ScoreProb
2. Bundesliga Germany Round 11 2026

VfL Osnabrück vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern

VfL Osnabrück Home · Elo 1,608
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
1. FC Kaiserslautern Away · Elo 1,532
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: 1. FC Kaiserslautern win
VfL Osnabrück win
37.7%
Draw
24.5%
1. FC Kaiserslautern winPick
37.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.8%
No47.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.9%
Under 2.545.1%

How much we know

VfL Osnabrück history68 matches
1. FC Kaiserslautern history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why 1. FC Kaiserslautern are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • VfL Osnabrück are rated 77 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,608 against 1,532. On rating alone VfL Osnabrück would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • VfL Osnabrück score more

    1.72 goals a game over 68 matches for VfL Osnabrück, against 1.52 over 61 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern.

  • VfL Osnabrück concede fewer

    VfL Osnabrück concede 1.10 a game, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.44.

  • 1. FC Kaiserslautern games more often go over 2.5 goals

    47% of VfL Osnabrück matches, against 59% for 1. FC Kaiserslautern. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
VfL Osnabrück
1. FC Kaiserslautern
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1608.4
ELO
1531.6
68
ELO · Matches
61
1608.4
Current Team ELO
1531.6
1531.6
Current Opponent ELO
1608.4
76.84
Current ELO Difference
-76.84
0.61
Expected score
0.39
68
History Matches
61
0.08
Residual Mean
0.02
56.02
Overperformance
51.34
-0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.40
3.00
Goals for per game
0.60
2.40
Goals against per game
0.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.60
2.50
Goals for per game
1.20
2.00
Goals against per game
0.90
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
2.25
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.60
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.18
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.37
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.49
Overall performance9 signals
90
68
Matches
61
1.85
PPG
1.51
55.9%
Win rate
44.3%
17.6%
Draw rate
18.0%
26.5%
Loss rate
37.7%
67.6%
Over 1.5 rate
73.8%
47.1%
Over 2.5 rate
59.0%
32.4%
Over 3.5 rate
37.7%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.13
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
33
1.62
PPG
1.12
47.1%
Win rate
30.3%
20.6%
Draw rate
21.2%
32.4%
Loss rate
48.5%
61.8%
Over 1.5 rate
69.7%
32.4%
Over 2.5 rate
54.5%
17.6%
Over 3.5 rate
39.4%
1.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.32
34
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.72
Goals for per game
1.52
75.0%
Scoring rate
67.2%
44.1%
BTTS rate
47.5%
1.24
Goals for per game
1.24
61.8%
Scoring rate
54.5%
26.5%
BTTS rate
36.4%
1.50
Goals for per game
0.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
68
History Matches
61
1.72
Goals Mean
1.52
1.58
Goals Std
1.50
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
67.2%
47.1%
Scored 2+ rate
42.6%
25.0%
Scored 3+ rate
29.5%
1.24
Venue Goals Mean
1.24
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.10
Goals against per game
1.44
63.2%
Conceding rate
70.5%
0.91
Goals against per game
1.82
55.9%
Conceding rate
69.7%
3.50
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
68
History Matches
61
1.10
Conceded Mean
1.44
1.14
Conceded Std
1.37
27.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.0%
14.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.7%
0.91
Venue Conceded Mean
1.82
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.5%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
32.8%
44.1%
Clean-sheet rate
30.3%
38.2%
Failed-to-score rate
45.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.5%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
32.8%
44.1%
Clean-sheet rate
30.3%
38.2%
Failed-to-score rate
45.5%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
68
History Matches
61
0.89
Result entropy
0.94
1.88
Goal Difference Std
2.13
10.51
Stability score
5.57
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
67
Eligible Matches
60
23
Lead Matches
19
91.3%
Lead Win Rate
89.5%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.93
19
Trailing Matches
16
31.6%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
21.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
67
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.76
First Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
0.99
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.54
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
80.79
Rest days
77.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
0
2.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
36
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.78
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.15
25
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.76
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.89
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
5
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.23
Portability PPG Std
0.27
0.61
Portability PPG Range
0.60
68.51
Portability Score
64.81
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
68
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO76.84
PPG0.34
GF0.20
GA-0.34
PPG-1.00
PPG0.50
PPG-0.20
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate7.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate13.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches7
Goals Mean0.20
Goals Std0.08
Scored 1+ rate7.8%
Scored 2+ rate4.4%
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean-0.01
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.65
History Matches7
Conceded Mean-0.34
Conceded Std-0.23
Clean-sheet rate7.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.13
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.91
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.19
History Matches7
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.25
Stability score4.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.13
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate1.8%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate31.6%
Trailing Win Rate21.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.25
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.04
Portability PPG Range0.01
Portability Score3.71
Rest days2.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.63
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.13
Current Team ELO76.84
Current Opponent ELO-76.84
Current ELO Difference153.7
Expected score0.22
History Matches7
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.69
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

VfL Osnabrück

L
VfL Wolfsburg2–0VfL Osnabrück31 Oct · away
Pick: VfL Wolfsburg 50% · hit
W
VfL Osnabrück3–0SpVgg Greuther Fürth25 Oct · home
Pick: VfL Osnabrück 40% · hit
L
Arminia Bielefeld2–1VfL Osnabrück18 Oct · away
Pick: Arminia Bielefeld 56% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

1. FC Kaiserslautern

L
1. FC Kaiserslautern0–3Hertha BSC31 Oct · home
Pick: Hertha BSC 50% · hit
W
Hannover 960–21. FC Kaiserslautern28 Oct · away
Pick: Hannover 96 60% · missed
W
1. FC Nürnberg0–11. FC Kaiserslautern24 Oct · away
Pick: 1. FC Nürnberg 58% · missed
W
1. FC Kaiserslautern2–0VfL Bochum17 Oct · home
Pick: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 41% · hit
W
FC St. Pauli1–21. FC Kaiserslautern30 Aug · away
Pick: FC St. Pauli 40% · missed

About this match

VfL Osnabrück and 1. FC Kaiserslautern meet in 2. Bundesliga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: VfL Osnabrück win 37.7%, draw 24.5%, 1. FC Kaiserslautern win 37.8%. The pick is 1. FC Kaiserslautern win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.9%. Both teams to score: 52.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.