ScoreProb
U19 Bundesliga Germany Preliminary 2026

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 vs Mainz 05 U19

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 Home · Elo 1,541
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Mainz 05 U19 Away · Elo 1,581
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Mainz 05 U19 win
Wehen Wiesbaden U19 win
29.8%
Draw
20.8%
Mainz 05 U19 winPick
49.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes68.9%
No31.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.577.2%
Under 2.522.8%

How much we know

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 history44 matches
Mainz 05 U19 history41 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Mainz 05 U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Mainz 05 U19 are rated 40 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,581 against 1,541. On rating alone Mainz 05 U19 would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Wehen Wiesbaden U19 score more

    2.43 goals a game over 44 matches for Wehen Wiesbaden U19, against 2.12 over 41 for Mainz 05 U19.

  • Mainz 05 U19 concede fewer

    Wehen Wiesbaden U19 concede 2.05 a game, Mainz 05 U19 1.51.

  • Wehen Wiesbaden U19 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    80% of Wehen Wiesbaden U19 matches, against 68% for Mainz 05 U19. The model puts this match at 77% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Wehen Wiesbaden U19
Mainz 05 U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1541.3
ELO
1581.0
44
ELO · Matches
41
1541.3
Current Team ELO
1581.0
1581.0
Current Opponent ELO
1541.3
-39.77
Current ELO Difference
39.77
0.44
Expected score
0.56
44
History Matches
41
0.05
Residual Mean
0.10
53.15
Overperformance
56.76
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.16
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.20
2.40
Goals for per game
1.80
3.60
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.80
3.20
Goals for per game
1.90
2.80
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
3.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.99
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.51
2.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
2.27
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
3.75
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.70
Overall performance9 signals
90
44
Matches
41
1.66
PPG
1.71
50.0%
Win rate
48.8%
15.9%
Draw rate
24.4%
34.1%
Loss rate
26.8%
93.2%
Over 1.5 rate
78.0%
79.5%
Over 2.5 rate
68.3%
65.9%
Over 3.5 rate
53.7%
2.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.23
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
20
1.73
PPG
1.60
54.5%
Win rate
45.0%
9.1%
Draw rate
25.0%
36.4%
Loss rate
30.0%
95.5%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
81.8%
Over 2.5 rate
65.0%
63.6%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.88
22
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.43
Goals for per game
2.12
86.4%
Scoring rate
82.9%
68.2%
BTTS rate
58.5%
2.73
Goals for per game
1.85
81.8%
Scoring rate
80.0%
54.5%
BTTS rate
60.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
44
History Matches
41
2.43
Goals Mean
2.12
1.76
Goals Std
1.56
86.4%
Scored 1+ rate
82.9%
61.4%
Scored 2+ rate
58.5%
45.5%
Scored 3+ rate
41.5%
2.73
Venue Goals Mean
1.85
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.05
Goals against per game
1.51
81.8%
Conceding rate
68.3%
1.77
Goals against per game
1.45
72.7%
Conceding rate
70.0%
5.33
Goals against per game
0.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
44
History Matches
41
2.05
Conceded Mean
1.51
1.65
Conceded Std
1.53
54.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.5%
36.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.0%
1.77
Venue Conceded Mean
1.45
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
31.7%
13.6%
Failed-to-score rate
17.1%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
31.7%
13.6%
Failed-to-score rate
17.1%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
31.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
44
History Matches
41
0.92
Result entropy
0.95
2.71
Goal Difference Std
2.23
8.44
Stability score
4.67
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
44
Eligible Matches
40
22
Lead Matches
16
77.3%
Lead Win Rate
81.3%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.88
13
Trailing Matches
10
30.8%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
23.1%
Trailing Win Rate
30.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
44
Halftime Coverage Matches
40
1.23
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.95
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
1.20
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.05
1.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.04
Rest days
76.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
14
Normal Rest History Matches
20
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.45
28
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.75
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.06
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.00
PPG
1.67
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
66.7%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.67
-4.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.33
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.82
Portability PPG Std
0.23
1.88
Portability PPG Range
0.55
37.83
Portability Score
68.86
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
44
Clean History Matches
41
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-39.77
PPG-0.05
GF0.31
GA0.53
PPG-1.67
PPG0.13
PPG0.00
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.31
Goals Std0.20
Scored 1+ rate3.4%
Scored 2+ rate2.8%
Scored 3+ rate4.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.88
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.48
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.53
Conceded Std0.12
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Conceded 2+ rate13.1%
Conceded 3+ rate14.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.32
Recent 10 Conceded Mean2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.52
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.48
Stability score3.77
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std2.05
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.03
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.19
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Second Half Goals For Mean0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.24
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-5.67
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.60
Portability PPG Range1.32
Portability Score-31.03
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.05
Long Rest History Matches10
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.31
Current Team ELO-39.77
Current Opponent ELO39.77
Current ELO Difference-79.55
Expected score-0.11
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.61
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Wehen Wiesbaden U19

W
Kaiserslautern U190–1Wehen Wiesbaden U191 Nov · away
Pick: Kaiserslautern U19 60% · missed
D
Wehen Wiesbaden U191–1Köln U1924 Oct · home
Pick: Köln U19 66% · missed
L
Darmstadt 98 U193–1Wehen Wiesbaden U1917 Oct · away
Pick: Darmstadt 98 U19 51% · hit
L
Wehen Wiesbaden U192–4Hamburger SV U1929 Aug · home
Pick: Wehen Wiesbaden U19 57% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Mainz 05 U19

L
Mainz 05 U190–3Kaiserslautern U1925 Oct · home
Pick: Mainz 05 U19 44% · missed
L
Köln U193–1Mainz 05 U1918 Oct · away
Pick: Köln U19 69% · hit
W
Babelsberg U190–8Mainz 05 U1930 Aug · away
Pick: Babelsberg U19 49% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Wehen Wiesbaden U19 and Mainz 05 U19 meet in U19 Bundesliga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Wehen Wiesbaden U19 win 29.8%, draw 20.8%, Mainz 05 U19 win 49.4%. The pick is Mainz 05 U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 77.2%. Both teams to score: 68.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.