ScoreProb
1. Liga Classic - Group 3 Switzerland Group 3 - 13 2026

Winterthur II vs Locarno

Winterthur II Home · Elo 1,477
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Locarno Away · Elo 1,510
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Winterthur II win
Winterthur II winPick
60.7%
Draw
15.5%
Locarno win
23.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.8%
No36.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.572.7%
Under 2.527.3%

How much we know

Winterthur II history49 matches
Locarno history10 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (60.7%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Winterthur II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Locarno are rated 33 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,510 against 1,477. On rating alone Locarno would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Locarno score far more

    1.86 goals a game over 49 matches for Winterthur II, against 3.00 over 10 for Locarno.

  • Locarno concede fewer

    Winterthur II concede 1.71 a game, Locarno 1.30.

  • Locarno games more often go over 2.5 goals

    69% of Winterthur II matches, against 80% for Locarno. The model puts this match at 73% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Winterthur II
Locarno
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1477.2
ELO
1510.1
49
ELO · Matches
10
1477.2
Current Team ELO
1510.1
1510.1
Current Opponent ELO
1477.2
-32.84
Current ELO Difference
32.84
0.45
Expected score
0.55
49
History Matches
10
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.09
47.93
Overperformance
52.88
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.20
1.00
Goals for per game
1.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.60
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.80
1.60
Goals for per game
3.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.30
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.00
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.90
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.85
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.53
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
10
1.31
PPG
1.80
34.7%
Win rate
60.0%
26.5%
Draw rate
0.0%
38.8%
Loss rate
40.0%
87.8%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
69.4%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
46.9%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
2.21
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.53
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
3
1.70
PPG
1.00
47.8%
Win rate
33.3%
26.1%
Draw rate
0.0%
26.1%
Loss rate
66.7%
95.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
82.6%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
60.9%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
2.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.83
23
History Matches
3
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.86
Goals for per game
3.00
81.6%
Scoring rate
100.0%
63.3%
BTTS rate
70.0%
2.52
Goals for per game
2.67
87.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
65.2%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.33
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
100.0%
49
History Matches
10
1.86
Goals Mean
3.00
1.51
Goals Std
1.90
81.6%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
55.1%
Scored 2+ rate
80.0%
26.5%
Scored 3+ rate
40.0%
2.52
Venue Goals Mean
2.67
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.71
Goals against per game
1.30
77.6%
Conceding rate
70.0%
1.52
Goals against per game
1.67
78.3%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.33
Goals against per game
2.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
49
History Matches
10
1.71
Conceded Mean
1.30
1.37
Conceded Std
1.10
51.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.0%
30.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
1.52
Venue Conceded Mean
1.67
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
18.4%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
18.4%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
13.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
10
0.99
Result entropy
0.61
2.21
Goal Difference Std
2.53
1.09
Stability score
38.74
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
38
Eligible Matches
7
10
Lead Matches
3
90.0%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.67
14
Trailing Matches
3
21.4%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
38
Halftime Coverage Matches
7
0.79
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.89
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
1.03
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.86
0.82
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.04
Rest days
77.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
25
Normal Rest History Matches
3
1.20
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
21
Long Rest History Matches
6
1.43
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
0.00
33.3%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
66.7%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
4
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.25
Portability PPG Std
1.29
0.60
Portability PPG Range
2.57
66.94
Portability Score
28.00
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
10
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-32.84
PPG-0.49
GF-1.14
GA0.41
PPG1.00
PPG0.70
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches39
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate18.4%
History Matches20
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate13.0%
History Matches39
Goals Mean-1.14
Goals Std-0.39
Scored 1+ rate-0.18
Scored 2+ rate-0.25
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean-0.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.62
History Matches39
Conceded Mean0.41
Conceded Std0.27
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate11.0%
Conceded 3+ rate10.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.21
History Matches39
Result entropy0.38
Goal Difference Std-0.32
Stability score-37.65
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.68
Eligible Matches31
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate23.3%
Lead Points Retention0.23
Trailing Matches11
Non-loss rate21.4%
Trailing Win Rate7.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches31
First Half Goals For Mean-0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-1.04
Portability PPG Range-1.97
Portability Score38.94
Rest days0.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches22
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.20
Long Rest History Matches15
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.57
Current Team ELO-32.84
Current Opponent ELO32.84
Current ELO Difference-65.69
Expected score-0.09
History Matches39
Residual Mean-0.12
Overperformance-4.95
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Winterthur II

D
Dietikon2–2Winterthur II31 Oct · away
Pick: Dietikon 47% · missed
L
Winterthur II1–3Tuggen24 Oct · home
Pick: Tuggen 52% · hit
L
Eschen / Mauren4–0Winterthur II17 Oct · away
Pick: Eschen / Mauren 42% · hit
L
Winterthur II1–2St. Gallen II4 Oct · home
Pick: St. Gallen II 42% · hit
W
Winterthur II2–1Mendrisio29 Aug · home
Pick: Winterthur II 39% · hit

Locarno

L
Locarno0–2Collina d'Oro31 Oct · home
Pick: Collina d'Oro 39% · hit
D
Mendrisio0–0Locarno24 Oct · away
Pick: Mendrisio 65% · missed
W
Concordia Lausanne1–2Locarno18 Oct · away
Pick: Concordia Lausanne 41% · missed
D
Dietikon2–2Locarno29 Aug · away
Pick: Dietikon 62% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Winterthur II and Locarno meet in 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Winterthur II win 60.7%, draw 15.5%, Locarno win 23.8%. The pick is Winterthur II win. Over 2.5 goals: 72.7%. Both teams to score: 63.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.