ScoreProb
1. Division Belarus Round 27 2026

Uni Minsk vs Dinamo Minsk II

Uni Minsk Home · Elo 1,437
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Dinamo Minsk II Away · Elo 1,442
Dinamo-Yuni Stadium, Minsk Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Uni Minsk win
Uni Minsk winPick
41.4%
Draw
25.1%
Dinamo Minsk II win
33.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.0%
No42.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.9%
Under 2.543.1%

How much we know

Uni Minsk history59 matches
Dinamo Minsk II history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Uni Minsk are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,437 against 1,442. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Uni Minsk score more

    1.37 goals a game over 59 matches for Uni Minsk, against 1.18 over 56 for Dinamo Minsk II.

  • Dinamo Minsk II concede fewer

    Uni Minsk concede 1.75 a game, Dinamo Minsk II 1.38.

  • Uni Minsk games more often go over 2.5 goals

    63% of Uni Minsk matches, against 52% for Dinamo Minsk II. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Uni Minsk
Dinamo Minsk II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1437.1
ELO
1442.0
59
ELO · Matches
56
1437.1
Current Team ELO
1442.0
1442.0
Current Opponent ELO
1437.1
-4.90
Current ELO Difference
4.90
0.49
Expected score
0.51
59
History Matches
56
-0.05
Residual Mean
-0.05
45.94
Overperformance
46.50
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.00
1.40
Goals for per game
0.80
0.20
Goals against per game
2.40
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
0.80
1.10
Goals for per game
1.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.70
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.14
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.89
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.41
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.87
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.55
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
56
1.17
PPG
1.16
32.2%
Win rate
30.4%
20.3%
Draw rate
25.0%
47.5%
Loss rate
44.6%
84.7%
Over 1.5 rate
76.8%
62.7%
Over 2.5 rate
51.8%
32.2%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
2.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
27
1.14
PPG
1.19
31.0%
Win rate
29.6%
20.7%
Draw rate
29.6%
48.3%
Loss rate
40.7%
79.3%
Over 1.5 rate
81.5%
58.6%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
37.9%
Over 3.5 rate
18.5%
2.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
29
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.37
Goals for per game
1.18
71.2%
Scoring rate
64.3%
47.5%
BTTS rate
48.2%
1.41
Goals for per game
1.19
72.4%
Scoring rate
77.8%
51.7%
BTTS rate
63.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.65
61.9%
Scoring rate
85.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
75.0%
59
History Matches
56
1.37
Goals Mean
1.18
1.19
Goals Std
1.20
71.2%
Scored 1+ rate
64.3%
42.4%
Scored 2+ rate
33.9%
18.6%
Scored 3+ rate
12.5%
1.41
Venue Goals Mean
1.19
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.75
Goals against per game
1.38
69.5%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.79
Goals against per game
1.37
72.4%
Conceding rate
77.8%
1.29
Goals against per game
1.60
57.1%
Conceding rate
85.0%
59
History Matches
56
1.75
Conceded Mean
1.38
1.63
Conceded Std
1.14
50.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.1%
28.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.3%
1.79
Venue Conceded Mean
1.37
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
28.8%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
38.1%
Failed-to-score rate
15.0%
30.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
28.8%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
27.6%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
30.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
56
0.95
Result entropy
0.97
2.18
Goal Difference Std
1.84
5.10
Stability score
2.74
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
56
19
Lead Matches
18
68.4%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.61
19
Trailing Matches
19
10.5%
Non-loss rate
10.5%
5.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.76
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.97
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.13
Rest days
74.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
31
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.39
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.39
27
Long Rest History Matches
26
0.96
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
21
Matches
20
1.14
PPG
1.25
28.6%
Win rate
35.0%
28.6%
Draw rate
20.0%
42.9%
Loss rate
45.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
95.0%
47.6%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
23.8%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.91
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
21
Current Competition Matches
20
1.14
Current Competition PPG
1.25
-0.29
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.05
5
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.02
Portability PPG Std
0.06
0.04
Portability PPG Range
0.13
96.25
Portability Score
88.59
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-4.90
PPG0.01
GF0.19
GA0.37
PPG-0.11
PPG-0.05
PPG1.80
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate5.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate5.4%
Failed-to-score rate5.4%
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.19
Goals Std-0.01
Scored 1+ rate6.9%
Scored 2+ rate8.4%
Scored 3+ rate6.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.23
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.24
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.37
Conceded Std0.49
Clean-sheet rate5.5%
Conceded 2+ rate9.8%
Conceded 3+ rate14.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.42
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.41
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.34
Stability score2.36
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.32
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate18.4%
Lead Points Retention0.16
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate5.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.18
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-0.11
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.34
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.04
Portability PPG Range-0.09
Portability Score7.66
Rest days-0.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.01
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.04
Current Team ELO-4.90
Current Opponent ELO4.90
Current ELO Difference-9.80
Expected score-0.01
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.57
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Uni Minsk

L
Uni Minsk1–3Lida31 Oct · home
Pick: Lida 44% · hit
D
Niva1–1Uni Minsk25 Oct · away
Pick: Niva 66% · missed
L
Uni Minsk0–1Molodechno-DYuSSh 429 Aug · home
Pick: Uni Minsk 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Dinamo Minsk II

L
Dinamo Minsk II0–2Shakhter Soligorsk1 Nov · home
Pick: Dinamo Minsk II 47% · missed
W
Dinamo Minsk II1–0Molodechno-DYuSSh 429 Oct · home
Pick: Dinamo Minsk II 39% · hit
W
Dinamo Minsk II3–2Smorgon30 Aug · home
Pick: Dinamo Minsk II 46% · hit
W
Orsha1–4Dinamo Minsk II26 Aug · away
Pick: Dinamo Minsk II 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Uni Minsk and Dinamo Minsk II meet in 1. Division on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Dinamo-Yuni Stadium, Minsk. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Uni Minsk win 41.4%, draw 25.1%, Dinamo Minsk II win 33.5%. The pick is Uni Minsk win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.9%. Both teams to score: 58.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.