ScoreProb
Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Spain Group 2 - 11 2026

Zaragoza vs Huesca

Zaragoza Home · Elo 1,472
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Huesca Away · Elo 1,479
Ibercaja Estadio, Zaragoza Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Huesca win
Zaragoza win
33.8%
Draw
29.5%
Huesca winPick
36.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.9%
No49.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.6%
Under 2.550.4%

How much we know

Zaragoza history73 matches
Huesca history75 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Huesca are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,472 against 1,479. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.08 goals a game over 73 matches for Zaragoza, against 1.20 over 75 for Huesca.

  • Defences are close

    Zaragoza concede 1.42 a game, Huesca 1.32.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    44% of Zaragoza matches, against 45% for Huesca. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Zaragoza
Huesca
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1472.2
ELO
1479.0
73
ELO · Matches
75
1472.2
Current Team ELO
1479.0
1479.0
Current Opponent ELO
1472.2
-6.78
Current ELO Difference
6.78
0.49
Expected score
0.51
73
History Matches
75
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.01
48.54
Overperformance
49.01
0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
2.00
2.00
Goals for per game
2.00
1.00
Goals against per game
0.80
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.50
1.50
Goals for per game
1.40
1.30
Goals against per game
0.80
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
0.81
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.54
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.56
Overall performance9 signals
90
73
Matches
75
1.14
PPG
1.28
28.8%
Win rate
34.7%
27.4%
Draw rate
24.0%
43.8%
Loss rate
41.3%
72.6%
Over 1.5 rate
72.0%
43.8%
Over 2.5 rate
45.3%
23.3%
Over 3.5 rate
22.7%
1.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
37
1.17
PPG
1.00
27.8%
Win rate
27.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
18.9%
38.9%
Loss rate
54.1%
69.4%
Over 1.5 rate
70.3%
38.9%
Over 2.5 rate
45.9%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
21.6%
1.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
36
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.08
Goals for per game
1.20
71.2%
Scoring rate
80.0%
58.9%
BTTS rate
56.0%
1.06
Goals for per game
1.05
69.4%
Scoring rate
70.3%
52.8%
BTTS rate
45.9%
73
History Matches
75
1.08
Goals Mean
1.20
0.89
Goals Std
0.89
71.2%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
30.1%
Scored 2+ rate
29.3%
6.8%
Scored 3+ rate
9.3%
1.06
Venue Goals Mean
1.05
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.42
Goals against per game
1.32
80.8%
Conceding rate
70.7%
1.31
Goals against per game
1.51
72.2%
Conceding rate
67.6%
73
History Matches
75
1.42
Conceded Mean
1.32
1.17
Conceded Std
1.23
38.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.3%
12.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.3%
1.31
Venue Conceded Mean
1.51
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
19.2%
Clean-sheet rate
29.3%
28.8%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
30.6%
Failed-to-score rate
29.7%
19.2%
Clean-sheet rate
29.3%
28.8%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
30.6%
Failed-to-score rate
29.7%
19.2%
Clean-sheet rate
29.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
73
History Matches
75
0.98
Result entropy
0.98
1.39
Goal Difference Std
1.51
2.18
Stability score
2.15
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
73
Eligible Matches
74
11
Lead Matches
20
90.9%
Lead Win Rate
70.0%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.73
21
Trailing Matches
23
33.3%
Non-loss rate
21.7%
4.8%
Trailing Win Rate
13.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
73
Halftime Coverage Matches
74
0.38
First Half Goals For Mean
0.46
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
0.70
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.82
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.08
Rest days
77.16
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
6
0.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.83
40
Normal Rest History Matches
43
1.10
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
28
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.18
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.64
Portability PPG Std
0.59
1.48
Portability PPG Range
1.43
43.93
Portability Score
46.01
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
73
Clean History Matches
75
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-6.78
PPG-0.14
GF-0.12
GA0.10
PPG0.17
PPG0.40
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate8.8%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate0.8%
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.12
Goals Std-0.01
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate0.8%
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.47
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.10
Conceded Std-0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate1.0%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.15
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.12
Stability score0.03
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.03
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate20.9%
Lead Points Retention0.21
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate11.6%
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.05
Portability PPG Range0.05
Portability Score-2.07
Rest days-0.07
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.08
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.23
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.18
Current Team ELO-6.78
Current Opponent ELO6.78
Current ELO Difference-13.57
Expected score-0.02
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.46
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Zaragoza

D
Zaragoza2–2Villarreal II31 Oct · home
Pick: Zaragoza 48% · missed
W
Tudelano0–4Zaragoza27 Oct · away
Pick: Zaragoza 46% · hit
W
Europa Fc0–1Zaragoza23 Oct · away
Pick: Zaragoza 37% · hit
D
Real Murcia0–0Zaragoza18 Oct · away
Pick: Real Murcia 37% · missed
W
Zaragoza4–1Teruel4 Oct · home
Pick: Zaragoza 40% · hit

Huesca

W
Huesca2–0Gimnastic2 Nov · home
Pick: Huesca 42% · hit
D
Huesca1–1Antequera24 Oct · home
Pick: Huesca 54% · missed
D
Alcorcon1–1Huesca16 Oct · away
Pick: Huesca 41% · missed
W
Huesca3–1Europa Fc4 Oct · home
Pick: Huesca 44% · hit
W
Huesca1–0Sant Andreu29 Aug · home
Pick: Huesca 43% · hit

About this match

Zaragoza and Huesca meet in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. The match is played at Ibercaja Estadio, Zaragoza. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Zaragoza win 33.8%, draw 29.5%, Huesca win 36.8%. The pick is Huesca win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.6%. Both teams to score: 50.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.