ScoreProb
First Amateur Division Belgium VV - 11 2026

Roeselare Daisel vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven II

Roeselare Daisel Home · Elo 1,591
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Oud-Heverlee Leuven II Away · Elo 1,462
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Oud-Heverlee Leuven II win
Roeselare Daisel win
37.3%
Draw
23.6%
Oud-Heverlee Leuven II winPick
39.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.1%
No43.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.1%
Under 2.535.9%

How much we know

Roeselare Daisel history41 matches
Oud-Heverlee Leuven II history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.0%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Oud-Heverlee Leuven II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Roeselare Daisel are rated 130 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,591 against 1,462. On rating alone Roeselare Daisel would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Oud-Heverlee Leuven II score more

    1.56 goals a game over 41 matches for Roeselare Daisel, against 1.93 over 45 for Oud-Heverlee Leuven II.

  • Roeselare Daisel concede fewer

    Roeselare Daisel concede 0.95 a game, Oud-Heverlee Leuven II 2.00.

  • Oud-Heverlee Leuven II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    37% of Roeselare Daisel matches, against 80% for Oud-Heverlee Leuven II. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 19 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Roeselare Daisel
Oud-Heverlee Leuven II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1591.5
ELO
1461.5
41
ELO · Matches
45
1591.5
Current Team ELO
1461.5
1461.5
Current Opponent ELO
1591.5
130.0
Current ELO Difference
-130.0
0.68
Expected score
0.32
41
History Matches
45
0.11
Residual Mean
-0.04
57.49
Overperformance
46.98
0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
2.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
1.00
2.30
Goals for per game
2.20
1.30
Goals against per game
2.30
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.68
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.90
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.21
Overall performance9 signals
90
41
Matches
45
1.83
PPG
1.24
48.8%
Win rate
37.8%
36.6%
Draw rate
11.1%
14.6%
Loss rate
51.1%
63.4%
Over 1.5 rate
91.1%
36.6%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
26.8%
Over 3.5 rate
53.3%
1.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.26
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
23
1.95
PPG
0.96
52.4%
Win rate
30.4%
38.1%
Draw rate
4.3%
9.5%
Loss rate
65.2%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
95.7%
47.6%
Over 2.5 rate
82.6%
38.1%
Over 3.5 rate
52.2%
1.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.21
21
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.56
Goals for per game
1.93
75.6%
Scoring rate
93.3%
48.8%
BTTS rate
75.6%
1.86
Goals for per game
1.96
81.0%
Scoring rate
91.3%
57.1%
BTTS rate
78.3%
41
History Matches
45
1.56
Goals Mean
1.93
1.40
Goals Std
1.40
75.6%
Scored 1+ rate
93.3%
41.5%
Scored 2+ rate
44.4%
24.4%
Scored 3+ rate
31.1%
1.86
Venue Goals Mean
1.96
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.95
Goals against per game
2.00
58.5%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.10
Goals against per game
2.09
61.9%
Conceding rate
87.0%
41
History Matches
45
0.95
Conceded Mean
2.00
1.01
Conceded Std
1.58
26.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
62.2%
7.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
31.1%
1.10
Venue Conceded Mean
2.09
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
41.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
24.4%
Failed-to-score rate
6.7%
38.1%
Clean-sheet rate
13.0%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
8.7%
41.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
24.4%
Failed-to-score rate
6.7%
38.1%
Clean-sheet rate
13.0%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
8.7%
41.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
41
History Matches
45
0.91
Result entropy
0.87
1.15
Goal Difference Std
2.26
9.04
Stability score
13.08
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
35
Eligible Matches
42
9
Lead Matches
16
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.74
Lead Points Retention
0.77
6
Trailing Matches
16
66.7%
Non-loss rate
18.8%
33.3%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
35
Halftime Coverage Matches
42
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.95
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
0.91
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.98
0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.17
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
195.3
Rest days
80.33
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
20
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.80
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.84
20
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.80
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.78
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.10
Portability PPG Std
0.24
0.20
Portability PPG Range
0.48
83.33
Portability Score
67.42
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
41
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO130.0
PPG0.58
GF-0.37
GA-1.05
PPG1.00
PPG0.20
PPG1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate21.5%
Failed-to-score rate17.7%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate25.1%
Failed-to-score rate10.4%
History Matches-4
Goals Mean-0.37
Goals Std-0.01
Scored 1+ rate-0.18
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.51
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean-1.05
Conceded Std-0.57
Clean-sheet rate21.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.35
Conceded 3+ rate-0.24
Venue Conceded Mean-0.99
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.80
History Matches-4
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-1.12
Stability score-4.04
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.12
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches-10
Non-loss rate47.9%
Trailing Win Rate20.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.29
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.65
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.14
Portability PPG Range-0.28
Portability Score15.92
Rest days114.9
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.96
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.02
Current Team ELO130.0
Current Opponent ELO-130.0
Current ELO Difference259.9
Expected score0.36
History Matches-4
Residual Mean0.16
Overperformance10.51
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.28

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Roeselare Daisel

W
Merelbeke0–4Roeselare Daisel30 Oct · away
Pick: Merelbeke 44% · missed
W
Roeselare Daisel2–1Knokke24 Oct · home
Pick: Knokke 42% · missed
D
Hoogstraten1–1Roeselare Daisel17 Oct · away
Pick: Hoogstraten 45% · missed
D
Roeselare Daisel1–1Spouwen-Mopertingen30 Aug · home
Pick: Spouwen-Mopertingen 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Oud-Heverlee Leuven II

D
Oud-Heverlee Leuven II3–3Cercle Brugge II1 Nov · home
Pick: Oud-Heverlee Leuven II 49% · missed
D
Dessel Sport2–2Oud-Heverlee Leuven II24 Oct · away
Pick: Oud-Heverlee Leuven II 46% · missed
W
Oud-Heverlee Leuven II4–1Harelbeke18 Oct · home
Pick: Harelbeke 41% · missed
L
Knokke3–2Oud-Heverlee Leuven II4 Oct · away
Pick: Knokke 52% · hit
L
Houtvenne3–1Oud-Heverlee Leuven II29 Aug · away
Pick: Oud-Heverlee Leuven II 47% · missed

About this match

Roeselare Daisel and Oud-Heverlee Leuven II meet in First Amateur Division on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Roeselare Daisel win 37.3%, draw 23.6%, Oud-Heverlee Leuven II win 39.0%. The pick is Oud-Heverlee Leuven II win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.1%. Both teams to score: 56.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.