ScoreProb
Non League Premier - Northern England Round 18 2026

Workington vs Ashton United

Workington Home · Elo 1,461
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ashton United Away · Elo 1,488
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ashton United win
Workington win
27.0%
Draw
26.7%
Ashton United winPick
46.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.1%
No46.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.2%
Under 2.549.8%

How much we know

Workington history64 matches
Ashton United history74 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.3%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Ashton United are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Ashton United are rated 27 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,488 against 1,461. On rating alone Ashton United would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.20 goals a game over 64 matches for Workington, against 1.23 over 74 for Ashton United.

  • Defences are close

    Workington concede 1.52 a game, Ashton United 1.36.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    47% of Workington matches, against 46% for Ashton United. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Workington
Ashton United
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1461.4
ELO
1488.4
64
ELO · Matches
74
1461.4
Current Team ELO
1488.4
1488.4
Current Opponent ELO
1461.4
-26.99
Current ELO Difference
26.99
0.46
Expected score
0.54
64
History Matches
74
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.01
48.13
Overperformance
49.45
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.60
1.60
Goals for per game
1.00
2.00
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.30
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.90
Goals against per game
1.10
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.27
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
74
1.08
PPG
1.28
28.1%
Win rate
33.8%
23.4%
Draw rate
27.0%
48.4%
Loss rate
39.2%
71.9%
Over 1.5 rate
77.0%
46.9%
Over 2.5 rate
45.9%
28.1%
Over 3.5 rate
23.0%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
Venue performance10 signals
100
33
Matches
37
1.33
PPG
1.05
36.4%
Win rate
24.3%
24.2%
Draw rate
32.4%
39.4%
Loss rate
43.2%
63.6%
Over 1.5 rate
75.7%
36.4%
Over 2.5 rate
43.2%
24.2%
Over 3.5 rate
24.3%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.33
33
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.20
Goals for per game
1.23
68.8%
Scoring rate
74.3%
53.1%
BTTS rate
58.1%
1.30
Goals for per game
1.16
72.7%
Scoring rate
75.7%
48.5%
BTTS rate
62.2%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.50
66.7%
Scoring rate
83.3%
66.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
64
History Matches
74
1.20
Goals Mean
1.23
1.13
Goals Std
1.03
68.8%
Scored 1+ rate
74.3%
32.8%
Scored 2+ rate
35.1%
14.1%
Scored 3+ rate
9.5%
1.30
Venue Goals Mean
1.16
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.52
Goals against per game
1.36
81.3%
Conceding rate
79.7%
1.09
Goals against per game
1.46
72.7%
Conceding rate
86.5%
2.00
Goals against per game
0.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
64
History Matches
74
1.52
Conceded Mean
1.36
1.17
Conceded Std
1.16
45.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.8%
17.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.5%
1.09
Venue Conceded Mean
1.46
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.3%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.7%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
13.5%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
24.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.3%
31.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.7%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
13.5%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
24.3%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
74
0.95
Result entropy
0.99
1.61
Goal Difference Std
1.64
4.61
Stability score
1.03
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
74
15
Lead Matches
23
46.7%
Lead Win Rate
65.2%
0.60
Lead Points Retention
0.74
20
Trailing Matches
21
20.0%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
74
0.48
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.72
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.81
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.84
Rest days
73.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
49
Normal Rest History Matches
61
1.22
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.30
10
Long Rest History Matches
9
0.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.78
Competition & season17 signals
170
6
Matches
6
1.17
PPG
1.83
33.3%
Win rate
50.0%
16.7%
Draw rate
33.3%
50.0%
Loss rate
16.7%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
16.7%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.34
6
Current Competition Matches
6
1.17
Current Competition PPG
1.83
-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.83
6
Competition Season Count
8
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.08
Portability PPG Std
0.39
0.19
Portability PPG Range
1.17
86.46
Portability Score
56.11
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
74
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-26.99
PPG-0.21
GF-0.03
GA0.15
PPG-0.67
PPG0.28
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate5.6%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate13.8%
Failed-to-score rate2.9%
History Matches-10
Goals Mean-0.03
Goals Std0.10
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate4.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.03
History Matches-10
Conceded Mean0.15
Conceded Std0.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate11.5%
Conceded 3+ rate3.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.37
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches-10
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.03
Stability score3.59
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.08
Eligible Matches-10
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate-0.19
Lead Points Retention-0.14
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.09
Trailing Win Rate5.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches-10
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.50
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.31
Portability PPG Range-0.98
Portability Score30.36
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-12
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.07
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.28
Current Team ELO-26.99
Current Opponent ELO26.99
Current ELO Difference-53.97
Expected score-0.08
History Matches-10
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Workington

W
Bury1–2Workington31 Oct · away
Pick: Bury 55% · missed
W
Workington3–2Cleethorpes Town27 Oct · home
Pick: Cleethorpes Town 41% · missed
W
Bamber Bridge1–2Workington17 Oct · away
Pick: Bamber Bridge 40% · missed
L
Workington1–2Whitby Town13 Oct · home
Pick: Workington 54% · missed
D
Warrington Town2–2Workington6 Oct · away
Pick: Warrington Town 60% · missed

Ashton United

L
Ashton United0–1Warrington Town3 Nov · home
Pick: Ashton United 47% · missed
L
Ashton United1–2Rylands31 Oct · home
Pick: Ashton United 56% · missed
W
Ashton United1–0Redcar Athletic24 Oct · home
Pick: Ashton United 62% · hit
L
Avro3–2Ashton United21 Oct · away
Pick: Avro 47% · hit
L
Ashton United1–2Redcar Athletic17 Oct · home
Pick: Ashton United 40% · missed

About this match

Workington and Ashton United meet in Non League Premier - Northern on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Workington win 27.0%, draw 26.7%, Ashton United win 46.3%. The pick is Ashton United win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.2%. Both teams to score: 53.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.