ScoreProb
Eredivisie Netherlands Round 12 2026

Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen

Utrecht Home · Elo 1,499
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
NEC Nijmegen Away · Elo 1,569
Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: NEC Nijmegen win
Utrecht win
37.3%
Draw
20.5%
NEC Nijmegen winPick
42.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.0%
No42.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.6%
Under 2.538.4%

How much we know

Utrecht history75 matches
NEC Nijmegen history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why NEC Nijmegen are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • NEC Nijmegen are rated 70 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,569 against 1,499. On rating alone NEC Nijmegen would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • NEC Nijmegen score more

    1.49 goals a game over 75 matches for Utrecht, against 2.03 over 72 for NEC Nijmegen.

  • Utrecht concede fewer

    Utrecht concede 1.32 a game, NEC Nijmegen 1.53.

  • NEC Nijmegen games more often go over 2.5 goals

    51% of Utrecht matches, against 72% for NEC Nijmegen. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Utrecht
NEC Nijmegen
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1499.2
ELO
1568.8
75
ELO · Matches
72
1499.2
Current Team ELO
1568.8
1568.8
Current Opponent ELO
1499.2
-69.67
Current ELO Difference
69.67
0.40
Expected score
0.60
75
History Matches
72
0.00
Residual Mean
0.04
50.11
Overperformance
53.39
-0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
0.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
2.20
Goals against per game
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.10
1.10
Goals for per game
1.80
1.70
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.14
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.14
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.76
Overall performance9 signals
90
75
Matches
72
1.35
PPG
1.61
37.3%
Win rate
44.4%
22.7%
Draw rate
27.8%
40.0%
Loss rate
27.8%
78.7%
Over 1.5 rate
90.3%
50.7%
Over 2.5 rate
72.2%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
48.6%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
Venue performance10 signals
100
38
Matches
37
1.50
PPG
1.57
44.7%
Win rate
43.2%
15.8%
Draw rate
27.0%
39.5%
Loss rate
29.7%
73.7%
Over 1.5 rate
86.5%
44.7%
Over 2.5 rate
64.9%
26.3%
Over 3.5 rate
43.2%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
38
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.49
Goals for per game
2.03
73.3%
Scoring rate
88.9%
54.7%
BTTS rate
73.6%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.78
73.7%
Scoring rate
81.1%
50.0%
BTTS rate
70.3%
1.67
Goals for per game
2.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
75
History Matches
72
1.49
Goals Mean
2.03
1.24
Goals Std
1.30
73.3%
Scored 1+ rate
88.9%
46.7%
Scored 2+ rate
63.9%
21.3%
Scored 3+ rate
34.7%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.78
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.32
Goals against per game
1.53
76.0%
Conceding rate
81.9%
1.05
Goals against per game
1.51
73.7%
Conceding rate
83.8%
3.00
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
75
History Matches
72
1.32
Conceded Mean
1.53
1.12
Conceded Std
1.14
37.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.4%
10.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.8%
1.05
Venue Conceded Mean
1.51
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.1%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.2%
26.3%
Failed-to-score rate
18.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.1%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.2%
26.3%
Failed-to-score rate
18.9%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
75
History Matches
72
0.97
Result entropy
0.98
1.73
Goal Difference Std
1.80
2.53
Stability score
2.42
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
75
Eligible Matches
72
24
Lead Matches
22
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
90.9%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.92
25
Trailing Matches
25
20.0%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
12.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
75
Halftime Coverage Matches
72
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
0.91
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.31
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.75
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.09
Rest days
75.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
14
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.43
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.80
38
Normal Rest History Matches
40
1.24
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.70
22
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.46
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
2
0.33
PPG
1.50
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
66.7%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
3
Current Competition Matches
2
0.33
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
8
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.67
Portability PPG Std
0.86
1.64
Portability PPG Range
2.50
42.79
Portability Score
36.84
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
75
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-69.67
PPG-0.26
GF-0.53
GA-0.21
PPG-1.17
PPG-0.07
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate5.9%
Failed-to-score rate15.6%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate10.1%
Failed-to-score rate7.4%
History Matches3
Goals Mean-0.53
Goals Std-0.06
Scored 1+ rate-0.16
Scored 2+ rate-0.17
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean-0.28
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.00
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.21
Conceded Std-0.02
Clean-sheet rate5.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.17
History Matches3
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.06
Stability score0.11
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.41
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.16
Lead Points Retention-0.15
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.20
Trailing Win Rate8.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.40
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-1.17
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.33
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.19
Portability PPG Range-0.86
Portability Score5.95
Rest days3.09
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches9
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.37
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.46
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.04
Current Team ELO-69.67
Current Opponent ELO69.67
Current ELO Difference-139.3
Expected score-0.20
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-3.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Utrecht

L
Telstar4–2Utrecht1 Nov · away
Pick: Telstar 43% · hit
W
Kozakken Boys0–1Utrecht29 Oct · away
Pick: Utrecht 44% · hit
D
Utrecht1–1PEC Zwolle24 Oct · home
Pick: Utrecht 48% · missed
W
Twente1–2Utrecht18 Oct · away
Pick: Twente 57% · missed
L
Utrecht1–6PSV Eindhoven30 Aug · home
Pick: PSV Eindhoven 61% · hit

NEC Nijmegen

L
Heerenveen1–0NEC Nijmegen31 Oct · away
Pick: NEC Nijmegen 42% · missed
D
NEC Nijmegen2–2Groningen25 Oct · home
Pick: NEC Nijmegen 64% · missed
W
Dinamo Zagreb2–4NEC Nijmegen22 Oct · away
Pick: Dinamo Zagreb 64% · missed
D
NEC Nijmegen2–2Fortuna Sittard18 Oct · home
Pick: NEC Nijmegen 62% · missed
D
NEC Nijmegen1–1Levski Sofia15 Oct · home
Pick: Levski Sofia 51% · missed

About this match

Utrecht and NEC Nijmegen meet in Eredivisie on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Utrecht win 37.3%, draw 20.5%, NEC Nijmegen win 42.1%. The pick is NEC Nijmegen win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.6%. Both teams to score: 58.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.