US Rumelange vs Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Match result probability Model pick: Racing FC Union Luxembourg win
US Rumelange win
29.2%
Draw
31.4%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg winPick
39.4%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes56.6%
No43.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.562.7%
Under 2.537.3%
How much we know
US Rumelange history6 matches
Racing FC Union Luxembourg history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.4%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.
Why Racing FC Union Luxembourg are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,512 against 1,529. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
US Rumelange score more
1.83 goals a game over 6 matches for US Rumelange, against 1.62 over 60 for Racing FC Union Luxembourg.
-
Racing FC Union Luxembourg concede fewer
US Rumelange concede 1.83 a game, Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1.32.
-
US Rumelange games more often go over 2.5 goals
67% of US Rumelange matches, against 53% for Racing FC Union Luxembourg. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Racing FC Union Luxembourg@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1512.2
ELO
1529.2
6
ELO · Matches
60
1512.2
Current Team ELO
1529.2
1529.2
Current Opponent ELO
1512.2
-17.04
Current ELO Difference
17.04
0.48
Expected score
0.52
6
History Matches
60
0.10
Residual Mean
0.02
52.39
Overperformance
51.66
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.00
1.80
Goals for per game
2.20
1.80
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
6
Matches
10
1.67
PPG
1.90
1.83
Goals for per game
2.40
1.83
Goals against per game
1.10
50.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.83
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
1.07
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.11
1.83
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.14
0.92
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.15
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.57
Overall performance9 signals 90
6
Matches
60
1.67
PPG
1.45
50.0%
Win rate
41.7%
16.7%
Draw rate
20.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
38.3%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
73.3%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
53.3%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
38.3%
1.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.07
Venue performance10 signals 100
3
Matches
31
2.33
PPG
1.42
66.7%
Win rate
41.9%
33.3%
Draw rate
16.1%
0.0%
Loss rate
41.9%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
64.5%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
51.6%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
32.3%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
3
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.83
Goals for per game
1.62
83.3%
Scoring rate
73.3%
66.7%
BTTS rate
51.7%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.45
100.0%
Scoring rate
67.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
45.2%
6
History Matches
60
1.83
Goals Mean
1.62
1.07
Goals Std
1.56
83.3%
Scored 1+ rate
73.3%
66.7%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
33.3%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.45
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.83
Goals against per game
1.32
83.3%
Conceding rate
71.7%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.29
66.7%
Conceding rate
71.0%
6
History Matches
60
1.83
Conceded Mean
1.32
0.90
Conceded Std
1.20
83.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.7%
16.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.7%
1.33
Venue Conceded Mean
1.29
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
32.3%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
32.3%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
6
History Matches
60
0.92
Result entropy
0.96
1.15
Goal Difference Std
2.07
7.94
Stability score
4.04
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
4
Eligible Matches
60
3
Lead Matches
19
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
78.9%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.84
0
Trailing Matches
14
—
Non-loss rate
14.3%
—
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
4
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.75
First Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.87
1.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
3
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.62
2
Long Rest History Matches
20
3.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.20
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
7
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
—
Portability PPG Std
0.36
—
Portability PPG Range
0.92
—
Portability Score
58.02
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
6
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-17.04
PPG0.22
GF0.22
GA0.52
PPG0.91
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.23
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-54
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-28
Clean-sheet rate4.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.32
History Matches-54
Goals Mean0.22
Goals Std-0.49
Scored 1+ rate10.0%
Scored 2+ rate26.7%
Scored 3+ rate8.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.55
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.57
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.04
History Matches-54
Conceded Mean0.52
Conceded Std-0.31
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Conceded 2+ rate46.7%
Conceded 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.04
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.73
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.24
History Matches-54
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.91
Stability score3.90
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.42
Eligible Matches-56
Lead Matches-16
Lead Win Rate-0.12
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches-14
Halftime Coverage Matches-56
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.57
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.75
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-5
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-36
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.62
Long Rest History Matches-18
Long Rest Points Per Match1.80
Current Team ELO-17.04
Current Opponent ELO17.04
Current ELO Difference-34.09
Expected score-0.05
History Matches-54
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance0.74
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
US Rumelange
W
US Rumelange2–1Racing FC Union Luxembourg31 Oct · home
Pick: Racing FC Union Luxembourg 45% · missed D
Wiltz3–3US Rumelange25 Oct · away
Pick: Wiltz 51% · missed D
Résidence Walferdange3–3US Rumelange18 Oct · away
Pick: Résidence Walferdange 46% · missed L
US Rumelange2–5AS Jeunesse Esch30 Aug · home
Pick: US Rumelange 51% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
L
US Rumelange2–1Racing FC Union Luxembourg31 Oct · away
Pick: Racing FC Union Luxembourg 45% · missed W
Racing FC Union Luxembourg6–0US Mondorf-les-bains25 Oct · home
Pick: Racing FC Union Luxembourg 52% · hit D
UNA Strassen1–1Racing FC Union Luxembourg18 Oct · away
Pick: UNA Strassen 55% · missed D
Racing FC Union Luxembourg2–2Victoria Rosport30 Aug · home
Pick: Racing FC Union Luxembourg 62% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
US Rumelange and Racing FC Union Luxembourg meet in Cup on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: US Rumelange win 29.2%, draw 31.4%, Racing FC Union Luxembourg win 39.4%. The pick is Racing FC Union Luxembourg win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.7%. Both teams to score: 56.6%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.