ScoreProb
Serie B Italy Round 11 2026

Vicenza Virtus vs Cremonese

Vicenza Virtus Home · Elo 1,646
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Cremonese Away · Elo 1,456
Stadio Romeo Menti, Vicenza Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Vicenza Virtus win
Vicenza Virtus winPick
65.8%
Draw
21.4%
Cremonese win
12.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.2%
No45.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.554.2%
Under 2.545.8%

How much we know

Vicenza Virtus history65 matches
Cremonese history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 18:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (65.8%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Vicenza Virtus are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Vicenza Virtus are rated 190 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,646 against 1,456. On rating alone Vicenza Virtus would be expected to take 75% of the points on offer.

  • Vicenza Virtus score more

    1.69 goals a game over 65 matches for Vicenza Virtus, against 1.20 over 65 for Cremonese.

  • Vicenza Virtus concede fewer

    Vicenza Virtus concede 0.91 a game, Cremonese 1.35.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    51% of Vicenza Virtus matches, against 51% for Cremonese. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Vicenza Virtus
Cremonese
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1646.1
ELO
1456.3
65
ELO · Matches
65
1646.1
Current Team ELO
1456.3
1456.3
Current Opponent ELO
1646.1
189.8
Current ELO Difference
-189.8
0.75
Expected score
0.25
65
History Matches
65
0.11
Residual Mean
-0.03
58.24
Overperformance
48.01
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.11
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.60
2.40
Goals for per game
1.40
2.20
Goals against per game
0.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.40
2.20
Goals for per game
1.30
1.60
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.27
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.54
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.39
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
65
2.11
PPG
1.15
63.1%
Win rate
27.7%
21.5%
Draw rate
32.3%
15.4%
Loss rate
40.0%
67.7%
Over 1.5 rate
72.3%
50.8%
Over 2.5 rate
50.8%
29.2%
Over 3.5 rate
30.8%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
30
2.25
PPG
1.00
68.8%
Win rate
26.7%
18.8%
Draw rate
20.0%
12.5%
Loss rate
53.3%
62.5%
Over 1.5 rate
63.3%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
28.1%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
32
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.69
Goals for per game
1.20
86.2%
Scoring rate
64.6%
53.8%
BTTS rate
49.2%
1.75
Goals for per game
0.97
84.4%
Scoring rate
56.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
46.7%
3.00
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
65
History Matches
65
1.69
Goals Mean
1.20
1.31
Goals Std
1.19
86.2%
Scored 1+ rate
64.6%
46.2%
Scored 2+ rate
32.3%
20.0%
Scored 3+ rate
18.5%
1.75
Venue Goals Mean
0.97
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.91
Goals against per game
1.35
61.5%
Conceding rate
69.2%
0.75
Goals against per game
1.57
56.3%
Conceding rate
80.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
65
History Matches
65
0.91
Conceded Mean
1.35
0.94
Conceded Std
1.25
20.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.1%
7.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.3%
0.75
Venue Conceded Mean
1.57
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
35.4%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
15.6%
Failed-to-score rate
43.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
35.4%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
15.6%
Failed-to-score rate
43.3%
38.5%
Clean-sheet rate
30.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
65
0.83
Result entropy
0.99
1.60
Goal Difference Std
1.79
17.23
Stability score
1.05
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
65
30
Lead Matches
17
86.7%
Lead Win Rate
76.5%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.82
11
Trailing Matches
22
36.4%
Non-loss rate
18.2%
18.2%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
0.74
First Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
0.95
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
79.00
Rest days
77.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
41
Normal Rest History Matches
37
2.15
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.22
22
Long Rest History Matches
24
2.09
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.04
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
0.00
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
9
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.24
Portability PPG Std
0.34
0.59
Portability PPG Range
0.77
67.32
Portability Score
59.83
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO189.8
PPG0.95
GF0.49
GA-0.45
PPG3.00
PPG1.25
PPG0.00
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate7.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate23.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.28
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.49
Goals Std0.12
Scored 1+ rate21.5%
Scored 2+ rate13.8%
Scored 3+ rate1.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.78
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.67
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.45
Conceded Std-0.31
Clean-sheet rate7.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.23
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.82
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.52
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.16
Goal Difference Std-0.19
Stability score16.18
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.19
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches13
Lead Win Rate10.2%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches-11
Non-loss rate18.2%
Trailing Win Rate18.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.09
Portability PPG Range-0.18
Portability Score7.49
Rest days1.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.33
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.93
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match1.05
Current Team ELO189.8
Current Opponent ELO-189.8
Current ELO Difference379.7
Expected score0.50
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.13
Overperformance10.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Vicenza Virtus

L
Palermo3–1Vicenza Virtus1 Nov · away
Pick: Palermo 40% · hit
L
Vicenza Virtus1–2Modena27 Oct · home
Pick: Vicenza Virtus 50% · missed
W
Empoli0–2Vicenza Virtus23 Oct · away
Pick: Empoli 38% · missed
D
Benevento2–2Vicenza Virtus17 Oct · away
Pick: Vicenza Virtus 39% · missed
L
Avellino3–0Vicenza Virtus29 Aug · away
Pick: Vicenza Virtus 45% · missed

Cremonese

W
Cremonese2–0Benevento31 Oct · home
Pick: Benevento 35% · missed
W
Mantova0–2Cremonese27 Oct · away
Pick: Mantova 58% · missed
L
Cremonese0–1Juve Stabia24 Oct · home
Pick: Cremonese 40% · missed
L
Pisa3–1Cremonese17 Oct · away
Pick: Pisa 41% · hit
W
Parma0–2Cremonese1 Sep · away
Pick: Parma 42% · missed

About this match

Vicenza Virtus and Cremonese meet in Serie B on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 18:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadio Romeo Menti, Vicenza. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Vicenza Virtus win 65.8%, draw 21.4%, Cremonese win 12.9%. The pick is Vicenza Virtus win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.2%. Both teams to score: 54.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.