ScoreProb
2. Bundesliga Germany Round 11 2026

1. FC Nürnberg vs SV Darmstadt 98

1. FC Nürnberg Home · Elo 1,568
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
SV Darmstadt 98 Away · Elo 1,546
Max-Morlock-Stadion, Nuremberg Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: 1. FC Nürnberg win
1. FC Nürnberg winPick
57.3%
Draw
19.1%
SV Darmstadt 98 win
23.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.8%
No43.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.9%
Under 2.539.1%

How much we know

1. FC Nürnberg history61 matches
SV Darmstadt 98 history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why 1. FC Nürnberg are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,568 against 1,546. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.77 goals a game over 61 matches for 1. FC Nürnberg, against 1.69 over 64 for SV Darmstadt 98.

  • Defences are close

    1. FC Nürnberg concede 1.41 a game, SV Darmstadt 98 1.39.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    64% of 1. FC Nürnberg matches, against 59% for SV Darmstadt 98. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
1. FC Nürnberg
SV Darmstadt 98
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1567.8
ELO
1546.1
61
ELO · Matches
64
1567.8
Current Team ELO
1546.1
1546.1
Current Opponent ELO
1567.8
21.71
Current ELO Difference
-21.71
0.53
Expected score
0.47
61
History Matches
64
0.05
Residual Mean
0.03
54.14
Overperformance
52.53
0.36
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.60
2.40
Goals for per game
2.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.40
PPG
1.50
3.60
Goals for per game
2.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.30
70.0%
Win rate
40.0%
3.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
2.37
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.27
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.64
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.87
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.21
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
64
1.48
PPG
1.48
41.0%
Win rate
40.6%
24.6%
Draw rate
26.6%
34.4%
Loss rate
32.8%
85.2%
Over 1.5 rate
79.7%
63.9%
Over 2.5 rate
59.4%
27.9%
Over 3.5 rate
39.1%
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.88
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
33
1.63
PPG
1.03
50.0%
Win rate
24.2%
13.3%
Draw rate
30.3%
36.7%
Loss rate
45.5%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
63.3%
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
39.4%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
30
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.77
Goals for per game
1.69
80.3%
Scoring rate
76.6%
63.9%
BTTS rate
59.4%
1.57
Goals for per game
1.55
76.7%
Scoring rate
81.8%
50.0%
BTTS rate
75.8%
3.50
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
61
History Matches
64
1.77
Goals Mean
1.69
1.67
Goals Std
1.47
80.3%
Scored 1+ rate
76.6%
45.9%
Scored 2+ rate
48.4%
27.9%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
1.57
Venue Goals Mean
1.55
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.41
Goals against per game
1.39
80.3%
Conceding rate
76.6%
1.23
Goals against per game
1.73
70.0%
Conceding rate
90.9%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
61
History Matches
64
1.41
Conceded Mean
1.39
0.96
Conceded Std
1.13
45.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.2%
14.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.1%
1.23
Venue Conceded Mean
1.73
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
19.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.4%
19.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.4%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
9.1%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
19.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.4%
19.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.4%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
9.1%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
19.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
64
0.98
Result entropy
0.99
2.03
Goal Difference Std
1.88
1.91
Stability score
1.36
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
63
23
Lead Matches
18
65.2%
Lead Win Rate
72.2%
0.74
Lead Points Retention
0.78
11
Trailing Matches
19
36.4%
Non-loss rate
36.8%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
15.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
63
0.84
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
0.93
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.90
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.94
Rest days
75.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
31
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.39
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.52
28
Long Rest History Matches
34
1.46
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.47
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
3.00
PPG
0.50
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.50
2.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
7
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.92
Portability PPG Std
0.43
2.60
Portability PPG Range
1.10
35.11
Portability Score
53.71
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO21.71
PPG-0.01
GF0.08
GA0.02
PPG2.50
PPG0.60
PPG0.60
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate20.9%
Failed-to-score rate5.2%
History Matches-3
Goals Mean0.08
Goals Std0.21
Scored 1+ rate3.8%
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate2.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.02
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.10
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.02
Conceded Std-0.16
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate3.7%
Conceded 3+ rate0.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.49
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.34
History Matches-3
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.15
Stability score0.55
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.44
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.66
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches5
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate0.00
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.49
Portability PPG Range1.50
Portability Score-18.60
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.13
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.01
Current Team ELO21.71
Current Opponent ELO-21.71
Current ELO Difference43.41
Expected score0.06
History Matches-3
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.61
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.29

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

1. FC Nürnberg

W
FC St. Pauli1–31. FC Nürnberg1 Nov · away
Pick: 1. FC Nürnberg 47% · hit
L
Bayer Leverkusen5–21. FC Nürnberg28 Oct · away
Pick: Bayer Leverkusen 64% · hit
L
1. FC Nürnberg0–11. FC Kaiserslautern24 Oct · home
Pick: 1. FC Nürnberg 58% · missed
D
Energie Cottbus1–11. FC Nürnberg16 Oct · away
Pick: 1. FC Nürnberg 45% · missed
W
1. FC Nürnberg4–1Arminia Bielefeld29 Aug · home
Pick: 1. FC Nürnberg 51% · hit

SV Darmstadt 98

D
SV Darmstadt 981–11. FC Magdeburg31 Oct · home
Pick: SV Darmstadt 98 52% · missed
W
SV Elversberg0–2SV Darmstadt 9827 Oct · away
Pick: SV Elversberg 56% · missed
D
SV Darmstadt 980–0FC St. Pauli23 Oct · home
Pick: SV Darmstadt 98 39% · missed
L
Karlsruher SC4–0SV Darmstadt 9818 Oct · away
Pick: Karlsruher SC 46% · hit
L
SV Darmstadt 980–1Hannover 9630 Aug · home
Pick: SV Darmstadt 98 50% · missed

About this match

1. FC Nürnberg and SV Darmstadt 98 meet in 2. Bundesliga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Nuremberg. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: 1. FC Nürnberg win 57.3%, draw 19.1%, SV Darmstadt 98 win 23.6%. The pick is 1. FC Nürnberg win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.9%. Both teams to score: 56.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.