ScoreProb
Thai League 2 Thailand Round 10 2026

Chanthaburi vs Phrae United

Chanthaburi Home · Elo 1,452
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Phrae United Away · Elo 1,478
Chanthaburi Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Chanthaburi win
Chanthaburi winPick
39.6%
Draw
22.8%
Phrae United win
37.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.6%
No44.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.8%
Under 2.544.2%

How much we know

Chanthaburi history49 matches
Phrae United history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Chanthaburi are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Phrae United are rated 26 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,478 against 1,452. On rating alone Phrae United would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Phrae United score more

    1.24 goals a game over 49 matches for Chanthaburi, against 1.45 over 53 for Phrae United.

  • Chanthaburi concede fewer

    Chanthaburi concede 1.37 a game, Phrae United 1.55.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    53% of Chanthaburi matches, against 60% for Phrae United. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Chanthaburi
Phrae United
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1452.1
ELO
1478.5
49
ELO · Matches
53
1452.1
Current Team ELO
1478.5
1478.5
Current Opponent ELO
1452.1
-26.38
Current ELO Difference
26.38
0.46
Expected score
0.54
49
History Matches
53
-0.04
Residual Mean
-0.02
47.21
Overperformance
48.34
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
0.60
0.80
Goals for per game
0.60
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.10
1.30
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.11
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
53
1.20
PPG
1.34
30.6%
Win rate
32.1%
28.6%
Draw rate
37.7%
40.8%
Loss rate
30.2%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
71.7%
53.1%
Over 2.5 rate
60.4%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
45.3%
1.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
27
1.56
PPG
1.07
44.4%
Win rate
22.2%
22.2%
Draw rate
40.7%
33.3%
Loss rate
37.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
81.5%
55.6%
Over 2.5 rate
70.4%
29.6%
Over 3.5 rate
59.3%
1.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
27
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.24
Goals for per game
1.45
79.6%
Scoring rate
75.5%
59.2%
BTTS rate
64.2%
1.37
Goals for per game
1.48
92.6%
Scoring rate
85.2%
59.3%
BTTS rate
77.8%
49
History Matches
53
1.24
Goals Mean
1.45
0.92
Goals Std
1.28
79.6%
Scored 1+ rate
75.5%
34.7%
Scored 2+ rate
43.4%
8.2%
Scored 3+ rate
15.1%
1.37
Venue Goals Mean
1.48
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.37
Goals against per game
1.55
75.5%
Conceding rate
77.4%
1.19
Goals against per game
2.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
85.2%
49
History Matches
53
1.37
Conceded Mean
1.55
1.06
Conceded Std
1.42
46.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.3%
10.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.1%
1.19
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
24.5%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
20.4%
Failed-to-score rate
24.5%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
14.8%
7.4%
Failed-to-score rate
14.8%
24.5%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
20.4%
Failed-to-score rate
24.5%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
14.8%
7.4%
Failed-to-score rate
14.8%
24.5%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
53
0.99
Result entropy
1.00
1.33
Goal Difference Std
1.91
1.14
Stability score
0.42
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
53
16
Lead Matches
17
62.5%
Lead Win Rate
47.1%
0.71
Lead Points Retention
0.63
13
Trailing Matches
12
23.1%
Non-loss rate
8.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.94
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
196.0
Rest days
196.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
5
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
27
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.15
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
17
Long Rest History Matches
19
0.88
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.11
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.06
Portability PPG Std
0.32
0.16
Portability PPG Range
0.74
88.64
Portability Score
60.70
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-26.38
PPG-0.14
GF-0.21
GA-0.18
PPG0.48
PPG0.00
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate1.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate18.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-4
Goals Mean-0.21
Goals Std-0.37
Scored 1+ rate4.1%
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.10
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean-0.18
Conceded Std-0.36
Clean-sheet rate1.8%
Conceded 2+ rate1.7%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.81
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.33
History Matches-4
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.57
Stability score0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.19
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate15.4%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate14.7%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.26
Portability PPG Range-0.58
Portability Score27.94
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match2.00
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.35
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.22
Current Team ELO-26.38
Current Opponent ELO26.38
Current ELO Difference-52.75
Expected score-0.08
History Matches-4
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Chanthaburi

L
Mahasarakham United1–0Chanthaburi30 Oct · away
Pick: Mahasarakham United 41% · hit
D
Chanthaburi0–0Chiangmai United25 Oct · home
Pick: Chanthaburi 41% · missed
W
Kasetsart FC1–3Chanthaburi21 Oct · away
Pick: Chanthaburi 37% · hit
D
Satun0–0Chanthaburi18 Oct · away
Pick: Chanthaburi 35% · missed
W
Chanthaburi3–0Nakhon Pathom14 Oct · home
Pick: Chanthaburi 34% · hit

Phrae United

L
Phrae United0–3Khon Kaen United31 Oct · home
Pick: Phrae United 42% · missed
D
Songkhla1–1Phrae United24 Oct · away
Pick: Phrae United 40% · missed
L
Phrae United0–1Nakhon Ratchasima FC17 Oct · home
Pick: Phrae United 45% · missed
W
Muangthong United0–1Phrae United13 Oct · away
Pick: Muangthong United 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Chanthaburi and Phrae United meet in Thai League 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Chanthaburi Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Chanthaburi win 39.6%, draw 22.8%, Phrae United win 37.6%. The pick is Chanthaburi win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.8%. Both teams to score: 55.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.