ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 Spain Group 1 - 10 2026

Viveiro vs Alondras

Viveiro Home · Elo 1,464
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Alondras Away · Elo 1,489
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Viveiro win
Viveiro winPick
34.2%
Draw
32.0%
Alondras win
33.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.0%
No51.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.7%
Under 2.553.3%

How much we know

Viveiro history49 matches
Alondras history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (34.2%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Viveiro are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Alondras are rated 25 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,489 against 1,464. On rating alone Alondras would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Alondras score more

    0.94 goals a game over 49 matches for Viveiro, against 1.35 over 49 for Alondras.

  • Defences are close

    Viveiro concede 1.27 a game, Alondras 1.31.

  • Alondras games more often go over 2.5 goals

    37% of Viveiro matches, against 51% for Alondras. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 10 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Viveiro
Alondras@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1463.9
ELO
1489.2
49
ELO · Matches
49
1463.9
Current Team ELO
1489.2
1489.2
Current Opponent ELO
1463.9
-25.36
Current ELO Difference
25.36
0.46
Expected score
0.54
49
History Matches
49
-0.04
Residual Mean
-0.01
47.10
Overperformance
49.02
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.40
0.60
Goals for per game
1.20
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.10
0.80
Goals for per game
1.10
1.30
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.27
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.68
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
49
1.12
PPG
1.41
28.6%
Win rate
36.7%
26.5%
Draw rate
30.6%
44.9%
Loss rate
32.7%
61.2%
Over 1.5 rate
79.6%
36.7%
Over 2.5 rate
51.0%
22.4%
Over 3.5 rate
30.6%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
25
1.39
PPG
1.44
34.8%
Win rate
40.0%
34.8%
Draw rate
24.0%
30.4%
Loss rate
36.0%
52.2%
Over 1.5 rate
88.0%
30.4%
Over 2.5 rate
64.0%
13.0%
Over 3.5 rate
28.0%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
23
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.94
Goals for per game
1.35
59.2%
Scoring rate
73.5%
38.8%
BTTS rate
46.9%
0.96
Goals for per game
1.48
56.5%
Scoring rate
80.0%
30.4%
BTTS rate
52.0%
49
History Matches
49
0.94
Goals Mean
1.35
0.93
Goals Std
1.10
59.2%
Scored 1+ rate
73.5%
28.6%
Scored 2+ rate
42.9%
6.1%
Scored 3+ rate
14.3%
0.96
Venue Goals Mean
1.48
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.27
Goals against per game
1.31
65.3%
Conceding rate
67.3%
0.83
Goals against per game
1.40
52.2%
Conceding rate
72.0%
49
History Matches
49
1.27
Conceded Mean
1.31
1.21
Conceded Std
1.13
38.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.9%
16.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.2%
0.83
Venue Conceded Mean
1.40
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
34.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
40.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
47.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
43.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
34.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
40.8%
Failed-to-score rate
26.5%
47.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
43.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
34.7%
Clean-sheet rate
32.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
49
0.97
Result entropy
1.00
1.45
Goal Difference Std
1.73
2.65
Stability score
0.26
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
49
11
Lead Matches
11
72.7%
Lead Win Rate
63.6%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.73
17
Trailing Matches
17
17.6%
Non-loss rate
23.5%
5.9%
Trailing Win Rate
11.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.39
First Half Goals For Mean
0.51
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
0.55
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
182.0
Rest days
182.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
27
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.07
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.31
19
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.05
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.67
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.04
Portability PPG Std
0.21
0.09
Portability PPG Range
0.41
91.83
Portability Score
70.68
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-25.36
PPG-0.29
GF-0.41
GA-0.04
PPG-0.05
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate2.0%
Failed-to-score rate14.3%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate19.8%
Failed-to-score rate23.5%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.41
Goals Std-0.16
Scored 1+ rate-0.14
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean-0.52
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.07
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.04
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate2.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate4.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.57
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.01
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.28
Stability score2.39
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.47
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate9.1%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.16
Portability PPG Range-0.33
Portability Score21.14
Rest days-0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match3.00
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.24
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.61
Current Team ELO-25.36
Current Opponent ELO25.36
Current ELO Difference-50.72
Expected score-0.07
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-1.91
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Viveiro

L
Estradense3–2Viveiro25 Oct · away
Pick: Estradense 55% · hit
D
Viveiro0–0Celtiga4 Oct · home
Pick: Viveiro 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Alondras

D
Villalbés1–1Alondras25 Oct · away
Pick: Villalbés 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Viveiro and Alondras meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Viveiro win 34.2%, draw 32.0%, Alondras win 33.8%. The pick is Viveiro win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.7%. Both teams to score: 49.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.