ScoreProb
Thai League 2 Thailand Round 10 2026

Uttaradit vs Police Tero

Uttaradit Home · Elo 1,493
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Police Tero Away · Elo 1,504
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Police Tero win
Uttaradit win
26.3%
Draw
35.1%
Police Tero winPick
38.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.9%
No48.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.5%
Under 2.551.5%

How much we know

Uttaradit history4 matches
Police Tero history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 11:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Police Tero are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,493 against 1,504. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Police Tero score far more

    0.50 goals a game over 4 matches for Uttaradit, against 1.42 over 50 for Police Tero.

  • Police Tero concede fewer

    Uttaradit concede 1.75 a game, Police Tero 1.32.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    50% of Uttaradit matches, against 54% for Police Tero. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 9 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Uttaradit
Police Tero
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1493.4
ELO
1504.3
4
ELO · Matches
50
1493.4
Current Team ELO
1504.3
1504.3
Current Opponent ELO
1493.4
-10.98
Current ELO Difference
10.98
0.48
Expected score
0.52
4
History Matches
50
-0.08
Residual Mean
0.00
48.63
Overperformance
49.90
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
4
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.40
0.50
Goals for per game
1.60
1.75
Goals against per game
1.60
25.0%
Win rate
40.0%
4
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.20
0.50
Goals for per game
1.40
1.75
Goals against per game
1.70
25.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.75
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.79
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.62
0.95
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.42
Overall performance9 signals
90
4
Matches
50
1.00
PPG
1.54
25.0%
Win rate
44.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
22.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
34.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
74.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
54.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
24.0%
2.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
Venue performance10 signals
100
2
Matches
26
0.50
PPG
0.88
0.0%
Win rate
23.1%
50.0%
Draw rate
19.2%
50.0%
Loss rate
57.7%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
76.9%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
57.7%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
30.8%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
2
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.50
Goals for per game
1.42
25.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
0.00
Goals for per game
1.15
0.0%
Scoring rate
73.1%
0.0%
BTTS rate
61.5%
4
History Matches
50
0.50
Goals Mean
1.42
0.87
Goals Std
1.12
25.0%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
25.0%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
16.0%
0.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.15
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.75
Goals against per game
1.32
50.0%
Conceding rate
74.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.81
50.0%
Conceding rate
84.6%
4
History Matches
50
1.75
Conceded Mean
1.32
1.79
Conceded Std
1.26
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.0%
50.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.0%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.81
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.0%
75.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.9%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.0%
75.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.9%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
4
History Matches
50
0.95
Result entropy
0.97
2.38
Goal Difference Std
1.58
5.36
Stability score
3.41
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
4
Eligible Matches
50
0
Lead Matches
17
—
Lead Win Rate
70.6%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.76
2
Trailing Matches
12
0.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
4
Halftime Coverage Matches
50
0.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
1.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
297.0
Rest days
182.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
7
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
1
Normal Rest History Matches
17
0.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.29
2
Long Rest History Matches
25
0.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.92
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
3
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.01
—
Portability PPG Range
0.02
—
Portability Score
98.32
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
4
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-10.98
PPG-0.54
GF-0.92
GA0.43
PPG-0.38
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-46
Clean-sheet rate24.0%
Failed-to-score rate55.0%
History Matches-24
Clean-sheet rate34.6%
Failed-to-score rate73.1%
History Matches-46
Goals Mean-0.92
Goals Std-0.25
Scored 1+ rate-0.55
Scored 2+ rate-0.15
Scored 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Goals Mean-1.15
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.15
History Matches-46
Conceded Mean0.43
Conceded Std0.53
Clean-sheet rate24.0%
Conceded 2+ rate18.0%
Conceded 3+ rate34.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.19
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.05
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.17
History Matches-46
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.81
Stability score1.95
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.97
Eligible Matches-46
Lead Matches-17
Trailing Matches-10
Non-loss rate-0.33
Trailing Win Rate-0.17
Halftime Coverage Matches-46
First Half Goals For Mean-0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean0.54
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.36
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days115.0
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest History Matches-16
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.29
Long Rest History Matches-23
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.42
Current Team ELO-10.98
Current Opponent ELO10.98
Current ELO Difference-21.96
Expected score-0.03
History Matches-46
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-1.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Uttaradit

D
Chiangmai United1–1Uttaradit1 Nov · away
Pick: Chiangmai United 66% · missed
W
Uttaradit2–0Nakhon Pathom24 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 38% · missed
L
Chainat3–2Uttaradit18 Oct · away
Pick: Chainat 70% · hit
D
Uttaradit1–1Satun15 Oct · home
Pick: Uttaradit 53% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Police Tero

L
Police Tero0–6Nong Bua Pitchaya1 Nov · home
Pick: Nong Bua Pitchaya 37% · hit
L
Muangthong United4–1Police Tero26 Oct · away
Pick: Muangthong United 46% · hit
W
Police Tero4–1Surin21 Oct · home
Pick: Police Tero 63% · hit
W
Police Tero5–3Kasetsart FC17 Oct · home
Pick: Police Tero 46% · hit
L
Kanchanaburi1–0Police Tero13 Oct · away
Pick: Kanchanaburi 41% · hit

About this match

Uttaradit and Police Tero meet in Thai League 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 11:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Uttaradit win 26.3%, draw 35.1%, Police Tero win 38.6%. The pick is Police Tero win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.5%. Both teams to score: 51.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.