ScoreProb
FKF Premier League Kenya Round 6 2026

3K vs AFC Leopards

3K Home · Elo 1,618
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
AFC Leopards Away · Elo 1,581
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: 3K win
3K winPick
47.7%
Draw
28.6%
AFC Leopards win
23.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.0%
No52.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.544.3%
Under 2.555.7%

How much we know

3K history56 matches
AFC Leopards history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.7%). Picks in that band won 45.5% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,228 matches.

Why 3K are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • 3K are rated 37 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,618 against 1,581. On rating alone 3K would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • 3K score more

    1.54 goals a game over 56 matches for 3K, against 1.18 over 50 for AFC Leopards.

  • AFC Leopards concede fewer

    3K concede 0.88 a game, AFC Leopards 0.74.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    43% of 3K matches, against 38% for AFC Leopards. The model puts this match at 44% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 13 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
3K
AFC Leopards@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1618.1
ELO
1581.4
56
ELO · Matches
50
1618.1
Current Team ELO
1581.4
1581.4
Current Opponent ELO
1618.1
36.76
Current ELO Difference
-36.76
0.55
Expected score
0.45
56
History Matches
50
0.10
Residual Mean
0.08
57.67
Overperformance
55.94
0.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.80
1.20
Goals for per game
1.60
0.80
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.40
PPG
1.80
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
0.80
Goals against per game
1.00
70.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.08
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.75
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
0.89
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.54
Overall performance9 signals
90
56
Matches
50
1.84
PPG
1.76
55.4%
Win rate
48.0%
17.9%
Draw rate
32.0%
26.8%
Loss rate
20.0%
73.2%
Over 1.5 rate
56.0%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
38.0%
17.9%
Over 3.5 rate
14.0%
1.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.37
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
24
2.39
PPG
1.79
75.0%
Win rate
50.0%
14.3%
Draw rate
29.2%
10.7%
Loss rate
20.8%
78.6%
Over 1.5 rate
58.3%
46.4%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.44
28
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.54
Goals for per game
1.18
78.6%
Scoring rate
66.0%
48.2%
BTTS rate
42.0%
1.93
Goals for per game
1.21
92.9%
Scoring rate
70.8%
50.0%
BTTS rate
37.5%
56
History Matches
50
1.54
Goals Mean
1.18
1.15
Goals Std
1.14
78.6%
Scored 1+ rate
66.0%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
36.0%
19.6%
Scored 3+ rate
10.0%
1.93
Venue Goals Mean
1.21
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.88
Goals against per game
0.74
62.5%
Conceding rate
54.0%
0.71
Goals against per game
0.75
53.6%
Conceding rate
50.0%
56
History Matches
50
0.88
Conceded Mean
0.74
0.80
Conceded Std
0.87
23.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
14.0%
1.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
4.0%
0.71
Venue Conceded Mean
0.75
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
46.0%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
34.0%
46.4%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
7.1%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
46.0%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
34.0%
46.4%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
7.1%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
46.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
56
History Matches
50
0.90
Result entropy
0.95
1.38
Goal Difference Std
1.37
10.08
Stability score
5.44
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
50
26
Lead Matches
15
84.6%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
1.00
8
Trailing Matches
6
12.5%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
50
0.96
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.28
0.58
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.54
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
147.1
Rest days
160.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
4
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
37
Normal Rest History Matches
22
1.78
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.86
16
Long Rest History Matches
23
2.06
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.39
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.29
Portability PPG Std
0.19
0.58
Portability PPG Range
0.38
63.22
Portability Score
72.34
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
56
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO36.76
PPG0.08
GF0.36
GA0.14
PPG0.60
PPG0.00
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches6
Goals Mean0.36
Goals Std0.01
Scored 1+ rate12.6%
Scored 2+ rate14.0%
Scored 3+ rate9.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.72
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.33
History Matches6
Conceded Mean0.14
Conceded Std-0.06
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate9.2%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.04
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.25
History Matches6
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.01
Stability score4.64
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.06
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.64
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate-0.15
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.38
Trailing Win Rate-0.04
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.10
Portability PPG Range0.20
Portability Score-9.12
Rest days-12.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.50
Normal Rest History Matches15
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.08
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.67
Current Team ELO36.76
Current Opponent ELO-36.76
Current ELO Difference73.53
Expected score0.11
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.73
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.26

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

3K

W
Posta Rangers FC1–23K2 Nov · away
Pick: 3K 41% · hit
L
APS Bomet3–03K28 Oct · away
Pick: 3K 39% · missed
W
3K2–1Murang'a SEAL25 Oct · home
Pick: 3K 47% · hit
D
Bandari1–13K19 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 36% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

AFC Leopards

D
AFC Leopards0–0Shabana25 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 37% · hit
W
Kenya Police1–2AFC Leopards20 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

3K and AFC Leopards meet in FKF Premier League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:15 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: 3K win 47.7%, draw 28.6%, AFC Leopards win 23.7%. The pick is 3K win. Over 2.5 goals: 44.3%. Both teams to score: 48.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.