ScoreProb
Eliteserien Norway Round 26 2026

Tromso vs Bodo/Glimt

Tromso Home · Elo 1,643
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bodo/Glimt Away · Elo 1,756
Romssa Arena Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bodo/Glimt win
Tromso win
30.0%
Draw
25.1%
Bodo/Glimt winPick
44.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.4%
No42.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.2%
Under 2.536.8%

How much we know

Tromso history70 matches
Bodo/Glimt history86 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Bodo/Glimt are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Bodo/Glimt are rated 113 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,756 against 1,643. On rating alone Bodo/Glimt would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Bodo/Glimt score more

    1.87 goals a game over 70 matches for Tromso, against 2.56 over 86 for Bodo/Glimt.

  • Defences are close

    Tromso concede 1.11 a game, Bodo/Glimt 1.06.

  • Bodo/Glimt games more often go over 2.5 goals

    53% of Tromso matches, against 77% for Bodo/Glimt. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Tromso
Bodo/Glimt
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1643.4
ELO
1756.1
70
ELO · Matches
86
1643.4
Current Team ELO
1756.1
1756.1
Current Opponent ELO
1643.4
-112.6
Current ELO Difference
112.6
0.34
Expected score
0.66
70
History Matches
86
0.10
Residual Mean
0.14
57.68
Overperformance
61.53
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.21
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
2.20
4.00
Goals for per game
2.60
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
2.60
2.90
Goals for per game
2.60
1.10
Goals against per game
0.70
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
2.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.60
2.07
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.80
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.70
1.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
2.56
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.30
Overall performance9 signals
90
70
Matches
86
1.87
PPG
2.08
57.1%
Win rate
64.0%
15.7%
Draw rate
16.3%
27.1%
Loss rate
19.8%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
91.9%
52.9%
Over 2.5 rate
76.7%
41.4%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.23
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.30
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
45
2.03
PPG
1.87
61.8%
Win rate
55.6%
17.6%
Draw rate
20.0%
20.6%
Loss rate
24.4%
64.7%
Over 1.5 rate
93.3%
44.1%
Over 2.5 rate
77.8%
29.4%
Over 3.5 rate
46.7%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.28
34
History Matches
45
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.87
Goals for per game
2.56
80.0%
Scoring rate
91.9%
48.6%
BTTS rate
54.7%
1.56
Goals for per game
2.22
79.4%
Scoring rate
91.1%
41.2%
BTTS rate
68.9%
2.00
Goals for per game
2.53
76.5%
Scoring rate
88.2%
41.2%
BTTS rate
29.4%
70
History Matches
86
1.87
Goals Mean
2.56
1.72
Goals Std
1.67
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
91.9%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
70.9%
28.6%
Scored 3+ rate
46.5%
1.56
Venue Goals Mean
2.22
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.11
Goals against per game
1.06
62.9%
Conceding rate
62.8%
0.79
Goals against per game
1.33
52.9%
Conceding rate
77.8%
1.18
Goals against per game
0.71
52.9%
Conceding rate
41.2%
70
History Matches
86
1.11
Conceded Mean
1.06
1.25
Conceded Std
1.07
24.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.2%
15.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.3%
0.79
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
37.1%
Clean-sheet rate
37.2%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
8.1%
47.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
20.6%
Failed-to-score rate
8.9%
47.1%
Clean-sheet rate
58.8%
23.5%
Failed-to-score rate
11.8%
37.1%
Clean-sheet rate
37.2%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
8.1%
47.1%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
20.6%
Failed-to-score rate
8.9%
37.1%
Clean-sheet rate
37.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
70
History Matches
86
0.88
Result entropy
0.82
2.23
Goal Difference Std
2.30
12.20
Stability score
17.91
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
70
Eligible Matches
85
31
Lead Matches
50
80.6%
Lead Win Rate
86.0%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.88
12
Trailing Matches
15
16.7%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
13.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
70
Halftime Coverage Matches
85
0.90
First Half Goals For Mean
1.19
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
0.97
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.35
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.98
Rest days
74.77
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
5
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.40
37
Normal Rest History Matches
60
1.76
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.95
29
Long Rest History Matches
20
2.03
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.45
Competition & season17 signals
170
17
Matches
17
2.00
PPG
2.41
58.8%
Win rate
76.5%
23.5%
Draw rate
11.8%
17.6%
Loss rate
11.8%
82.4%
Over 1.5 rate
88.2%
52.9%
Over 2.5 rate
70.6%
47.1%
Over 3.5 rate
41.2%
2.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.36
17
Current Competition Matches
17
2.00
Current Competition PPG
2.41
0.82
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.82
10
Competition Season Count
8
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
8
0.17
Portability PPG Std
0.54
0.43
Portability PPG Range
1.89
75.07
Portability Score
48.13
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
70
Clean History Matches
86
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-112.6
PPG-0.21
GF-0.69
GA0.06
PPG-0.41
PPG0.16
PPG0.20
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate11.9%
History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate24.8%
Failed-to-score rate11.7%
History Matches-16
Goals Mean-0.69
Goals Std0.06
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate-0.21
Scored 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Goals Mean-0.66
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std1.27
History Matches-16
Conceded Mean0.06
Conceded Std0.18
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate6.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.13
History Matches-16
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.07
Stability score-5.71
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.26
Eligible Matches-15
Lead Matches-19
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.23
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches-15
First Half Goals For Mean-0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.38
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.41
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std-0.37
Portability PPG Range-1.46
Portability Score26.94
Rest days3.21
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.40
Normal Rest History Matches-23
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.19
Long Rest History Matches9
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.42
Current Team ELO-112.6
Current Opponent ELO112.6
Current ELO Difference-225.2
Expected score-0.31
History Matches-16
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.85
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Tromso

L
Valerenga4–0Tromso1 Nov · away
Pick: Tromso 51% · missed
W
Tromso3–2Haugesund28 Oct · home
Pick: Tromso 69% · hit
L
Viking3–1Tromso25 Oct · away
Pick: Viking 57% · hit
D
Tromso1–1KFUM Oslo18 Oct · home
Pick: Tromso 62% · missed
D
Tromso0–0Sarpsborg 08 FF30 Aug · home
Pick: Tromso 59% · missed

Bodo/Glimt

D
Bodo/Glimt0–0Lille3 Nov · home
Pick: Bodo/Glimt 49% · missed
W
Bodo/Glimt3–2Viking30 Oct · home
Pick: Bodo/Glimt 55% · hit
L
Bodo/Glimt0–1Valerenga24 Oct · home
Pick: Bodo/Glimt 73% · missed
L
Napoli4–3Bodo/Glimt20 Oct · away
Pick: Bodo/Glimt 44% · missed
W
Ham-Kam0–2Bodo/Glimt17 Oct · away
Pick: Bodo/Glimt 62% · hit

About this match

Tromso and Bodo/Glimt meet in Eliteserien on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. The match is played at Romssa Arena. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Tromso win 30.0%, draw 25.1%, Bodo/Glimt win 44.9%. The pick is Bodo/Glimt win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.2%. Both teams to score: 57.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.