ScoreProb
Regionalliga - North Austria North - 16 2026

Wals-Grünau vs Leonfelden

Wals-Grünau Home · Elo 1,532
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Leonfelden Away · Elo 1,489
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Wals-Grünau win
Wals-Grünau winPick
69.3%
Draw
11.7%
Leonfelden win
19.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes65.1%
No34.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.577.3%
Under 2.522.7%

How much we know

Wals-Grünau history51 matches
Leonfelden history5 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (69.3%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Wals-Grünau are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Wals-Grünau are rated 44 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,532 against 1,489. On rating alone Wals-Grünau would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Wals-Grünau score more

    2.02 goals a game over 51 matches for Wals-Grünau, against 1.60 over 5 for Leonfelden.

  • Wals-Grünau concede fewer

    Wals-Grünau concede 1.78 a game, Leonfelden 2.40.

  • Wals-Grünau games more often go over 2.5 goals

    69% of Wals-Grünau matches, against 60% for Leonfelden. The model puts this match at 77% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Wals-Grünau
Leonfelden
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1532.3
ELO
1488.7
51
ELO · Matches
5
1532.3
Current Team ELO
1488.7
1488.7
Current Opponent ELO
1532.3
43.54
Current ELO Difference
-43.54
0.56
Expected score
0.44
51
History Matches
5
0.04
Residual Mean
-0.06
52.55
Overperformance
48.83
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.00
2.40
Goals for per game
1.60
1.60
Goals against per game
2.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.00
2.00
Goals for per game
1.60
2.60
Goals against per game
2.40
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.89
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.36
2.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.40
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.15
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.37
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.06
Overall performance9 signals
90
51
Matches
5
1.61
PPG
1.00
45.1%
Win rate
20.0%
25.5%
Draw rate
40.0%
29.4%
Loss rate
40.0%
86.3%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
68.6%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
52.9%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
2.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.06
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
1
1.89
PPG
1.00
55.6%
Win rate
0.0%
22.2%
Draw rate
100.0%
22.2%
Loss rate
0.0%
85.2%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
81.5%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
63.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
27
History Matches
1
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.02
Goals for per game
1.60
88.2%
Scoring rate
80.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
60.0%
2.52
Goals for per game
1.00
96.3%
Scoring rate
100.0%
74.1%
BTTS rate
100.0%
2.40
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
51
History Matches
5
2.02
Goals Mean
1.60
1.49
Goals Std
1.36
88.2%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
54.9%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
35.3%
Scored 3+ rate
20.0%
2.52
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.78
Goals against per game
2.40
74.5%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.59
Goals against per game
1.00
74.1%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.60
Goals against per game
1.75
80.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
51
History Matches
5
1.78
Conceded Mean
2.40
1.62
Conceded Std
2.15
51.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.0%
25.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
40.0%
1.59
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
3.7%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
3.7%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
51
History Matches
5
0.97
Result entropy
0.96
2.32
Goal Difference Std
3.06
2.83
Stability score
3.98
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
51
Eligible Matches
5
22
Lead Matches
2
68.2%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.67
12
Trailing Matches
3
8.3%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
5
0.94
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.78
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.40
1.08
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.83
Rest days
77.82
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
25
Normal Rest History Matches
3
1.76
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.67
21
Long Rest History Matches
1
1.48
Long Rest Points Per Match
3.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
4
1.80
PPG
1.25
40.0%
Win rate
25.0%
60.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.49
5
Current Competition Matches
4
1.80
Current Competition PPG
1.25
0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.25
5
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.47
Portability PPG Std
—
1.14
Portability PPG Range
—
51.71
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
51
Clean History Matches
5
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO43.54
PPG0.61
GF0.42
GA-0.62
PPG0.55
PPG0.89
PPG0.80
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches46
Clean-sheet rate5.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches26
Clean-sheet rate25.9%
Failed-to-score rate3.7%
History Matches46
Goals Mean0.42
Goals Std0.13
Scored 1+ rate8.2%
Scored 2+ rate14.9%
Scored 3+ rate15.3%
Venue Goals Mean1.52
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.46
History Matches46
Conceded Mean-0.62
Conceded Std-0.53
Clean-sheet rate5.5%
Conceded 2+ rate11.0%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Conceded Mean0.59
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.35
History Matches46
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.74
Stability score-1.14
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.68
Eligible Matches46
Lead Matches20
Lead Win Rate18.2%
Lead Points Retention0.12
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate-0.25
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches46
First Half Goals For Mean0.34
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.55
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.55
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days0.01
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest History Matches22
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.09
Long Rest History Matches20
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.52
Current Team ELO43.54
Current Opponent ELO-43.54
Current ELO Difference87.07
Expected score0.12
History Matches46
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance3.72
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Wals-Grünau

L
Wals-Grünau0–1Bad Schallerbach30 Oct · home
Pick: Wals-Grünau 45% · missed
W
UFC Hallein0–2Wals-Grünau23 Oct · away
Pick: Wals-Grünau 44% · hit
W
Wals-Grünau2–1Pinzgau Saalfelden29 Aug · home
Pick: Wals-Grünau 68% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Leonfelden

D
Seekirchen1–1Leonfelden30 Oct · away
Pick: Seekirchen 52% · missed
D
Leonfelden2–2TSV St. Johann24 Oct · home
Pick: Leonfelden 51% · missed
W
Wallern / Marienkirchen1–2Leonfelden16 Oct · away
Pick: Wallern / Marienkirchen 75% · missed
D
Bad Schallerbach2–2Leonfelden29 Aug · away
Pick: Bad Schallerbach 71% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Wals-Grünau and Leonfelden meet in Regionalliga - North on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Wals-Grünau win 69.3%, draw 11.7%, Leonfelden win 19.0%. The pick is Wals-Grünau win. Over 2.5 goals: 77.3%. Both teams to score: 65.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.