ScoreProb
1. Lig Türkiye Round 14 2026

Vanspor FK vs Sivasspor

Vanspor FK Home · Elo 1,483
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sivasspor Away · Elo 1,482
Spor Toto Akhisar Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Vanspor FK win
Vanspor FK winPick
37.8%
Draw
25.5%
Sivasspor win
36.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.9%
No45.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.0%
Under 2.547.0%

How much we know

Vanspor FK history64 matches
Sivasspor history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 10:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Vanspor FK are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,483 against 1,482. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Vanspor FK score more

    1.52 goals a game over 64 matches for Vanspor FK, against 1.15 over 62 for Sivasspor.

  • Defences are close

    Vanspor FK concede 1.28 a game, Sivasspor 1.27.

  • Vanspor FK games more often go over 2.5 goals

    53% of Vanspor FK matches, against 40% for Sivasspor. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Vanspor FK
Sivasspor
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1482.8
ELO
1482.4
64
ELO · Matches
62
1482.8
Current Team ELO
1482.4
1482.4
Current Opponent ELO
1482.8
0.41
Current ELO Difference
-0.41
0.50
Expected score
0.50
64
History Matches
62
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.01
49.11
Overperformance
49.06
-0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
2.80
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.10
1.40
Goals for per game
1.00
2.00
Goals against per game
1.60
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.77
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.18
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
62
1.42
PPG
1.16
37.5%
Win rate
29.0%
29.7%
Draw rate
29.0%
32.8%
Loss rate
41.9%
71.9%
Over 1.5 rate
67.7%
53.1%
Over 2.5 rate
40.3%
35.9%
Over 3.5 rate
27.4%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.55
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
31
1.73
PPG
0.87
48.5%
Win rate
22.6%
27.3%
Draw rate
19.4%
24.2%
Loss rate
58.1%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
64.5%
48.5%
Over 2.5 rate
41.9%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
19.4%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.24
33
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.52
Goals for per game
1.15
68.8%
Scoring rate
67.7%
54.7%
BTTS rate
53.2%
1.61
Goals for per game
0.87
72.7%
Scoring rate
61.3%
45.5%
BTTS rate
51.6%
1.33
Goals for per game
0.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
33.3%
66.7%
BTTS rate
33.3%
64
History Matches
62
1.52
Goals Mean
1.15
1.46
Goals Std
1.18
68.8%
Scored 1+ rate
67.7%
39.1%
Scored 2+ rate
27.4%
29.7%
Scored 3+ rate
11.3%
1.61
Venue Goals Mean
0.87
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.28
Goals against per game
1.27
73.4%
Conceding rate
74.2%
0.94
Goals against per game
1.42
63.6%
Conceding rate
80.6%
2.67
Goals against per game
1.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
64
History Matches
62
1.28
Conceded Mean
1.27
1.15
Conceded Std
1.08
35.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.9%
12.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.1%
0.94
Venue Conceded Mean
1.42
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
32.3%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
38.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
26.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
32.3%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
38.7%
26.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
62
1.00
Result entropy
0.99
1.83
Goal Difference Std
1.55
0.42
Stability score
1.46
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
62
16
Lead Matches
15
68.8%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.71
17
Trailing Matches
20
35.3%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
11.8%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
0.98
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.67
Rest days
74.67
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
47
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.36
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.39
15
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.53
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.86
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
0.67
33.3%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
66.7%
66.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.94
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.67
-1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.67
4
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.33
Portability PPG Std
0.32
0.81
Portability PPG Range
0.68
59.89
Portability Score
61.27
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO0.41
PPG0.26
GF0.37
GA0.01
PPG0.33
PPG0.86
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate0.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate17.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.37
Goals Std0.28
Scored 1+ rate1.0%
Scored 2+ rate11.6%
Scored 3+ rate18.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.74
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std1.03
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.01
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate0.8%
Conceded 2+ rate2.1%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.48
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.07
History Matches2
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.28
Stability score-1.04
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.05
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate8.8%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate15.3%
Trailing Win Rate1.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean0.37
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.67
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.02
Portability PPG Range0.13
Portability Score-1.38
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.50
Normal Rest History Matches9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.03
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.68
Current Team ELO0.41
Current Opponent ELO-0.41
Current ELO Difference0.82
Expected score0.00
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Vanspor FK

W
Vanspor FK1–0Sarıyer31 Oct · home
Pick: Sarıyer 45% · missed
L
Orduspor 19672–0Vanspor FK27 Oct · away
Pick: Vanspor FK 44% · missed
W
Boluspor0–3Vanspor FK23 Oct · away
Pick: Boluspor 40% · missed
L
Vanspor FK0–2Ümraniyespor18 Oct · home
Pick: Vanspor FK 41% · missed
W
Pendikspor1–2Vanspor FK13 Oct · away
Pick: Pendikspor 50% · missed

Sivasspor

L
Sivasspor1–2Boluspor1 Nov · home
Pick: Sivasspor 49% · missed
L
Ümraniyespor4–0Sivasspor24 Oct · away
Pick: Ümraniyespor 44% · hit
D
Sivasspor1–1Sarıyer17 Oct · home
Pick: Sarıyer 36% · missed
D
Bandırmaspor1–1Sivasspor13 Oct · away
Pick: Bandırmaspor 58% · missed
L
Batman Petrolspor2–1Sivasspor29 Aug · away
Pick: Batman Petrolspor 66% · hit

About this match

Vanspor FK and Sivasspor meet in 1. Lig on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 10:30 UTC. The match is played at Spor Toto Akhisar Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Vanspor FK win 37.8%, draw 25.5%, Sivasspor win 36.7%. The pick is Vanspor FK win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.0%. Both teams to score: 54.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.