ScoreProb
Eliteserien Norway Round 26 2026

Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF

Ham-Kam Home · Elo 1,559
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sarpsborg 08 FF Away · Elo 1,570
Briskeby Arena, Hamar Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ham-Kam win
Ham-Kam winPick
41.4%
Draw
26.7%
Sarpsborg 08 FF win
31.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.8%
No39.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.2%
Under 2.538.8%

How much we know

Ham-Kam history65 matches
Sarpsborg 08 FF history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Ham-Kam are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,559 against 1,570. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.58 goals a game over 65 matches for Ham-Kam, against 1.69 over 67 for Sarpsborg 08 FF.

  • Defences are close

    Ham-Kam concede 1.45 a game, Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.52.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    63% of Ham-Kam matches, against 64% for Sarpsborg 08 FF. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ham-Kam
Sarpsborg 08 FF
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1559.4
ELO
1570.0
65
ELO · Matches
67
1559.4
Current Team ELO
1570.0
1570.0
Current Opponent ELO
1559.4
-10.61
Current ELO Difference
10.61
0.48
Expected score
0.52
65
History Matches
67
0.04
Residual Mean
0.05
52.79
Overperformance
53.52
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
1.60
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.70
1.60
Goals for per game
1.50
1.70
Goals against per game
1.20
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.81
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.27
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.51
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
67
1.45
PPG
1.49
41.5%
Win rate
41.8%
20.0%
Draw rate
23.9%
38.5%
Loss rate
34.3%
86.2%
Over 1.5 rate
80.6%
63.1%
Over 2.5 rate
64.2%
36.9%
Over 3.5 rate
43.3%
2.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
36
1.72
PPG
1.33
51.7%
Win rate
36.1%
17.2%
Draw rate
25.0%
31.0%
Loss rate
38.9%
86.2%
Over 1.5 rate
86.1%
65.5%
Over 2.5 rate
69.4%
41.4%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
29
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.58
Goals for per game
1.69
78.5%
Scoring rate
80.6%
53.8%
BTTS rate
64.2%
1.76
Goals for per game
1.72
89.7%
Scoring rate
77.8%
62.1%
BTTS rate
63.9%
1.41
Goals for per game
1.18
82.4%
Scoring rate
76.5%
58.8%
BTTS rate
58.8%
65
History Matches
67
1.58
Goals Mean
1.69
1.30
Goals Std
1.26
78.5%
Scored 1+ rate
80.6%
47.7%
Scored 2+ rate
52.2%
18.5%
Scored 3+ rate
26.9%
1.76
Venue Goals Mean
1.72
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.45
Goals against per game
1.52
73.8%
Conceding rate
79.1%
1.38
Goals against per game
1.67
69.0%
Conceding rate
77.8%
1.76
Goals against per game
1.35
76.5%
Conceding rate
76.5%
65
History Matches
67
1.45
Conceded Mean
1.52
1.30
Conceded Std
1.27
38.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.8%
21.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.4%
1.38
Venue Conceded Mean
1.67
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.9%
21.5%
Failed-to-score rate
19.4%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
10.3%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.9%
21.5%
Failed-to-score rate
19.4%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
10.3%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
26.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
67
0.96
Result entropy
0.98
2.20
Goal Difference Std
1.82
4.03
Stability score
2.27
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
67
24
Lead Matches
25
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
84.0%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.88
22
Trailing Matches
18
18.2%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
0.70
First Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.13
Rest days
78.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
42
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.52
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.54
21
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
17
Matches
17
1.29
PPG
1.29
35.3%
Win rate
35.3%
23.5%
Draw rate
23.5%
41.2%
Loss rate
41.2%
88.2%
Over 1.5 rate
70.6%
70.6%
Over 2.5 rate
52.9%
35.3%
Over 3.5 rate
17.6%
2.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.34
17
Current Competition Matches
17
1.29
Current Competition PPG
1.29
-0.35
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.18
7
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.45
Portability PPG Std
0.56
1.27
Portability PPG Range
1.40
52.48
Portability Score
46.96
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-10.61
PPG-0.05
GF-0.10
GA-0.08
PPG0.00
PPG0.39
PPG0.00
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate5.3%
Failed-to-score rate2.1%
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate8.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.10
Goals Std0.04
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean0.04
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.69
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.08
Conceded Std0.03
Clean-sheet rate5.3%
Conceded 2+ rate0.00
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.10
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.38
Stability score1.76
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.50
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.09
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.15
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.18
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.11
Portability PPG Range-0.13
Portability Score5.51
Rest days-0.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.33
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.21
Current Team ELO-10.61
Current Opponent ELO10.61
Current ELO Difference-21.21
Expected score-0.03
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.73
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ham-Kam

D
KFUM Oslo2–2Ham-Kam1 Nov · away
Pick: KFUM Oslo 46% · missed
W
Rosenborg1–2Ham-Kam28 Oct · away
Pick: Rosenborg 59% · missed
L
Ham-Kam0–3Rosenborg24 Oct · home
Pick: Rosenborg 42% · hit
L
Ham-Kam0–2Bodo/Glimt17 Oct · home
Pick: Bodo/Glimt 62% · hit
D
Ham-Kam2–2Kristiansund BK30 Aug · home
Pick: Ham-Kam 52% · missed

Sarpsborg 08 FF

L
Sarpsborg 08 FF2–4Kristiansund BK1 Nov · home
Pick: Sarpsborg 08 FF 53% · missed
W
Sarpsborg 08 FF3–2Valerenga28 Oct · home
Pick: Sarpsborg 08 FF 42% · hit
W
Sarpsborg 08 FF2–1Aalesund25 Oct · home
Pick: Sarpsborg 08 FF 49% · hit
L
Sarpsborg 08 FF0–3Rosenborg18 Oct · home
Pick: Rosenborg 39% · hit
D
Tromso0–0Sarpsborg 08 FF30 Aug · away
Pick: Tromso 59% · missed

About this match

Ham-Kam and Sarpsborg 08 FF meet in Eliteserien on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. The match is played at Briskeby Arena, Hamar. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Ham-Kam win 41.4%, draw 26.7%, Sarpsborg 08 FF win 31.9%. The pick is Ham-Kam win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.2%. Both teams to score: 60.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.