ScoreProb
Eredivisie Netherlands Round 12 2026

Willem II vs PEC Zwolle

Willem II Home · Elo 1,537
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
PEC Zwolle Away · Elo 1,462
Koning Willem II Stadion, Tilburg Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Willem II win
Willem II winPick
45.4%
Draw
21.1%
PEC Zwolle win
33.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.8%
No42.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.6%
Under 2.537.4%

How much we know

Willem II history73 matches
PEC Zwolle history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Willem II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Willem II are rated 75 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,537 against 1,462. On rating alone Willem II would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.40 goals a game over 73 matches for Willem II, against 1.35 over 60 for PEC Zwolle.

  • Willem II concede fewer

    Willem II concede 1.42 a game, PEC Zwolle 1.97.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    56% of Willem II matches, against 58% for PEC Zwolle. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Willem II
PEC Zwolle
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1536.8
ELO
1462.0
73
ELO · Matches
60
1536.8
Current Team ELO
1462.0
1462.0
Current Opponent ELO
1536.8
74.79
Current ELO Difference
-74.79
0.61
Expected score
0.39
73
History Matches
60
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.03
52.55
Overperformance
47.75
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.60
1.40
Goals for per game
1.00
2.20
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
0.90
1.40
Goals for per game
1.10
1.60
Goals against per game
1.90
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.49
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.04
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.14
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.66
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.54
Overall performance9 signals
90
73
Matches
60
1.38
PPG
1.12
39.7%
Win rate
28.3%
19.2%
Draw rate
26.7%
41.1%
Loss rate
45.0%
80.8%
Over 1.5 rate
86.7%
56.2%
Over 2.5 rate
58.3%
27.4%
Over 3.5 rate
45.0%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.09
Venue performance10 signals
100
39
Matches
30
1.38
PPG
0.87
41.0%
Win rate
20.0%
15.4%
Draw rate
26.7%
43.6%
Loss rate
53.3%
82.1%
Over 1.5 rate
96.7%
59.0%
Over 2.5 rate
73.3%
25.6%
Over 3.5 rate
56.7%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.32
39
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.40
Goals for per game
1.35
82.2%
Scoring rate
76.7%
58.9%
BTTS rate
63.3%
1.46
Goals for per game
1.47
84.6%
Scoring rate
83.3%
61.5%
BTTS rate
76.7%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
100.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
73
History Matches
60
1.40
Goals Mean
1.35
1.17
Goals Std
1.06
82.2%
Scored 1+ rate
76.7%
37.0%
Scored 2+ rate
41.7%
12.3%
Scored 3+ rate
11.7%
1.46
Venue Goals Mean
1.47
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.42
Goals against per game
1.97
76.7%
Conceding rate
85.0%
1.41
Goals against per game
2.47
76.9%
Conceding rate
93.3%
4.00
Goals against per game
1.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
73
History Matches
60
1.42
Conceded Mean
1.97
1.20
Conceded Std
1.65
42.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
53.3%
12.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.7%
1.41
Venue Conceded Mean
2.47
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
17.8%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
6.7%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
17.8%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
23.1%
Clean-sheet rate
6.7%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
15.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
73
History Matches
60
0.95
Result entropy
0.97
1.92
Goal Difference Std
2.09
4.53
Stability score
2.68
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
73
Eligible Matches
60
26
Lead Matches
18
80.8%
Lead Win Rate
72.2%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.78
20
Trailing Matches
16
10.0%
Non-loss rate
18.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
73
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.75
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
0.64
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.84
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.18
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.19
Rest days
76.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.86
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
41
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.46
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.32
24
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.17
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.77
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
3
0.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
2
Current Competition Matches
3
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.67
7
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.59
Portability PPG Std
0.23
1.43
Portability PPG Range
0.65
46.06
Portability Score
68.27
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
73
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO74.79
PPG0.27
GF0.05
GA-0.54
PPG-1.00
PPG0.52
PPG0.80
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate8.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate16.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches13
Goals Mean0.05
Goals Std0.11
Scored 1+ rate5.5%
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate0.7%
Venue Goals Mean-0.01
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.55
History Matches13
Conceded Mean-0.54
Conceded Std-0.45
Clean-sheet rate8.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Conceded Mean-1.06
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.29
History Matches13
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.17
Stability score1.84
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.13
Eligible Matches13
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate8.5%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.09
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches13
First Half Goals For Mean0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.35
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.33
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.35
Portability PPG Range0.78
Portability Score-22.21
Rest days7.19
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Short Rest Points Per Match0.36
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.14
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.40
Current Team ELO74.79
Current Opponent ELO-74.79
Current ELO Difference149.6
Expected score0.21
History Matches13
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.80
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.09

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Willem II

L
PSV Eindhoven7–0Willem II31 Oct · away
Pick: PSV Eindhoven 62% · hit
W
Helmond Sport3–4Willem II27 Oct · away
Pick: Willem II 45% · hit
L
Willem II1–6Cambuur24 Oct · home
Pick: Willem II 51% · missed
L
Sparta Rotterdam3–2Willem II17 Oct · away
Pick: Sparta Rotterdam 46% · hit
D
Willem II2–2Heerenveen30 Aug · home
Pick: Willem II 39% · missed

PEC Zwolle

W
PEC Zwolle1–0ADO Den Haag1 Nov · home
Pick: PEC Zwolle 50% · hit
L
PEC Zwolle1–2FC OSS28 Oct · home
Pick: FC OSS 41% · hit
D
Utrecht1–1PEC Zwolle24 Oct · away
Pick: Utrecht 48% · missed
W
PEC Zwolle4–1GO Ahead Eagles18 Oct · home
Pick: GO Ahead Eagles 49% · missed
L
PEC Zwolle1–3NEC Nijmegen29 Aug · home
Pick: NEC Nijmegen 50% · hit

About this match

Willem II and PEC Zwolle meet in Eredivisie on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. The match is played at Koning Willem II Stadion, Tilburg. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Willem II win 45.4%, draw 21.1%, PEC Zwolle win 33.6%. The pick is Willem II win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.6%. Both teams to score: 57.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.