ScoreProb
FKF Premier League Kenya Round 6 2026

Mathare United vs Posta Rangers FC

Mathare United Home · Elo 1,483
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Posta Rangers FC Away · Elo 1,473
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Mathare United win
Mathare United winPick
34.6%
Draw
31.5%
Posta Rangers FC win
33.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.2%
No50.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.541.3%
Under 2.558.7%

How much we know

Mathare United history51 matches
Posta Rangers FC history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (34.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Mathare United are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,483 against 1,473. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    0.92 goals a game over 51 matches for Mathare United, against 0.96 over 51 for Posta Rangers FC.

  • Mathare United concede fewer

    Mathare United concede 1.06 a game, Posta Rangers FC 1.20.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    33% of Mathare United matches, against 37% for Posta Rangers FC. The model puts this match at 41% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 31 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Mathare United
Posta Rangers FC@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1483.0
ELO
1472.5
51
ELO · Matches
51
1483.0
Current Team ELO
1472.5
1472.5
Current Opponent ELO
1483.0
10.43
Current ELO Difference
-10.43
0.52
Expected score
0.48
51
History Matches
51
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.03
48.72
Overperformance
47.73
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.20
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.89
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.60
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.60
Overall performance9 signals
90
51
Matches
51
1.24
PPG
1.14
31.4%
Win rate
25.5%
29.4%
Draw rate
37.3%
39.2%
Loss rate
37.3%
60.8%
Over 1.5 rate
74.5%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
37.3%
11.8%
Over 3.5 rate
9.8%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.29
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
27
1.52
PPG
1.11
48.0%
Win rate
25.9%
8.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
44.0%
Loss rate
40.7%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
44.0%
Over 2.5 rate
44.4%
12.0%
Over 3.5 rate
11.1%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
25
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.92
Goals for per game
0.96
66.7%
Scoring rate
64.7%
45.1%
BTTS rate
51.0%
1.16
Goals for per game
0.96
68.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
40.0%
BTTS rate
55.6%
51
History Matches
51
0.92
Goals Mean
0.96
0.90
Goals Std
0.84
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
64.7%
15.7%
Scored 2+ rate
29.4%
7.8%
Scored 3+ rate
2.0%
1.16
Venue Goals Mean
0.96
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.06
Goals against per game
1.20
66.7%
Conceding rate
78.4%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.33
64.0%
Conceding rate
81.5%
51
History Matches
51
1.06
Conceded Mean
1.20
0.92
Conceded Std
0.86
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
5.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.8%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
21.6%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
32.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
21.6%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
32.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
21.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
51
History Matches
51
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.30
Goal Difference Std
1.29
0.72
Stability score
1.32
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
51
Eligible Matches
51
7
Lead Matches
16
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.67
16
Trailing Matches
15
31.3%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
18.8%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
0.24
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.69
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.41
0.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
160.0
Rest days
160.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
26
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.23
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.12
21
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.21
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.04
Portability PPG Std
0.06
0.09
Portability PPG Range
0.12
91.89
Portability Score
89.47
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
51
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO10.43
PPG0.10
GF-0.04
GA-0.14
PPG0.41
PPG-0.20
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate11.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate17.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.04
Goals Std0.06
Scored 1+ rate2.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate5.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.11
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.14
Conceded Std0.05
Clean-sheet rate11.8%
Conceded 2+ rate0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.21
History Matches0
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.01
Stability score-0.60
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.00
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate21.4%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate11.3%
Trailing Win Rate12.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.01
Portability PPG Range-0.03
Portability Score2.42
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.12
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.08
Current Team ELO10.43
Current Opponent ELO-10.43
Current ELO Difference20.87
Expected score0.03
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.99
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Mathare United

L
Ulinzi Stars2–1Mathare United2 Nov · away
Pick: Draw 37% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Posta Rangers FC

L
Posta Rangers FC1–23K2 Nov · home
Pick: 3K 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Mathare United and Posta Rangers FC meet in FKF Premier League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Mathare United win 34.6%, draw 31.5%, Posta Rangers FC win 33.9%. The pick is Mathare United win. Over 2.5 goals: 41.3%. Both teams to score: 49.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.