ScoreProb
Serie C - Girone A Italy Girone A - 13 2026

Union Brescia vs Arzignano Valchiampo

Union Brescia Home · Elo 1,587
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Arzignano Valchiampo Away · Elo 1,534
Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Brescia Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Union Brescia win
Union Brescia winPick
48.6%
Draw
25.9%
Arzignano Valchiampo win
25.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.7%
No53.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.2%
Under 2.555.8%

How much we know

Union Brescia history51 matches
Arzignano Valchiampo history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Union Brescia are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Union Brescia are rated 53 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,587 against 1,534. On rating alone Union Brescia would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.31 goals a game over 51 matches for Union Brescia, against 1.23 over 60 for Arzignano Valchiampo.

  • Union Brescia concede fewer

    Union Brescia concede 0.76 a game, Arzignano Valchiampo 1.18.

  • Arzignano Valchiampo games more often go over 2.5 goals

    35% of Union Brescia matches, against 50% for Arzignano Valchiampo. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Union Brescia
Arzignano Valchiampo
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1587.3
ELO
1534.2
51
ELO · Matches
60
1587.3
Current Team ELO
1534.2
1534.2
Current Opponent ELO
1587.3
53.13
Current ELO Difference
-53.13
0.58
Expected score
0.42
51
History Matches
60
0.08
Residual Mean
0.03
55.57
Overperformance
52.12
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.32
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.20
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
2.40
1.20
Goals for per game
1.50
0.90
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.08
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.83
Overall performance9 signals
90
51
Matches
60
1.78
PPG
1.50
49.0%
Win rate
43.3%
31.4%
Draw rate
20.0%
19.6%
Loss rate
36.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
65.0%
35.3%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
15.7%
Over 3.5 rate
21.7%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
30
1.92
PPG
1.43
54.2%
Win rate
43.3%
29.2%
Draw rate
13.3%
16.7%
Loss rate
43.3%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
56.7%
45.8%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
20.8%
Over 3.5 rate
23.3%
1.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
24
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.31
Goals for per game
1.23
72.5%
Scoring rate
71.7%
45.1%
BTTS rate
48.3%
1.58
Goals for per game
1.13
75.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
54.2%
BTTS rate
40.0%
3.00
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
51
History Matches
60
1.31
Goals Mean
1.23
1.13
Goals Std
1.12
72.5%
Scored 1+ rate
71.7%
39.2%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
15.7%
Scored 3+ rate
13.3%
1.58
Venue Goals Mean
1.13
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.76
Goals against per game
1.18
56.9%
Conceding rate
68.3%
0.75
Goals against per game
1.23
62.5%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
51
History Matches
60
0.76
Conceded Mean
1.18
0.85
Conceded Std
1.09
13.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.7%
3.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.3%
0.75
Venue Conceded Mean
1.23
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
43.1%
Clean-sheet rate
31.7%
27.5%
Failed-to-score rate
28.3%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
43.1%
Clean-sheet rate
31.7%
27.5%
Failed-to-score rate
28.3%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
43.1%
Clean-sheet rate
31.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
51
History Matches
60
0.94
Result entropy
0.96
1.45
Goal Difference Std
1.60
6.01
Stability score
4.23
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
60
14
Lead Matches
22
92.9%
Lead Win Rate
72.7%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.76
9
Trailing Matches
17
33.3%
Non-loss rate
35.3%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
17.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.42
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.34
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.02
Rest days
76.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
30
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.70
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.57
17
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.88
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
1.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
6
Competition Season Count
8
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.31
Portability PPG Std
0.25
0.75
Portability PPG Range
0.61
61.92
Portability Score
66.61
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
51
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO53.13
PPG0.28
GF0.08
GA-0.42
PPG2.00
PPG0.48
PPG-1.20
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate11.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate4.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches-9
Goals Mean0.08
Goals Std0.01
Scored 1+ rate0.9%
Scored 2+ rate5.9%
Scored 3+ rate2.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.45
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.05
History Matches-9
Conceded Mean-0.42
Conceded Std-0.23
Clean-sheet rate11.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.23
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.48
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.14
History Matches-9
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.15
Stability score1.78
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.90
Eligible Matches-10
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate20.1%
Lead Points Retention0.17
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate-0.02
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches-10
First Half Goals For Mean0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.36
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.06
Portability PPG Range0.14
Portability Score-4.69
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.67
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.13
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.55
Current Team ELO53.13
Current Opponent ELO-53.13
Current ELO Difference106.3
Expected score0.15
History Matches-9
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.45
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Union Brescia

W
Folgore Caratese0–4Union Brescia1 Nov · away
Pick: Folgore Caratese 40% · missed
L
Union Brescia1–2Cittadella28 Oct · home
Pick: Union Brescia 39% · missed
W
Union Brescia2–1Cittadella24 Oct · home
Pick: Union Brescia 38% · hit
L
Giana Erminio2–1Union Brescia19 Oct · away
Pick: Union Brescia 36% · missed
D
Lecco2–2Union Brescia4 Oct · away
Pick: Lecco 36% · missed

Arzignano Valchiampo

D
Lumezzane1–1Arzignano Valchiampo1 Nov · away
Pick: Arzignano Valchiampo 42% · missed
W
Arzignano Valchiampo2–0Novara25 Oct · home
Pick: Arzignano Valchiampo 50% · hit
L
Cittadella1–0Arzignano Valchiampo19 Oct · away
Pick: Cittadella 51% · hit
W
Arzignano Valchiampo1–0PRO Vercelli30 Aug · home
Pick: Arzignano Valchiampo 46% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Union Brescia and Arzignano Valchiampo meet in Serie C - Girone A on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Brescia. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Union Brescia win 48.6%, draw 25.9%, Arzignano Valchiampo win 25.5%. The pick is Union Brescia win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.2%. Both teams to score: 46.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.