União Leiria U23 vs Estoril U23
What we said before kickoff Result: União Leiria U23 win
União Leiria U23 winPick Result
37.2%
Draw
28.5%
Estoril U23 win
34.3%
How our picks did
Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.
Match result
Our pickUnião Leiria U23 win · 37.2%
What happenedUnião Leiria U23 win · we gave it 37.2%
Hit Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 52.3%
What happenedOver · 3 goals
Hit Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 56.2%
What happenedYes · 2–1
Hit How surprising was it?
Result: União Leiria U23 win. In our numbers it ranked first of the three.
37%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 2.7
on average A pick at 37% is expected to miss about 6 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Timeline
Newest at the bottom
24'
Goal
Goal
35' Goal
55' Both teams to score
Yes56.2%
No43.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.552.3%
Under 2.547.7%
How much we know
União Leiria U23 history32 matches
Estoril U23 history46 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full time: 2–1All three of our picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.2%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.
Why União Leiria U23 are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,464 against 1,450. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
União Leiria U23 score more
1.28 goals a game over 32 matches for União Leiria U23, against 1.09 over 46 for Estoril U23.
-
União Leiria U23 concede fewer
União Leiria U23 concede 1.50 a game, Estoril U23 1.72.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
47% of União Leiria U23 matches, against 54% for Estoril U23. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Estoril U23@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1464.4
ELO
1450.2
32
ELO · Matches
46
1464.4
Current Team ELO
1450.2
1450.2
Current Opponent ELO
1464.4
14.13
Current ELO Difference
-14.13
0.52
Expected score
0.48
32
History Matches
46
-0.05
Residual Mean
-0.06
46.63
Overperformance
46.16
0.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.20
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
1.20
2.20
Goals for per game
1.60
0.80
Goals against per game
1.60
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.60
2.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.10
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.26
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.80
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.08
Overall performance9 signals 90
32
Matches
46
1.16
PPG
0.91
31.3%
Win rate
21.7%
21.9%
Draw rate
26.1%
46.9%
Loss rate
52.2%
78.1%
Over 1.5 rate
82.6%
46.9%
Over 2.5 rate
54.3%
28.1%
Over 3.5 rate
23.9%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.43
Venue performance10 signals 100
16
Matches
24
0.88
PPG
0.92
25.0%
Win rate
20.8%
12.5%
Draw rate
29.2%
62.5%
Loss rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.26
16
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.28
Goals for per game
1.09
78.1%
Scoring rate
71.7%
59.4%
BTTS rate
65.2%
1.44
Goals for per game
1.08
75.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
62.5%
BTTS rate
70.8%
1.50
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
32
History Matches
46
1.28
Goals Mean
1.09
1.07
Goals Std
0.90
78.1%
Scored 1+ rate
71.7%
31.3%
Scored 2+ rate
28.3%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
8.7%
1.44
Venue Goals Mean
1.08
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.50
Goals against per game
1.72
78.1%
Conceding rate
89.1%
1.94
Goals against per game
1.63
81.3%
Conceding rate
91.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
32
History Matches
46
1.50
Conceded Mean
1.72
1.17
Conceded Std
1.15
43.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
21.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
21.7%
1.94
Venue Conceded Mean
1.63
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
21.9%
Clean-sheet rate
10.9%
21.9%
Failed-to-score rate
28.3%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
8.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
21.9%
Clean-sheet rate
10.9%
21.9%
Failed-to-score rate
28.3%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
8.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
21.9%
Clean-sheet rate
10.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
32
History Matches
46
0.96
Result entropy
0.93
1.56
Goal Difference Std
1.43
4.32
Stability score
7.00
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
32
Eligible Matches
46
5
Lead Matches
10
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
70.0%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.77
8
Trailing Matches
15
0.0%
Non-loss rate
13.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
32
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
0.44
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.97
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.87
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
70.96
Rest days
71.21
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
16
Normal Rest History Matches
18
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.94
15
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.93
Competition & season17 signals 170
2
Matches
3
2.00
PPG
1.67
50.0%
Win rate
33.3%
50.0%
Draw rate
66.7%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
2
Current Competition Matches
3
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.67
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.33
2
Competition Season Count
4
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.61
—
Portability PPG Range
1.48
—
Portability Score
45.05
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
32
Clean History Matches
46
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO14.13
PPG0.24
GF0.19
GA-0.22
PPG0.33
PPG-0.04
PPG1.40
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-14
Clean-sheet rate11.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate10.4%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches-14
Goals Mean0.19
Goals Std0.16
Scored 1+ rate6.4%
Scored 2+ rate3.0%
Scored 3+ rate3.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.35
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.46
History Matches-14
Conceded Mean-0.22
Conceded Std0.02
Clean-sheet rate11.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate0.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.31
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.17
History Matches-14
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.12
Stability score-2.67
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.22
Eligible Matches-14
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate10.0%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate-0.13
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-14
First Half Goals For Mean-0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.32
Second Half Goals For Mean0.34
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.17
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days-0.25
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.06
Long Rest History Matches-12
Long Rest Points Per Match0.41
Current Team ELO14.13
Current Opponent ELO-14.13
Current ELO Difference28.25
Expected score0.04
History Matches-14
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.47
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
União Leiria U23
L
Famalicão U232–0União Leiria U2327 Oct · away
Pick: Famalicão U23 52% · hit L
União Leiria U230–2Torreense U2320 Oct · home
Pick: União Leiria U23 40% · missed W
Farense U231–2União Leiria U2313 Oct · away
Pick: Farense U23 52% · missed D
União Leiria U231–1Santa Clara U236 Oct · home
Pick: Santa Clara U23 44% · missed W
União Leiria U232–0Marítimo U231 Sep · home
Pick: União Leiria U23 52% · hit Estoril U23
W
Estoril U232–1Santa Clara U2327 Oct · home
Pick: Santa Clara U23 40% · missed D
Leixões U232–2Estoril U2319 Oct · away
Pick: Leixões U23 53% · missed W
Torreense U232–3Estoril U235 Oct · away
Pick: Torreense U23 44% · missed D
Felgueiras U232–2Estoril U231 Sep · away
Pick: Estoril U23 40% · missed W
Estoril U232–1Moreirense U2325 Aug · home
Pick: Estoril U23 56% · hit Match report
União Leiria U23 and Estoril U23 finished 2–1 in Liga Revelação U23 on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 1–1 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: União Leiria U23 win 37.2%, draw 28.5%, Estoril U23 win 34.3%. All three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.