ScoreProb
Liga Profesional Argentina Argentina Round 16 2026

Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield

Union Santa Fe Home · Elo 1,496
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Velez Sarsfield Away · Elo 1,560
Estadio 15 de Abril, Santa Fe de la Vera Cruz Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Velez Sarsfield win
Union Santa Fe win
27.9%
Draw
35.9%
Velez Sarsfield winPick
36.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.5%
No54.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.539.7%
Under 2.560.3%

How much we know

Union Santa Fe history59 matches
Velez Sarsfield history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.2%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Velez Sarsfield are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Velez Sarsfield are rated 64 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,560 against 1,496. On rating alone Velez Sarsfield would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Velez Sarsfield score more

    0.97 goals a game over 59 matches for Union Santa Fe, against 1.11 over 56 for Velez Sarsfield.

  • Velez Sarsfield concede fewer

    Union Santa Fe concede 1.02 a game, Velez Sarsfield 0.82.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    36% of Union Santa Fe matches, against 30% for Velez Sarsfield. The model puts this match at 40% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Union Santa Fe
Velez Sarsfield
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1495.9
ELO
1559.5
59
ELO · Matches
56
1495.9
Current Team ELO
1559.5
1559.5
Current Opponent ELO
1495.9
-63.61
Current ELO Difference
63.61
0.41
Expected score
0.59
59
History Matches
56
0.00
Residual Mean
0.06
49.96
Overperformance
54.69
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.80
1.20
Goals for per game
1.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.90
1.10
Goals for per game
1.40
1.50
Goals against per game
0.80
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.80
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.92
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
56
1.20
PPG
1.50
28.8%
Win rate
41.1%
33.9%
Draw rate
26.8%
37.3%
Loss rate
32.1%
61.0%
Over 1.5 rate
58.9%
35.6%
Over 2.5 rate
30.4%
18.6%
Over 3.5 rate
12.5%
1.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
25
1.40
PPG
1.24
33.3%
Win rate
28.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
26.7%
Loss rate
32.0%
53.3%
Over 1.5 rate
68.0%
23.3%
Over 2.5 rate
32.0%
10.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.42
30
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.97
Goals for per game
1.11
57.6%
Scoring rate
62.5%
40.7%
BTTS rate
33.9%
0.93
Goals for per game
1.08
63.3%
Scoring rate
60.0%
36.7%
BTTS rate
40.0%
1.24
Goals for per game
1.33
66.7%
Scoring rate
88.9%
52.4%
BTTS rate
55.6%
59
History Matches
56
0.97
Goals Mean
1.11
1.09
Goals Std
1.08
57.6%
Scored 1+ rate
62.5%
23.7%
Scored 2+ rate
35.7%
11.9%
Scored 3+ rate
8.9%
0.93
Venue Goals Mean
1.08
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.02
Goals against per game
0.82
64.4%
Conceding rate
58.9%
0.73
Goals against per game
0.96
53.3%
Conceding rate
60.0%
1.14
Goals against per game
0.89
76.2%
Conceding rate
66.7%
59
History Matches
56
1.02
Conceded Mean
0.82
0.89
Conceded Std
0.80
33.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
21.4%
3.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
1.8%
0.73
Venue Conceded Mean
0.96
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
35.6%
Clean-sheet rate
41.1%
42.4%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
46.7%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
36.7%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
23.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
35.6%
Clean-sheet rate
41.1%
42.4%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
46.7%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
36.7%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
35.6%
Clean-sheet rate
41.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
56
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.42
Goal Difference Std
1.41
0.50
Stability score
1.41
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
56
14
Lead Matches
16
78.6%
Lead Win Rate
68.8%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.75
16
Trailing Matches
13
31.3%
Non-loss rate
23.1%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.42
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
0.54
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
79.15
Rest days
76.95
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
30
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.10
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.77
25
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.40
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.26
Competition & season17 signals
170
21
Matches
18
1.29
PPG
1.83
33.3%
Win rate
50.0%
28.6%
Draw rate
33.3%
38.1%
Loss rate
16.7%
76.2%
Over 1.5 rate
61.1%
47.6%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
23.8%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.90
21
Current Competition Matches
18
1.29
Current Competition PPG
1.83
0.10
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.44
6
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.29
Portability PPG Std
0.29
0.62
Portability PPG Range
0.71
63.63
Portability Score
63.34
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-63.61
PPG-0.30
GF-0.14
GA0.20
PPG-0.55
PPG0.16
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate4.9%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate6.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches3
Goals Mean-0.14
Goals Std0.01
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.12
Scored 3+ rate2.9%
Venue Goals Mean-0.15
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.24
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.20
Conceded Std0.09
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate12.5%
Conceded 3+ rate1.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.23
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.25
History Matches3
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.01
Stability score-0.91
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.44
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate9.8%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate8.2%
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Current Competition Matches3
Current Competition PPG-0.55
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.35
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range-0.09
Portability Score0.29
Rest days2.20
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.67
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.14
Current Team ELO-63.61
Current Opponent ELO63.61
Current ELO Difference-127.2
Expected score-0.18
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.74
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Union Santa Fe

D
Newells Old Boys1–1Union Santa Fe1 Nov · away
Pick: Union Santa Fe 40% · missed
W
Union Santa Fe3–1Estudiantes L.P.26 Oct · home
Pick: Estudiantes L.P. 41% · missed
D
Deportivo Riestra1–1Union Santa Fe20 Oct · away
Pick: Deportivo Riestra 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Velez Sarsfield

D
Velez Sarsfield2–2San Lorenzo31 Oct · home
Pick: Velez Sarsfield 48% · missed
W
Central Cordoba de Santiago0–5Velez Sarsfield26 Oct · away
Pick: Velez Sarsfield 38% · hit
L
Lanus2–0Velez Sarsfield12 Oct · away
Pick: Lanus 37% · hit
D
Velez Sarsfield2–2Platense5 Oct · home
Pick: Velez Sarsfield 51% · missed
D
Deportivo Riestra1–1Velez Sarsfield29 Aug · away
Pick: Deportivo Riestra 36% · missed

About this match

Union Santa Fe and Velez Sarsfield meet in Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio 15 de Abril, Santa Fe de la Vera Cruz. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Union Santa Fe win 27.9%, draw 35.9%, Velez Sarsfield win 36.2%. The pick is Velez Sarsfield win. Over 2.5 goals: 39.7%. Both teams to score: 45.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.