ScoreProb
1 Lyga Lithuania Round 30 2026

Žalgiris II vs Be1 NFA

Žalgiris II Home · Elo 1,519
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Be1 NFA Away · Elo 1,504
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Žalgiris II win
Žalgiris II winPick
37.4%
Draw
26.0%
Be1 NFA win
36.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.2%
No41.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.5%
Under 2.541.5%

How much we know

Žalgiris II history50 matches
Be1 NFA history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.4%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Žalgiris II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,519 against 1,504. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Žalgiris II score more

    1.70 goals a game over 50 matches for Žalgiris II, against 1.25 over 56 for Be1 NFA.

  • Defences are close

    Žalgiris II concede 1.54 a game, Be1 NFA 1.54.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    62% of Žalgiris II matches, against 59% for Be1 NFA. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Žalgiris II
Be1 NFA
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1518.6
ELO
1503.9
50
ELO · Matches
56
1518.6
Current Team ELO
1503.9
1503.9
Current Opponent ELO
1518.6
14.74
Current ELO Difference
-14.74
0.52
Expected score
0.48
50
History Matches
56
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.01
51.24
Overperformance
49.46
0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
1.20
2.40
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.80
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.50
2.10
Goals for per game
0.90
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
70.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.14
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.08
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
1.22
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
56
1.52
PPG
1.21
42.0%
Win rate
35.7%
26.0%
Draw rate
14.3%
32.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
82.0%
Over 1.5 rate
73.2%
62.0%
Over 2.5 rate
58.9%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.9%
1.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.04
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
32
1.80
PPG
1.13
52.0%
Win rate
34.4%
24.0%
Draw rate
9.4%
24.0%
Loss rate
56.3%
72.0%
Over 1.5 rate
68.8%
68.0%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
44.0%
Over 3.5 rate
31.3%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.09
25
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.70
Goals for per game
1.25
82.0%
Scoring rate
62.5%
66.0%
BTTS rate
44.6%
1.92
Goals for per game
1.16
88.0%
Scoring rate
56.3%
68.0%
BTTS rate
34.4%
1.67
Goals for per game
1.65
81.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
57.1%
BTTS rate
50.0%
50
History Matches
56
1.70
Goals Mean
1.25
1.32
Goals Std
1.29
82.0%
Scored 1+ rate
62.5%
46.0%
Scored 2+ rate
37.5%
26.0%
Scored 3+ rate
16.1%
1.92
Venue Goals Mean
1.16
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.54
Goals against per game
1.54
80.0%
Conceding rate
76.8%
1.44
Goals against per game
1.53
72.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.48
Goals against per game
1.20
71.4%
Conceding rate
70.0%
50
History Matches
56
1.54
Conceded Mean
1.54
1.25
Conceded Std
1.30
42.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.1%
20.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.0%
1.44
Venue Conceded Mean
1.53
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.2%
18.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
12.0%
Failed-to-score rate
43.8%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.2%
18.0%
Failed-to-score rate
37.5%
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
12.0%
Failed-to-score rate
43.8%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
23.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
56
0.98
Result entropy
0.90
1.84
Goal Difference Std
2.04
1.77
Stability score
9.68
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
55
19
Lead Matches
12
68.4%
Lead Win Rate
91.7%
0.74
Lead Points Retention
0.92
19
Trailing Matches
16
36.8%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
10.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.78
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.74
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
0.92
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.79
Rest days
77.85
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
22
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.45
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.19
26
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.65
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.32
Competition & season17 signals
170
21
Matches
20
1.62
PPG
1.90
47.6%
Win rate
60.0%
19.0%
Draw rate
10.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
30.0%
81.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
38.1%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
1.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
21
Current Competition Matches
20
1.62
Current Competition PPG
1.90
0.19
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.45
2
Competition Season Count
6
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.09
Portability PPG Std
0.78
0.17
Portability PPG Range
1.90
85.41
Portability Score
39.16
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO14.74
PPG0.31
GF0.45
GA0.00
PPG-0.28
PPG0.68
PPG1.40
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate3.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.32
History Matches-6
Goals Mean0.45
Goals Std0.03
Scored 1+ rate19.5%
Scored 2+ rate8.5%
Scored 3+ rate9.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.76
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.31
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean0.00
Conceded Std-0.04
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate0.9%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.21
History Matches-6
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.20
Stability score-7.91
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.39
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate-0.23
Lead Points Retention-0.18
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate36.8%
Trailing Win Rate10.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-0.28
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.26
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.69
Portability PPG Range-1.73
Portability Score46.25
Rest days-4.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.26
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.33
Current Team ELO14.74
Current Opponent ELO-14.74
Current ELO Difference29.48
Expected score0.04
History Matches-6
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.78
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Žalgiris II

D
Jonava2–2Žalgiris II31 Oct · away
Pick: Jonava 41% · missed
W
Garliava0–2Žalgiris II23 Oct · away
Pick: Garliava 45% · missed
W
Žalgiris II4–3Transinvest 225 Aug · home
Pick: Žalgiris II 68% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Be1 NFA

D
Be1 NFA1–1Babrungas30 Oct · home
Pick: Babrungas 48% · missed
W
Tauras1–2Be1 NFA24 Oct · away
Pick: Tauras 54% · missed
W
Be1 NFA2–0Neptūną Klaipėda16 Oct · home
Pick: Be1 NFA 45% · hit
W
Ekranas0–5Be1 NFA29 Aug · away
Pick: Be1 NFA 58% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Žalgiris II and Be1 NFA meet in 1 Lyga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Žalgiris II win 37.4%, draw 26.0%, Be1 NFA win 36.6%. The pick is Žalgiris II win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.5%. Both teams to score: 58.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.