ScoreProb
UEFA Champions League World Round 4 2026

Viking vs Sabah FA

Viking Home · Elo 1,738
Wed 4 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sabah FA Away · Elo 1,704
SR-Bank Arena, Stavanger Referee: Sander van der Eijk Verified before kickoff · first published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Viking win
Viking winPick
40.3%
Draw
27.3%
Sabah FA win
32.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.0%
No41.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.3%
Under 2.534.7%

How much we know

Viking history77 matches
Sabah FA history78 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    4 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Viking are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Viking are rated 34 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,738 against 1,704. On rating alone Viking would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Viking score more

    2.58 goals a game over 77 matches for Viking, against 1.88 over 78 for Sabah FA.

  • Sabah FA concede fewer

    Viking concede 1.14 a game, Sabah FA 1.01.

  • Viking games more often go over 2.5 goals

    74% of Viking matches, against 55% for Sabah FA. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Viking
Sabah FA
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1738.5
ELO
1704.0
77
ELO · Matches
78
1738.5
Current Team ELO
1704.0
1704.0
Current Opponent ELO
1738.5
34.47
Current ELO Difference
-34.47
0.55
Expected score
0.45
77
History Matches
78
0.14
Residual Mean
0.12
60.87
Overperformance
59.92
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.80
1.80
Goals for per game
2.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
2.10
1.60
Goals for per game
1.90
1.10
Goals against per game
1.10
50.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.30
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.89
Overall performance9 signals
90
77
Matches
78
2.23
PPG
1.91
68.8%
Win rate
53.8%
16.9%
Draw rate
29.5%
14.3%
Loss rate
16.7%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
79.5%
74.0%
Over 2.5 rate
55.1%
49.4%
Over 3.5 rate
35.9%
1.93
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
40
2.59
PPG
1.78
84.4%
Win rate
47.5%
6.3%
Draw rate
35.0%
9.4%
Loss rate
17.5%
90.6%
Over 1.5 rate
85.0%
87.5%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
59.4%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
32
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.58
Goals for per game
1.88
96.1%
Scoring rate
85.9%
63.6%
BTTS rate
60.3%
3.19
Goals for per game
1.90
96.9%
Scoring rate
90.0%
62.5%
BTTS rate
67.5%
2.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
77
History Matches
78
2.58
Goals Mean
1.88
1.60
Goals Std
1.32
96.1%
Scored 1+ rate
85.9%
70.1%
Scored 2+ rate
59.0%
46.8%
Scored 3+ rate
28.2%
3.19
Venue Goals Mean
1.90
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.14
Goals against per game
1.01
66.2%
Conceding rate
67.9%
1.06
Goals against per game
1.18
62.5%
Conceding rate
72.5%
2.00
Goals against per game
0.88
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
77
History Matches
78
1.14
Conceded Mean
1.01
1.10
Conceded Std
0.91
31.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.6%
13.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.4%
1.06
Venue Conceded Mean
1.18
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
33.8%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
3.9%
Failed-to-score rate
14.1%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
27.5%
3.1%
Failed-to-score rate
10.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
33.8%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
3.9%
Failed-to-score rate
14.1%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
27.5%
3.1%
Failed-to-score rate
10.0%
33.8%
Clean-sheet rate
32.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
77
History Matches
78
0.76
Result entropy
0.90
1.93
Goal Difference Std
1.56
23.96
Stability score
9.70
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
77
Eligible Matches
78
42
Lead Matches
25
81.0%
Lead Win Rate
76.0%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.80
16
Trailing Matches
13
50.0%
Non-loss rate
61.5%
37.5%
Trailing Win Rate
23.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
77
Halftime Coverage Matches
78
1.16
First Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
1.43
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.08
0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.55
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.04
Rest days
71.14
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
10
Short Rest History Matches
0
2.20
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
45
Normal Rest History Matches
54
2.18
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.04
21
Long Rest History Matches
23
2.43
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.70
Competition & season17 signals
170
1
Matches
8
1.00
PPG
2.25
0.0%
Win rate
75.0%
100.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.54
1
Current Competition Matches
8
1.00
Current Competition PPG
2.25
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.13
8
Competition Season Count
9
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.28
Portability PPG Std
0.54
0.75
Portability PPG Range
1.70
63.82
Portability Score
48.08
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
77
Clean History Matches
78
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO34.47
PPG0.32
GF0.70
GA0.13
PPG-1.25
PPG0.82
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate1.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate10.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.70
Goals Std0.28
Scored 1+ rate10.2%
Scored 2+ rate11.2%
Scored 3+ rate18.5%
Venue Goals Mean1.29
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.14
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.13
Conceded Std0.19
Clean-sheet rate1.7%
Conceded 2+ rate5.5%
Conceded 3+ rate6.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.76
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.14
Goal Difference Std0.38
Stability score14.26
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.77
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches17
Lead Win Rate5.0%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.12
Trailing Win Rate14.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean0.35
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Current Competition Matches-7
Current Competition PPG-1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.13
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.26
Portability PPG Range-0.95
Portability Score15.75
Rest days6.91
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.14
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.73
Current Team ELO34.47
Current Opponent ELO-34.47
Current ELO Difference68.93
Expected score0.10
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.94
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Viking

L
Bodo/Glimt3–2Viking30 Oct · away
Pick: Bodo/Glimt 55% · hit
W
Viking3–1Tromso25 Oct · home
Pick: Viking 57% · hit
L
Aston Villa3–1Viking21 Oct · away
Pick: Viking 37% · missed
W
Viking3–2Fredrikstad17 Oct · home
Pick: Viking 65% · hit
D
Viking3–3Bayern München13 Oct · home
Pick: Bayern München 41% · missed

Sabah FA

L
Turan3–2Sabah FA30 Oct · away
Pick: Sabah FA 55% · missed
D
Sabah FA0–0Qarabag25 Oct · home
Pick: Qarabag 36% · missed
L
Sabah FA1–2Borussia Dortmund20 Oct · home
Pick: Borussia Dortmund 43% · hit
W
Qabala0–4Sabah FA17 Oct · away
Pick: Sabah FA 66% · hit
W
Sabah FA2–0Slavia Praha13 Oct · home
Pick: Slavia Praha 37% · missed

About this match

Viking and Sabah FA meet in UEFA Champions League on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. The match is played at SR-Bank Arena, Stavanger. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Viking win 40.3%, draw 27.3%, Sabah FA win 32.3%. The pick is Viking win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.3%. Both teams to score: 59.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.