ScoreProb
Primera División RFEF - Group 2 Spain Group 2 - 11 2026

FC Cartagena vs Sant Andreu

FC Cartagena Home · Elo 1,499
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sant Andreu Away · Elo 1,604
Estadio Municipal Cartagonova, Cartagena Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sant Andreu win
FC Cartagena win
29.6%
Draw
31.0%
Sant Andreu winPick
39.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.3%
No51.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.7%
Under 2.554.3%

How much we know

FC Cartagena history62 matches
Sant Andreu history60 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.5%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Sant Andreu are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Sant Andreu are rated 105 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,604 against 1,499. On rating alone Sant Andreu would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Sant Andreu score more

    0.98 goals a game over 62 matches for FC Cartagena, against 1.50 over 60 for Sant Andreu.

  • Sant Andreu concede fewer

    FC Cartagena concede 1.32 a game, Sant Andreu 0.93.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    45% of FC Cartagena matches, against 52% for Sant Andreu. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 19 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Cartagena
Sant Andreu
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1499.4
ELO
1604.3
62
ELO · Matches
60
1499.4
Current Team ELO
1604.3
1604.3
Current Opponent ELO
1499.4
-104.9
Current ELO Difference
104.9
0.35
Expected score
0.65
62
History Matches
60
0.00
Residual Mean
0.08
50.20
Overperformance
56.27
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
1.80
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.40
1.30
Goals for per game
1.00
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.89
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.58
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.41
Overall performance9 signals
90
62
Matches
60
1.16
PPG
1.70
30.6%
Win rate
46.7%
24.2%
Draw rate
30.0%
45.2%
Loss rate
23.3%
62.9%
Over 1.5 rate
68.3%
45.2%
Over 2.5 rate
51.7%
22.6%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
31
1.58
PPG
1.48
45.2%
Win rate
38.7%
22.6%
Draw rate
32.3%
32.3%
Loss rate
29.0%
54.8%
Over 1.5 rate
64.5%
41.9%
Over 2.5 rate
51.6%
22.6%
Over 3.5 rate
29.0%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.42
31
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.98
Goals for per game
1.50
61.3%
Scoring rate
73.3%
40.3%
BTTS rate
55.0%
1.19
Goals for per game
1.39
67.7%
Scoring rate
67.7%
35.5%
BTTS rate
58.1%
62
History Matches
60
0.98
Goals Mean
1.50
0.94
Goals Std
1.26
61.3%
Scored 1+ rate
73.3%
30.6%
Scored 2+ rate
46.7%
6.5%
Scored 3+ rate
21.7%
1.19
Venue Goals Mean
1.39
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.32
Goals against per game
0.93
66.1%
Conceding rate
68.3%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.06
58.1%
Conceding rate
77.4%
62
History Matches
60
1.32
Conceded Mean
0.93
1.20
Conceded Std
0.79
45.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
21.7%
16.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.3%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.06
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
33.9%
Clean-sheet rate
31.7%
38.7%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
41.9%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
32.3%
Failed-to-score rate
32.3%
33.9%
Clean-sheet rate
31.7%
38.7%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
41.9%
Clean-sheet rate
22.6%
32.3%
Failed-to-score rate
32.3%
33.9%
Clean-sheet rate
31.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
62
History Matches
60
0.97
Result entropy
0.96
1.46
Goal Difference Std
1.41
3.08
Stability score
3.84
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
62
Eligible Matches
60
14
Lead Matches
17
64.3%
Lead Win Rate
82.4%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
0.88
16
Trailing Matches
17
6.3%
Non-loss rate
52.9%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
23.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.55
First Half Goals For Mean
0.53
0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
0.44
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.97
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
80.41
Rest days
80.03
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
38
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.26
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.85
21
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.10
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.46
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.43
Portability PPG Std
0.49
1.06
Portability PPG Range
1.27
53.70
Portability Score
50.46
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
62
Clean History Matches
60
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-104.9
PPG-0.54
GF-0.52
GA0.39
PPG0.10
PPG-0.20
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate2.2%
Failed-to-score rate12.0%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate19.4%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.52
Goals Std-0.32
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate-0.16
Scored 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Goals Mean-0.19
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.10
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.39
Conceded Std0.41
Clean-sheet rate2.2%
Conceded 2+ rate23.5%
Conceded 3+ rate12.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.06
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.13
History Matches2
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.05
Stability score-0.76
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.16
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate-0.18
Lead Points Retention-0.19
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.47
Trailing Win Rate-0.24
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.53
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.06
Portability PPG Range-0.22
Portability Score3.24
Rest days0.38
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.50
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.59
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.36
Current Team ELO-104.9
Current Opponent ELO104.9
Current ELO Difference-209.9
Expected score-0.29
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.08
Overperformance-6.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC Cartagena

L
Real Madrid II2–0FC Cartagena31 Oct · away
Pick: Real Madrid II 53% · hit
L
Villarreal II4–1FC Cartagena25 Oct · away
Pick: Villarreal II 49% · hit
W
FC Cartagena3–0Europa Fc16 Oct · home
Pick: Europa Fc 40% · missed
W
FC Cartagena1–0Real Murcia7 Oct · home
Pick: Real Murcia 44% · missed
W
Algeciras1–3FC Cartagena29 Aug · away
Pick: Algeciras 36% · missed

Sant Andreu

W
Sant Andreu2–0Teruel31 Oct · home
Pick: Sant Andreu 40% · hit
L
Rayo Majadahonda2–1Sant Andreu24 Oct · away
Pick: Sant Andreu 36% · missed
D
Sant Andreu2–2Juventud Torremolinos18 Oct · home
Pick: Sant Andreu 52% · missed
L
Hércules1–0Sant Andreu12 Oct · away
Pick: Hércules 38% · hit
L
Huesca1–0Sant Andreu29 Aug · away
Pick: Huesca 43% · hit

About this match

FC Cartagena and Sant Andreu meet in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:45 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Municipal Cartagonova, Cartagena. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: FC Cartagena win 29.6%, draw 31.0%, Sant Andreu win 39.5%. The pick is Sant Andreu win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.7%. Both teams to score: 48.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.