ScoreProb
III Liga - Group 1 Poland Group I - 16 2026

Warta Sieradz vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki

Warta Sieradz Home · Elo 1,598
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lechia T. Mazowiecki Away · Elo 1,504
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Warta Sieradz win
Warta Sieradz winPick
44.4%
Draw
21.8%
Lechia T. Mazowiecki win
33.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.4%
No39.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.1%
Under 2.533.9%

How much we know

Warta Sieradz history61 matches
Lechia T. Mazowiecki history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Warta Sieradz are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Warta Sieradz are rated 94 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,598 against 1,504. On rating alone Warta Sieradz would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.84 goals a game over 61 matches for Warta Sieradz, against 1.98 over 57 for Lechia T. Mazowiecki.

  • Warta Sieradz concede fewer

    Warta Sieradz concede 1.03 a game, Lechia T. Mazowiecki 1.75.

  • Lechia T. Mazowiecki games more often go over 2.5 goals

    61% of Warta Sieradz matches, against 75% for Lechia T. Mazowiecki. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Warta Sieradz
Lechia T. Mazowiecki@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1597.9
ELO
1504.2
61
ELO · Matches
57
1597.9
Current Team ELO
1504.2
1504.2
Current Opponent ELO
1597.9
93.65
Current ELO Difference
-93.65
0.63
Expected score
0.37
61
History Matches
57
0.09
Residual Mean
0.00
56.80
Overperformance
50.10
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.80
1.60
Goals for per game
2.80
1.80
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.30
1.80
Goals for per game
1.90
1.40
Goals against per game
2.10
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.51
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.22
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.96
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.83
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
57
2.03
PPG
1.40
60.7%
Win rate
40.4%
21.3%
Draw rate
19.3%
18.0%
Loss rate
40.4%
78.7%
Over 1.5 rate
93.0%
60.7%
Over 2.5 rate
75.4%
27.9%
Over 3.5 rate
52.6%
1.73
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.11
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
29
2.20
PPG
1.10
68.6%
Win rate
31.0%
14.3%
Draw rate
17.2%
17.1%
Loss rate
51.7%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
93.1%
71.4%
Over 2.5 rate
79.3%
31.4%
Over 3.5 rate
51.7%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
35
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.84
Goals for per game
1.98
90.2%
Scoring rate
87.7%
55.7%
BTTS rate
77.2%
2.06
Goals for per game
1.62
91.4%
Scoring rate
82.8%
54.3%
BTTS rate
75.9%
1.60
Goals for per game
2.80
80.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
61
History Matches
57
1.84
Goals Mean
1.98
1.20
Goals Std
1.61
90.2%
Scored 1+ rate
87.7%
52.5%
Scored 2+ rate
47.4%
31.1%
Scored 3+ rate
31.6%
2.06
Venue Goals Mean
1.62
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.03
Goals against per game
1.75
60.7%
Conceding rate
87.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.10
57.1%
Conceding rate
93.1%
1.80
Goals against per game
2.20
80.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
61
History Matches
57
1.03
Conceded Mean
1.75
1.13
Conceded Std
1.06
26.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
57.9%
9.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
24.6%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
2.10
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
39.3%
Clean-sheet rate
12.3%
9.8%
Failed-to-score rate
12.3%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
6.9%
8.6%
Failed-to-score rate
17.2%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
39.3%
Clean-sheet rate
12.3%
9.8%
Failed-to-score rate
12.3%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
6.9%
8.6%
Failed-to-score rate
17.2%
39.3%
Clean-sheet rate
12.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
57
0.86
Result entropy
0.96
1.73
Goal Difference Std
2.11
14.29
Stability score
4.43
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
56
21
Lead Matches
19
81.0%
Lead Win Rate
89.5%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.91
13
Trailing Matches
18
53.8%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
23.1%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.70
First Half Goals For Mean
0.95
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
1.13
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.05
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.13
Rest days
75.17
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
33
Normal Rest History Matches
29
2.15
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.62
25
Long Rest History Matches
27
2.08
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.22
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
2.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.40
Current Competition PPG
1.80
-0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.60
5
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.30
Portability PPG Std
0.17
0.74
Portability PPG Range
0.42
62.69
Portability Score
74.37
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO93.65
PPG0.63
GF-0.15
GA-0.72
PPG-0.40
PPG1.10
PPG-0.40
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate27.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate36.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.15
Goals Std-0.40
Scored 1+ rate2.4%
Scored 2+ rate5.1%
Scored 3+ rate0.00
Venue Goals Mean0.44
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.35
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.72
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate27.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.32
Conceded 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.28
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.10
Goal Difference Std-0.39
Stability score9.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.13
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.09
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate31.6%
Trailing Win Rate17.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.50
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.80
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.13
Portability PPG Range0.33
Portability Score-11.68
Rest days0.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.53
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.86
Current Team ELO93.65
Current Opponent ELO-93.65
Current ELO Difference187.3
Expected score0.26
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance6.70
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Warta Sieradz

W
Weszlo0–1Warta Sieradz31 Oct · away
Pick: Weszlo 42% · missed
D
Warta Sieradz2–2Pelikan Łowicz24 Oct · home
Pick: Warta Sieradz 62% · missed
W
Widzew II0–1Warta Sieradz21 Oct · away
Pick: Widzew II 46% · missed
W
Warta Sieradz2–1Wisła Płock II17 Oct · home
Pick: Warta Sieradz 48% · hit
L
Swit2–1Warta Sieradz29 Aug · away
Pick: Swit 49% · hit

Lechia T. Mazowiecki

W
Lechia T. Mazowiecki2–0Wigry Suwałki31 Oct · home
Pick: Lechia T. Mazowiecki 38% · hit
L
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki3–1Lechia T. Mazowiecki24 Oct · away
Pick: Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 42% · hit
D
Lechia T. Mazowiecki1–1Widzew II18 Oct · home
Pick: Lechia T. Mazowiecki 42% · missed
D
Jagiellonia II1–1Lechia T. Mazowiecki29 Aug · away
Pick: Jagiellonia II 51% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Warta Sieradz and Lechia T. Mazowiecki meet in III Liga - Group 1 on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Warta Sieradz win 44.4%, draw 21.8%, Lechia T. Mazowiecki win 33.8%. The pick is Warta Sieradz win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.1%. Both teams to score: 60.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.