
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.15
Goals against per game
1.33
72.6%
Conceding rate
71.7%
0.94
Goals against per game
1.55
66.7%
Conceding rate
79.3%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
62
History Matches
60
1.15
Conceded Mean
1.33
0.91
Conceded Std
1.21
33.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.3%
8.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.7%
0.94
Venue Conceded Mean
1.55
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
20.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
27.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.7%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
20.7%
27.4%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
62
History Matches
60
0.99
Result entropy
0.98
1.53
Goal Difference Std
1.69
0.89
Stability score
1.51
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
62
Eligible Matches
60
16
Lead Matches
18
68.8%
Lead Win Rate
72.2%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.78
18
Trailing Matches
18
38.9%
Non-loss rate
27.8%
5.6%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.45
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.94
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.90
Rest days
76.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
36
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.67
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.42
24
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.29
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
3.00
100.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
9
Competition Season Count
7
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.16
Portability PPG Std
0.28
0.32
Portability PPG Range
0.68
75.50
Portability Score
64.16
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
62
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO26.81
PPG0.10
GF0.04
GA-0.19
PPG0.00
PPG0.59
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate4.1%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate12.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.04
Goals Std0.19
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate1.9%
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.06
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.19
Conceded Std-0.29
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.61
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.08
History Matches2
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.16
Stability score-0.62
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.97
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate11.1%
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.12
Portability PPG Range-0.36
Portability Score11.34
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.24
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.04
Current Team ELO26.81
Current Opponent ELO-26.81
Current ELO Difference53.61
Expected score0.08
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.78
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Trento

D
Ospitaletto0–0Trento31 Oct · away
Pick: Ospitaletto 46% · missed
W
Trento2–1Juventus U2325 Oct · home
Pick: Trento 42% · hit
W
Dolomiti Bellunesi0–3Trento19 Oct · away
Pick: Dolomiti Bellunesi 39% · missed
D
Alcione2–2Trento4 Oct · away
Pick: Alcione 41% · missed
D
Desenzano Calvina0–0Trento31 Aug · away
Pick: Desenzano Calvina 44% · missed

Albinoleffe

W
Albinoleffe3–2Pergolettese30 Oct · home
Pick: Albinoleffe 61% · hit
D
Renate0–0Albinoleffe25 Oct · away
Pick: Renate 45% · missed
D
Albinoleffe2–2Novara18 Oct · home
Pick: Albinoleffe 53% · missed
D
Albinoleffe1–1Ospitaletto31 Aug · home
Pick: Albinoleffe 36% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Trento and Albinoleffe meet in Serie C - Girone A on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadio Briamasco, Trento. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Trento win 42.5%, draw 30.5%, Albinoleffe win 27.0%. The pick is Trento win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.4%. Both teams to score: 53.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.