ScoreProb
III Liga - Group 2 Poland Group II - 16 2026

Victoria Września vs Wda Świecie

Victoria Września Home · Elo 1,461
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Wda Świecie Away · Elo 1,537
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Wda Świecie win
Victoria Września win
26.7%
Draw
24.6%
Wda Świecie winPick
48.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.4%
No45.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.0%
Under 2.545.0%

How much we know

Victoria Września history39 matches
Wda Świecie history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Wda Świecie are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Wda Świecie are rated 76 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,537 against 1,461. On rating alone Wda Świecie would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Wda Świecie score more

    1.10 goals a game over 39 matches for Victoria Września, against 1.48 over 56 for Wda Świecie.

  • Defences are close

    Victoria Września concede 1.51 a game, Wda Świecie 1.63.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    54% of Victoria Września matches, against 57% for Wda Świecie. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Victoria Września
Wda Świecie
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1460.8
ELO
1536.6
39
ELO · Matches
56
1460.8
Current Team ELO
1536.6
1536.6
Current Opponent ELO
1460.8
-75.80
Current ELO Difference
75.80
0.39
Expected score
0.61
39
History Matches
56
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.03
47.22
Overperformance
52.14
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
2.20
0.80
Goals for per game
1.80
2.80
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.20
1.00
Goals for per game
1.30
2.20
Goals against per game
2.50
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.77
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.50
1.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
3.58
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.83
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.76
Overall performance9 signals
90
39
Matches
56
1.10
PPG
1.52
33.3%
Win rate
42.9%
10.3%
Draw rate
23.2%
56.4%
Loss rate
33.9%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
80.4%
53.8%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
30.8%
Over 3.5 rate
32.1%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.66
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
29
1.14
PPG
1.21
33.3%
Win rate
31.0%
14.3%
Draw rate
27.6%
52.4%
Loss rate
41.4%
76.2%
Over 1.5 rate
69.0%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
41.4%
47.6%
Over 3.5 rate
24.1%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.07
21
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.10
Goals for per game
1.48
64.1%
Scoring rate
76.8%
48.7%
BTTS rate
53.6%
1.29
Goals for per game
1.07
71.4%
Scoring rate
65.5%
57.1%
BTTS rate
41.4%
0.80
Goals for per game
1.80
60.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
39
History Matches
56
1.10
Goals Mean
1.48
1.03
Goals Std
1.28
64.1%
Scored 1+ rate
76.8%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
42.9%
12.8%
Scored 3+ rate
17.9%
1.29
Venue Goals Mean
1.07
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.51
Goals against per game
1.63
74.4%
Conceding rate
73.2%
1.67
Goals against per game
1.76
71.4%
Conceding rate
69.0%
2.80
Goals against per game
1.00
80.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
39
History Matches
56
1.51
Conceded Mean
1.63
1.30
Conceded Std
2.06
46.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.5%
20.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.6%
1.67
Venue Conceded Mean
1.76
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.6%
Clean-sheet rate
26.8%
35.9%
Failed-to-score rate
23.2%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
34.5%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.6%
Clean-sheet rate
26.8%
35.9%
Failed-to-score rate
23.2%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
34.5%
25.6%
Clean-sheet rate
26.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
39
History Matches
56
0.84
Result entropy
0.97
1.61
Goal Difference Std
2.66
16.01
Stability score
2.71
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
39
Eligible Matches
56
10
Lead Matches
15
70.0%
Lead Win Rate
73.3%
0.70
Lead Points Retention
0.82
13
Trailing Matches
18
7.7%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
39
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
0.54
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.90
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.00
Rest days
76.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
18
Normal Rest History Matches
32
0.94
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.53
16
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.19
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
80.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.75
5
Current Competition Matches
5
0.60
Current Competition PPG
2.20
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.80
3
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.29
Portability PPG Std
0.39
0.58
Portability PPG Range
0.84
63.22
Portability Score
56.49
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
39
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-75.80
PPG-0.42
GF-0.38
GA-0.11
PPG-1.60
PPG-0.06
PPG-1.60
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-17
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate12.7%
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-17
Goals Mean-0.38
Goals Std-0.25
Scored 1+ rate-0.13
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.22
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.23
History Matches-17
Conceded Mean-0.11
Conceded Std-0.76
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate8.7%
Conceded 3+ rate0.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.92
History Matches-17
Result entropy-0.13
Goal Difference Std-1.04
Stability score13.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.44
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.93
Eligible Matches-17
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.09
Trailing Win Rate-0.03
Halftime Coverage Matches-17
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.37
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.80
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.09
Portability PPG Range-0.26
Portability Score6.73
Rest days0.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match1.75
Normal Rest History Matches-14
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.59
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.31
Current Team ELO-75.80
Current Opponent ELO75.80
Current ELO Difference-151.6
Expected score-0.21
History Matches-17
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-4.91
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Victoria Września

D
Elana Toruń0–0Victoria Września31 Oct · away
Pick: Elana Toruń 61% · missed
L
Victoria Września0–1Noteć Czarnków24 Oct · home
Pick: Noteć Czarnków 53% · hit
D
Unia Swarzędz0–0Victoria Września17 Oct · away
Pick: Unia Swarzędz 62% · missed
L
Bałtyk Koszalin2–0Victoria Września29 Aug · away
Pick: Bałtyk Koszalin 50% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Wda Świecie

D
Wda Świecie1–1Bałtyk Koszalin31 Oct · home
Pick: Wda Świecie 65% · missed
W
Kotwica Kórnik0–2Wda Świecie24 Oct · away
Pick: Wda Świecie 58% · hit
W
Wda Świecie1–0Flota Świnoujście18 Oct · home
Pick: Flota Świnoujście 40% · missed
W
Lech Poznań II1–4Wda Świecie14 Oct · away
Pick: Lech Poznań II 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Victoria Września and Wda Świecie meet in III Liga - Group 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Victoria Września win 26.7%, draw 24.6%, Wda Świecie win 48.7%. The pick is Wda Świecie win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.0%. Both teams to score: 54.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.