ScoreProb
III Liga - Group 3 Poland Group III - 16 2026

Zaglebie Sosnowiec vs Warta Gorzów

Zaglebie Sosnowiec Home · Elo 1,452
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Warta Gorzów Away · Elo 1,549
ArcelorMittal Park, Sosnowiec Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Zaglebie Sosnowiec win
Zaglebie Sosnowiec winPick
55.7%
Draw
20.0%
Warta Gorzów win
24.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.0%
No45.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.1%
Under 2.539.9%

How much we know

Zaglebie Sosnowiec history71 matches
Warta Gorzów history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.7%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Zaglebie Sosnowiec are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Warta Gorzów are rated 97 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,549 against 1,452. On rating alone Warta Gorzów would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.39 goals a game over 71 matches for Zaglebie Sosnowiec, against 1.45 over 60 for Warta Gorzów.

  • Warta Gorzów concede fewer

    Zaglebie Sosnowiec concede 1.76 a game, Warta Gorzów 1.32.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    62% of Zaglebie Sosnowiec matches, against 55% for Warta Gorzów. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Warta Gorzów
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1451.8
ELO
1548.9
71
ELO · Matches
60
1451.8
Current Team ELO
1548.9
1548.9
Current Opponent ELO
1451.8
-97.04
Current ELO Difference
97.04
0.36
Expected score
0.64
71
History Matches
60
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.04
47.85
Overperformance
52.69
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.60
2.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.60
1.70
Goals for per game
1.10
1.60
Goals against per game
1.30
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.27
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.69
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.55
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.47
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.78
Overall performance9 signals
90
71
Matches
60
1.10
PPG
1.58
28.2%
Win rate
43.3%
25.4%
Draw rate
28.3%
46.5%
Loss rate
28.3%
83.1%
Over 1.5 rate
76.7%
62.0%
Over 2.5 rate
55.0%
40.8%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
2.08
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
31
1.24
PPG
1.39
32.4%
Win rate
35.5%
27.0%
Draw rate
32.3%
40.5%
Loss rate
32.3%
86.5%
Over 1.5 rate
67.7%
67.6%
Over 2.5 rate
58.1%
43.2%
Over 3.5 rate
38.7%
2.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.12
37
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.39
Goals for per game
1.45
74.6%
Scoring rate
80.0%
59.2%
BTTS rate
56.7%
1.49
Goals for per game
1.29
78.4%
Scoring rate
71.0%
56.8%
BTTS rate
48.4%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.20
80.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
71
History Matches
60
1.39
Goals Mean
1.45
1.25
Goals Std
1.26
74.6%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
36.6%
Scored 2+ rate
36.7%
19.7%
Scored 3+ rate
16.7%
1.49
Venue Goals Mean
1.29
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.76
Goals against per game
1.32
78.9%
Conceding rate
70.0%
1.73
Goals against per game
1.55
73.0%
Conceding rate
67.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
71
History Matches
60
1.76
Conceded Mean
1.32
1.46
Conceded Std
1.24
49.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.0%
29.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.3%
1.73
Venue Conceded Mean
1.55
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
25.4%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
27.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
21.6%
Failed-to-score rate
29.0%
60.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
25.4%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
27.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
21.6%
Failed-to-score rate
29.0%
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
71
History Matches
60
0.97
Result entropy
0.98
2.08
Goal Difference Std
1.92
3.43
Stability score
1.97
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
69
Eligible Matches
57
16
Lead Matches
19
68.8%
Lead Win Rate
89.5%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.89
24
Trailing Matches
16
25.0%
Non-loss rate
31.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
69
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.81
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.86
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.08
Rest days
77.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.33
38
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.05
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.32
27
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.04
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.84
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
2.37
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.60
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.40
7
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.37
Portability PPG Std
0.46
1.00
Portability PPG Range
1.40
57.16
Portability Score
52.17
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
71
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-97.04
PPG-0.48
GF-0.06
GA0.44
PPG0.40
PPG-0.14
PPG0.20
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate5.4%
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches11
Goals Mean-0.06
Goals Std-0.01
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate0.00
Scored 3+ rate3.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.57
History Matches11
Conceded Mean0.44
Conceded Std0.21
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate9.3%
Conceded 3+ rate16.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.18
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.13
History Matches11
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.17
Stability score1.47
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.69
Eligible Matches12
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.21
Lead Points Retention-0.14
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches12
First Half Goals For Mean0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.27
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.30
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.40
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.08
Portability PPG Range-0.40
Portability Score4.99
Rest days0.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.27
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.80
Current Team ELO-97.04
Current Opponent ELO97.04
Current ELO Difference-194.1
Expected score-0.27
History Matches11
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.84
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

W
Stilon Gorzów0–2Zaglebie Sosnowiec31 Oct · away
Pick: Zaglebie Sosnowiec 37% · hit
W
Zaglebie Sosnowiec3–1Miedź Legnica II23 Oct · home
Pick: Zaglebie Sosnowiec 59% · hit
W
Zagłębie Lubin II0–1Zaglebie Sosnowiec17 Oct · away
Pick: Zagłębie Lubin II 41% · missed
W
Zaglebie Sosnowiec1–0Rakow II14 Oct · home
Pick: Zaglebie Sosnowiec 70% · hit
L
Sparta Katowice1–0Zaglebie Sosnowiec29 Aug · away
Pick: Sparta Katowice 45% · hit

Warta Gorzów

L
Miedź Legnica II6–0Warta Gorzów30 Oct · away
Pick: Miedź Legnica II 45% · hit
L
Warta Gorzów0–2Kluczbork24 Oct · home
Pick: Warta Gorzów 45% · missed
L
Rakow II3–2Warta Gorzów17 Oct · away
Pick: Warta Gorzów 54% · missed
L
Warta Gorzów0–2Zagłębie Lubin II29 Aug · home
Pick: Zagłębie Lubin II 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Zaglebie Sosnowiec and Warta Gorzów meet in III Liga - Group 3 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. The match is played at ArcelorMittal Park, Sosnowiec. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Zaglebie Sosnowiec win 55.7%, draw 20.0%, Warta Gorzów win 24.3%. The pick is Zaglebie Sosnowiec win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.1%. Both teams to score: 55.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.