ScoreProb
Serie B Italy Round 11 2026

Carrarese vs Sampdoria

Carrarese Home · Elo 1,450
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sampdoria Away · Elo 1,487
Stadio dei Marmi, Carrara Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Carrarese win
Carrarese winPick
37.7%
Draw
28.1%
Sampdoria win
34.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.5%
No50.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.6%
Under 2.555.4%

How much we know

Carrarese history60 matches
Sampdoria history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.7%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Carrarese are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Sampdoria are rated 37 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,487 against 1,450. On rating alone Sampdoria would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Carrarese score more

    1.13 goals a game over 60 matches for Carrarese, against 0.90 over 62 for Sampdoria.

  • Sampdoria concede fewer

    Carrarese concede 1.38 a game, Sampdoria 1.10.

  • Carrarese games more often go over 2.5 goals

    48% of Carrarese matches, against 32% for Sampdoria. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Carrarese
Sampdoria
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1450.0
ELO
1487.2
60
ELO · Matches
62
1450.0
Current Team ELO
1487.2
1487.2
Current Opponent ELO
1450.0
-37.13
Current ELO Difference
37.13
0.45
Expected score
0.55
60
History Matches
62
-0.05
Residual Mean
-0.01
46.53
Overperformance
49.48
-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.00
0.60
Goals for per game
0.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.20
0.80
Goals for per game
0.70
1.50
Goals against per game
0.90
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.78
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.42
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.54
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
62
1.08
PPG
1.26
25.0%
Win rate
30.6%
33.3%
Draw rate
33.9%
41.7%
Loss rate
35.5%
71.7%
Over 1.5 rate
61.3%
48.3%
Over 2.5 rate
32.3%
26.7%
Over 3.5 rate
12.9%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.29
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
30
1.54
PPG
0.70
39.3%
Win rate
10.0%
35.7%
Draw rate
40.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
60.7%
Over 1.5 rate
73.3%
53.6%
Over 2.5 rate
36.7%
32.1%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.23
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.08
28
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.13
Goals for per game
0.90
61.7%
Scoring rate
64.5%
48.3%
BTTS rate
43.5%
1.43
Goals for per game
0.77
64.3%
Scoring rate
60.0%
46.4%
BTTS rate
56.7%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
60
History Matches
62
1.13
Goals Mean
0.90
1.09
Goals Std
0.87
61.7%
Scored 1+ rate
64.5%
36.7%
Scored 2+ rate
19.4%
15.0%
Scored 3+ rate
4.8%
1.43
Venue Goals Mean
0.77
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.38
Goals against per game
1.10
75.0%
Conceding rate
66.1%
1.07
Goals against per game
1.40
60.7%
Conceding rate
86.7%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
60
History Matches
62
1.38
Conceded Mean
1.10
1.11
Conceded Std
1.00
46.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.3%
10.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.3%
1.07
Venue Conceded Mean
1.40
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.9%
38.3%
Failed-to-score rate
35.5%
39.3%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
35.7%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.9%
38.3%
Failed-to-score rate
35.5%
39.3%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
35.7%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
62
0.98
Result entropy
1.00
1.49
Goal Difference Std
1.29
1.92
Stability score
0.17
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
60
Eligible Matches
62
12
Lead Matches
13
58.3%
Lead Win Rate
69.2%
0.72
Lead Points Retention
0.77
22
Trailing Matches
18
13.6%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
60
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.43
First Half Goals For Mean
0.39
0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
0.70
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.97
Rest days
76.89
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
35
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.09
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.24
23
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.04
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.23
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
7
Competition Season Count
7
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.02
Portability PPG Std
0.24
0.04
Portability PPG Range
0.59
95.96
Portability Score
67.15
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-37.13
PPG-0.17
GF0.23
GA0.29
PPG-1.00
PPG0.84
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate2.8%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate26.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.23
Goals Std0.21
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate17.3%
Scored 3+ rate10.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.66
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.20
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.29
Conceded Std0.12
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate14.4%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.12
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.20
Stability score1.75
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.12
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.11
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.20
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.22
Portability PPG Range-0.55
Portability Score28.81
Rest days1.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match2.00
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.15
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.19
Current Team ELO-37.13
Current Opponent ELO37.13
Current ELO Difference-74.25
Expected score-0.11
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.95
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Carrarese

L
Hellas Verona3–0Carrarese1 Nov · away
Pick: Hellas Verona 48% · hit
W
Carrarese2–1Arezzo28 Oct · home
Pick: Arezzo 58% · missed
L
Palermo2–1Carrarese25 Oct · away
Pick: Palermo 64% · hit
W
Carrarese2–1Modena17 Oct · home
Pick: Modena 42% · missed
D
Ascoli1–1Carrarese29 Aug · away
Pick: Ascoli 48% · missed

Sampdoria

W
Sampdoria2–0Virtus Entella31 Oct · home
Pick: Sampdoria 48% · hit
L
Ascoli2–0Sampdoria27 Oct · away
Pick: Ascoli 54% · hit
D
Sudtirol1–1Sampdoria24 Oct · away
Pick: Sudtirol 47% · missed
L
Sampdoria1–2Arezzo18 Oct · home
Pick: Arezzo 41% · hit
L
Sampdoria1–2Juve Stabia29 Aug · home
Pick: Juve Stabia 39% · hit

About this match

Carrarese and Sampdoria meet in Serie B on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:15 UTC. The match is played at Stadio dei Marmi, Carrara. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Carrarese win 37.7%, draw 28.1%, Sampdoria win 34.2%. The pick is Carrarese win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.6%. Both teams to score: 49.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.