ScoreProb
Regionalliga - SudWest Germany Sudwest - 15 2026

VfR Aalen vs Hessen Kassel

VfR Aalen Home · Elo 1,659
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hessen Kassel Away · Elo 1,558
Bediani Arena, Aalen Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: VfR Aalen win
VfR Aalen winPick
41.5%
Draw
19.6%
Hessen Kassel win
38.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.2%
No38.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.1%
Under 2.535.9%

How much we know

VfR Aalen history60 matches
Hessen Kassel history66 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why VfR Aalen are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • VfR Aalen are rated 101 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,659 against 1,558. On rating alone VfR Aalen would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • VfR Aalen score more

    2.22 goals a game over 60 matches for VfR Aalen, against 1.91 over 66 for Hessen Kassel.

  • VfR Aalen concede fewer

    VfR Aalen concede 0.92 a game, Hessen Kassel 1.47.

  • Hessen Kassel games more often go over 2.5 goals

    62% of VfR Aalen matches, against 73% for Hessen Kassel. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
VfR Aalen
Hessen Kassel
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1659.3
ELO
1557.9
60
ELO · Matches
66
1659.3
Current Team ELO
1557.9
1557.9
Current Opponent ELO
1659.3
101.4
Current ELO Difference
-101.4
0.64
Expected score
0.36
60
History Matches
66
0.14
Residual Mean
0.04
60.19
Overperformance
52.83
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.20
1.00
Goals for per game
1.80
1.60
Goals against per game
2.60
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.20
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.08
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.73
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.80
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
66
2.15
PPG
1.65
65.0%
Win rate
48.5%
20.0%
Draw rate
19.7%
15.0%
Loss rate
31.8%
86.7%
Over 1.5 rate
87.9%
61.7%
Over 2.5 rate
72.7%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
48.5%
1.93
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
35
2.25
PPG
1.51
68.8%
Win rate
45.7%
18.8%
Draw rate
14.3%
12.5%
Loss rate
40.0%
81.3%
Over 1.5 rate
88.6%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
77.1%
43.8%
Over 3.5 rate
51.4%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
32
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.22
Goals for per game
1.91
86.7%
Scoring rate
83.3%
51.7%
BTTS rate
65.2%
2.38
Goals for per game
1.94
87.5%
Scoring rate
85.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
74.3%
0.67
Goals for per game
2.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
60
History Matches
66
2.22
Goals Mean
1.91
1.51
Goals Std
1.31
86.7%
Scored 1+ rate
83.3%
66.7%
Scored 2+ rate
62.1%
38.3%
Scored 3+ rate
28.8%
2.38
Venue Goals Mean
1.94
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.92
Goals against per game
1.47
60.0%
Conceding rate
77.3%
0.81
Goals against per game
1.63
56.3%
Conceding rate
85.7%
1.67
Goals against per game
2.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
60
History Matches
66
0.92
Conceded Mean
1.47
0.94
Conceded Std
1.21
23.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.4%
8.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.7%
0.81
Venue Conceded Mean
1.63
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
66
0.81
Result entropy
0.94
1.93
Goal Difference Std
1.99
19.31
Stability score
5.76
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
66
31
Lead Matches
20
87.1%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.85
8
Trailing Matches
23
37.5%
Non-loss rate
34.8%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
13.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
0.93
First Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
1.29
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.06
0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
83.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
5
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.80
41
Normal Rest History Matches
42
2.07
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.86
16
Long Rest History Matches
18
2.19
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.17
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
2
0.67
PPG
1.50
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
66.7%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.50
3
Current Competition Matches
2
0.67
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
5
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.66
Portability PPG Std
0.47
1.77
Portability PPG Range
1.29
43.23
Portability Score
51.43
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
66
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO101.4
PPG0.50
GF0.31
GA-0.55
PPG-0.83
PPG0.74
PPG-0.40
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate17.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate29.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-6
Goals Mean0.31
Goals Std0.20
Scored 1+ rate3.3%
Scored 2+ rate4.5%
Scored 3+ rate9.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.43
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.35
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean-0.55
Conceded Std-0.27
Clean-sheet rate17.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.19
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean-0.82
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.82
History Matches-6
Result entropy-0.14
Goal Difference Std-0.05
Stability score13.55
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.18
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate7.1%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches-15
Non-loss rate2.7%
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.47
Second Half Goals For Mean0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-0.83
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.18
Portability PPG Range0.49
Portability Score-8.20
Rest days-6.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match1.20
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.22
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match1.02
Current Team ELO101.4
Current Opponent ELO-101.4
Current ELO Difference202.8
Expected score0.28
History Matches-6
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance7.36
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

VfR Aalen

W
Stuttgarter Kickers0–1VfR Aalen31 Oct · away
Pick: Stuttgarter Kickers 56% · missed
W
SV Sandhausen0–1VfR Aalen24 Oct · away
Pick: SV Sandhausen 44% · missed
W
VfR Aalen2–0FC Astoria Walldorf17 Oct · home
Pick: VfR Aalen 60% · hit
W
FSV Mainz 05 II1–3VfR Aalen30 Aug · away
Pick: FSV Mainz 05 II 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Hessen Kassel

L
Hessen Kassel0–1Barockstadt Fulda-Lehn.31 Oct · home
Pick: Hessen Kassel 39% · missed
L
FC Astoria Walldorf4–1Hessen Kassel24 Oct · away
Pick: Hessen Kassel 45% · missed
L
Hessen Kassel0–3VfR Mannheim17 Oct · home
Pick: Hessen Kassel 42% · missed
L
Hessen Kassel0–1Eintracht Trier1 Sep · home
Pick: Hessen Kassel 41% · missed
L
TSV Steinbach2–1Hessen Kassel29 Aug · away
Pick: TSV Steinbach 52% · hit

About this match

VfR Aalen and Hessen Kassel meet in Regionalliga - SudWest on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Bediani Arena, Aalen. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: VfR Aalen win 41.5%, draw 19.6%, Hessen Kassel win 38.9%. The pick is VfR Aalen win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.1%. Both teams to score: 61.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.